2025 Portland State Basketball Strategy Blueprint

How The Vikings Will become the next basketball powerhouse of the Pacific Northwest

2025 Portland State Basketball Strategy Blueprint

How The Vikings Will become the next basketball powerhouse of the Pacific Northwest

Upon entering the Big Sky Conference in 1997, after nearly twenty years without a team, Portland State’s basketball program has sustained perpetual mediocrity. In 29 seasons, the Vikings have won two tournament championships and secured automatic NCAA Tournament berths. Of the eight teams that have been part of the conference since Portland State’s arrival, all but lowly Idaho State and Sacramento State have won two or more.

Only two conference POYs, Seamus Boxley in 2005 and Jeremiah Dominguez in 2008, one NBA player, Ime Udoka, and one NFL Pro Bowler, Julius Thomas, have graced the hardwood in Viking Pavilion.

A glance at PSU’s brief coaching history shows only one positively memorable playcaller. Ken Bone outperformed all other Viking coaches, the Big Sky, and most of the NCAA during his time in Portland. Both aforementioned NCAA tourney berths came under his reign, as well as a distinguished offensive system that utilized heavy three-point volume and offensive rebounding as a catalyst to success.

We’re lucky enough to have better data regarding just how Viking basketball succeeded, as 2008 is the first season of BartTorvik data.

Losing a coach whose teams generated elite 2PT%, 3PT%, and 3PAr over an extended sample, while still rebounding at an above-average rate, was predictably challenging. Head assistant Tyler Geving received an eight-season trial to relive Bone’s success and responded by posting the 330th-ranked defense in America across the sample, below such powerhouses as Sacred Heart, Florida A&M, and Houston Christian.

Looking externally to fill the vacancy, Barret Peery was a more than adequate selection, having spent his career flowing between junior college and high-major head and assistant roles in the region on mostly successful teams. Forcing turnovers and heavy emphasis on offensive rebounding was his language, and outside of a disastrous 2021 campaign with a 44.4 EFG% ranking 335/347 in the nation, his teams performed as unceremoniously as those under any other Viking coach.

Peery’s replacement came from his staff, with the 37-year-old Jase Coburn taking on the job for the 2021 season, after winning multiple championships at the high school and junior college levels. With painstaking analysis behind me, I can confirm that there is a platform for Coburn’s iteration of Portland State basketball to return to the standard Bone presented and surpass it.

Defined team identity

Coach Coburn ranks 16th in Defensive TO% and 15th in pace among 240 coaches w/100+ games coached since his inaugural 2021–22 season as Viking head coach.

Coaches like Will Wade, Bruce Pearl, and most similarly former Mizzou/Arkansas/St. John’s coach Mike Anderson have proven that this is a way to sustainably win during their careers.

Above are the relationships between Adjusted Tempo (possessions per 40 minutes), Forced Turnover percentage, and Offensive Turnover percentage. Playing faster does not inherently lead to more wins, but it’s a stylistic trait introduced by staff and players that can maximize their abilities. Turning opponents over and keeping the ball secure leads to wins though, and this is the current Portland State language.

McNeese State and Grand Canyon University have been two of the most relevant low/mid-major contenders in the nation over the last two seasons, and I think it is apparent that with improved roster construction, Portland State will join their ranks. Winning with offensive rebounding, forcing turnovers, and not fouling as pillars of success is once again a pattern of success, simply waiting on other team skill improvements to develop.

This is the basis of my belief in Viking basketball in the near future.

Defined team deficiencies

Viking basketball has genuinely been working on the low-end of shot-making talent, almost to a historical degree, and FT% is an awesome indicator of that, with it being an unguarded shot that carries strong correlations with shooting ability and touch.

Being in the bottom 3rd percentile in the country in free throw shooting across a two-season sample should have led to negative team performance overall (see the below chart showing a very positive correlation between Team FT% and Win%), but other tactical decisions by the PSU coaching staff led to an above-.500 record.

It may seem like I would prefer Portland State to play ‘MathBall’, akin to Nate Oats at Alabama, based on the heavy statistical emphasis. Instead, I wish to maximize the principles that the current regime works under. I mostly want to do this by ensuring that the roster makeup is ideal, but an understanding that there’s room to improve tactical decisions comes with my process. For now, I present only one tactical observation.

Play More Zone Defense!!

