176675789.30 teams 30 days dallas mavericks

Welcome to my 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions.

Subscribe now

Notable Additions: Cooper Flagg, D’Angelo Russell

Notable Subtractions: Spencer Dinwiddie

Depth Chart:

PG: D’Angelo Russell / Dante Exum / Brandon Williams / Ryan Nembhard

SG: Klay Thompson / Max Christie / Jaden Hardy / Kyrie Irving

SF: Cooper Flagg / Naji Marshall / Miles Kelly

PF: Anthony Davis / P.J. Washington / Caleb Martin

C: Dereck Lively / Daniel Gafford / Dwight Powell

Roster Hierarchy:

Franchise: Cooper Flagg

Core: Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively

Key Rotation: P.J. Washington, Klay Thompson, D’Angelo Russell, Dante Exum, Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall

Rotation: Max Christie, Jaden Hardy, Caleb Martin, Dwight Powell, Brandon Williams

Development: Ryan Nembhard, Miles Kelly

Cryo Chamber: Kyrie Irving

Offseason Overview:

There’s a clear path that franchises typically choose when they trade away their franchise cornerstone, opting to punt on tangible on-court production in exchange for lottery tickets that might just bring them to greener pastures in the future. There was nothing typical about Nico Harrison’s infamous decision to trade away his franchise’s beloved homegrown superstar, with the return (or the lack thereof) being maybe the most puzzling aspect of the most heavily criticized trade in league history. Getting AD & 1 (one) first-round pick in return for Luka Doncic belied Nico’s delusional belief that he was still the GM of a contending roster, a deranged viewpoint that somehow became reality when the Mavs were blessed with the 1st overall pick in the 2025 draft.

Life isn’t fair, and clearly neither is basketball, because there isn’t a team in the world that was less deserving of Cooper Flagg. His selection was a live-saving transfusion to a fanbase that was on the brink of rioting if Nico wasn’t brought to justice, a steadying presence that can both contribute to DAL’s goal to win now while serving as their next foundational cornerstone for decades.

Pre-Draft Areas of Need:

🥇 23rd in Defensive Miles per 75 possessions (1.27), 25th in Deflections per game (14.4)

🥈 3P Generation: 29th in C&S 3PAr (25%), 25th in Clutch 3P% (29%)— Not Addressed: 6th in C&S 3P% (39.2%)

🥉 Glass Control: 25th in REB% +/, Last in RPG after Doncic trade

Coop’s arrival should inject some defensive playmaking and unlock jumbo lineups that will control the glass, but Kyrie being out takes away most of DAL’s pull-up 3P volume.

Season Outlook:

1. How viable is the Cooper Flagg PG experiment?

Flagg functionally operated as Duke’s lead playmaker and point guard in an ideal offensive context, posting a 99th% on-court offensive rating (127.4 ORTG). He is 1 of 3 drafted freshmen since 2008 to sustain a 30% usage% with an assist% above 25% AND an AST/TO above 1.5, joining Markelle Fultz and Trae Young.

His playmaking indicators among drafted NBA players are excellent, ranking in the 98th% in AST% (26.8%), 95th% in USG% (30.8) and 81st% in Creation Adjusted TOV% (81st%)1. His middle of the floor playmaking ability was underscored by Duke’s corner 3P% jumping 8.2% with him on the floor vs off.

However, this excellence came in one of the best offensive situations in college basketball, and playing him in lineups with no other ballhandlers in Dallas (the proposed Klay/P.J./AD/Lively) will likely overextend his abilities as an initiator. Coop played an extremely small sample size of ~ 120 poss without Kon AND Sion (Duke’s best secondary ballhandlers) and saw his on-court ORTG fall 18 points (109.1) and his eFG% drop from 54.6% to 43.9%. He doesn’t yet have the requisite pull-up/in-between consistency to be an offensive engine ( 33% on decent OTD 2P volume @ Duke), especially if the context is subpar.

The biggest benefit of Coop’s initiation ability is to field lineups without a traditional guard next to him — which reduces weak points on defense — but this Mavs team doesn’t quite have enough wings who can be trusted to handle the rock. Trial by fire could be great for his development, but ideally he sees 60-70% of his minutes with D’Angelo Russell/Brandon Williams.

2. Is there such thing as a lineup that’s “too big”?

I was surprised to see Dallas extend Daniel Gafford pre-draft, as I envisioned a clear logjam with AD/Lively. The P.J. extension months later surprised me even more, since DAL just has so many options to run at the 3 and the 4. Both moves indicate 3 intentions — to keep them tradeable, provide insurance for an AD injury and enable AD to play his preferred position when he is healthy.

Dallas’ guard room might be 8 deep, but they really only have 1.5 proven ballhandlers (D’lo/Williams). They absolutely need to be dominant on the glass if they’re going to trot out these massive lineups, as AD only playing 226 mins is one of the reasons they were somehow the worst rebounding team in the league after the Luka trade.

3. What are the downstream effects of AD’s refusal to play the 5?

AD played roughly 75% of his minutes at center as a Laker, transitioning to a full-time 5 in 2023. His on-court net ratings are relatively similar as a PF (+3.8 in ~2.7K mins) and a C (+2.9 in ~8K mins) BUT the biggest confounding variable to his viability as a 4 is his inconsistent shooting.

In the last 3 years, he’s averaged -11.9 rTS% on spacing plays2, which is livable if he’s a 5 and the worst shooter on the floor. At the 4 however, next to Gafford or Lively, the diminishing returns of stacking 2 non-shooters start to pile up, especially if Flagg is being tasked with operating that cramped spacing.

He’s only ever had 2 seasons where he shot above league average from 3, with the bubble sample of +6.6 3PT rTS% looking like one of the greatest outlier shooting performances in NBA history with each passing year. AD’s choice also unfortunately places a ton of developmental pressure on Lively to extend his range while also reducing his best traits as a screener and short roll playmaking. There isn’t any argument where AD at the 4 is what’s best for the team as a whole.

4. How will the Mavericks navigate their diverging timelines?

During Lebron’s first stint with the Cavs, CLE had 1 top 10 draft pick (and it was #10). Similarly, the Mavs never picked higher than 18 after drafting Luka.

This isn’t to say that Flagg should be compared to Luka/Bron but rather his projection as an immediately impactful rookie shares similarities with the dilemmas that those 2 guys’ teams ended up experiencing. A rookie dramatically raising a team’s floor makes it tougher to build naturally through the draft, complicating the natural (and necessary) process of acquiring young talent that’s on a similar timeline to the cornerstone.

Flagg landed in the strongest infrastructure a #1 pick has ever seen in NBA history, which likely solidifies Dallas as a top 6-8 ish team for the immediate future. That puts immense pressure on Nico to keep their contention window open, as the depth behind AD/Flagg/Kyrie was originally built to win it all.

The best path is to give this core a year or 2, then be proactive in trading away AD to try and retool with picks/younger players that are closer to Coop’s timeline. That’s the only way they’ll be able to make a material addition to the roster, as they only have 1 first round pick under their control (2026) until 2031 AND only got 1 first from the Lakers.

5. What’s this team’s defensive ceiling?

AD played so few minutes (just 7 games), that it really isn’t worth citing any of DAL’s defensive numbers with him on the floor. On paper however, the collective length of a Flagg/AD/Lively frontcourt is absolutely absurd.

Last season, DAL ranked 2nd in Opp rim FGA/g and 4th in Opponent rim %, I’m expecting that to remain consistent in 2026. The additional talents of P.J./Naji/Christie make this one of the best defensive rosters in the league, particularly in the paint. This team is missing a POA defender against on-ball guards though, especially in the projected starting lineup/lineups that feature Dlo and/or AD at the 4.

Flagg is an incredibly versatile defender, but his skillset doesn’t really entail chasing guys over screens as a POA guy. I see scenarios where DAL’s massive lineups struggle as a whole against heavy motion/screening actions as a result, especially with some of Davis’ motor concerns. They should be penciled in as a top 5 defense regardless, but they’re going to have to be incredibly well-connected to overcome the lack of a go-to perimeter defender.

Record Prediction

Total Wins Over/Under: 41.5 via BetMGM

Floor: 34–48 (-5 wins)

Nico Harrison might believe defense wins championships, but you’ve got to have at least a respectable offense to be anything more than a middling team in the modern NBA. There’s an outcome where this amalgamation of length and size really struggles offensively — asking far too much from Flagg in Kyrie’s absence — especially if AD continues to struggle as an outside shooter.

Ceiling: 44–38 (+5 wins)

I’d estimate there’s a 20% chance that Flagg’s collegiate playmaking translates relatively seamlessly, AD remains healthy for 50+ games and Kyrie returns with 2ish months left in the season, which is enough variability for me to estimate their ceiling as a Play-In team that should win ~40 games.

Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Mavericks this season?

Overall Grade: B

Up Next: Milwaukee Bucks