Even if it’s just for the D1 average of approximately 4.5% of half-court defensive possessions, as opposed to the 2.5% of possessions Portland State has shown proficiency in coverages designated as ‘zone’ in Synergy. Very Good and Average Defensive Points Per Possession rankings for standard man defensive possessions are nothing to scoff at. Still, there’s a possibility that doubling the rate of zone looks could make a tangible difference in team success throughout the season.

PSU Recruiting/Roster Review

Recruiting Landscape

Portland is a more than solid recruiting hub. I’d argue it’s one of the three best locations regarding talent pools in the Big Sky Conference, behind Northern Arizona and Sacramento St, 2 of the 3 worst teams, by win%. Currently, 36 D1 players are from Phoenix/Tucson, 6 from Sacramento (but 37 from the combined Sacramento/San Fran/Richmond/Stockton-Central California region), 11 from Portland, 25 from Utah, 17 from Denver, 5 from Montana, and 4 from Boise.

2025 Roster Analysis

Handlers

Kelcy Phipps

• If I believed in Phipps making any development as a scorer or shot-maker, I’d be interested in him as a piece long-term. Potentially an elite defensive playmaker and his 1.9 AST:TO. ratio says there’s potential to be a positive offensive playmaker as well.

These shooting splits from Phipps are basically in ‘No Man’s Land’, especially with his career (PSU + Compton Magic) free throw% being under 50%. With no other option, Phipps could suffice as a rotational guard.

Tait Spencer

• lacking both in vertical athleticism (no dunks, limited blocks in Synergy profile)
• does not appear to have the playmaking skills to run a good NCAA offense (.46 AST:TO ratio)
• excellent rim finisher
• streaky jump-shooter

Wings

Jaylin Henderson

Henderson’s value as the only floor-spacer of note for the Vikings last season was defined, even without being an elite shooter.

Alex Dupre, Sebastian Tidor, Brayden Barron

Not Enough Data to analyze

‘Bigs’

Terri Miller Jr.

Miller was the best player in the conference from January 24th onwards, by Box Plus-Minus, just ahead of conference Player of the Year Dylan Darling. Over that period, Miller was one of the most impactful two-way bigs in the nation.

90th percentile post-up frequency last season, with a .992 PPP (73rd percentile) to show for it.

2025 PSU offense was substantially better with him on the floor, due to a 3% jump in 2PT% and overall increases in scoring efficiency. Miller should be in contention for Big Sky Player of the Year in the 2026 season if his foul issues improve and he plays more than 55% of team minutes.

Issac Brice

-Not Enough Data to analyze

Jules Assim

19 GP w/ Compton Magic, 56 charted offensive possessions

23.2 TO% was the worst on the team/0.23 AST:TO is pretty frightening. 53% at the rim/.15 FTr with one made jumpshot? 1.24 points per possession given up as a post-up defender ranked in the bottom first percentile of the 2024 Adidas u17 3SSB circuit. I would not have estimated this player to be of D1 caliber based solely on the 2024 3SSB sessions. I would like to see what other data led to his recruitment.

The frequent “Not Enough Data” tag on these players leaves me weary and disappointed for team-building purposes in 2025. Offering a player without a Synergy profile or any relevant statistical profile online cannot be a consistent route to success. Working to recruit players with more data points within their profiles will ensure improvements in recruiting class quality. These are all topics analyzed in the second half of the analysis, titled..

2025 Portland State Roster Building Blueprint

I have presented proof that the current playstyle/coaching traits are cohesive to winning games. The next step is a heightened focus on player acquisition and lineup optimization.

Player Acquisition Improvements:

Takeaways from this research paper on the transfer portal:

• Most transfers go from low/mid-major to low/mid-major
• Mid/low-major teams win more games on average with a higher percentage of transfer minutes on their team than the season before.
• Players who stay at the same school season-to-season usually increase their minutes more than transfers. This bodes well for a player like Kelcy Phipps.
• Players transferring ‘down’ FROM a p6 conference TO a mid/low major have shown increases in playing time and production. This worked massively in favor of Tre-Vaughn Minott/Isaiah Johnson, but much less favorably in favor of Mikal Starks/Shane Nowell.

The above charts display the relationship between a team’s ‘Effective Height’ and single-season win percentage, as well as the team’s minute-weighted average height and its win percentage.

Effective height can be understood in full via this archived article by the immortal Ken Pomeroy. A team’s statistical footprint has a substantial correlation with the height of its two tallest frontcourt players. A team’s raw average height has a much smaller correlation with win percentage, indicating that sacrificing size for skill on the perimeter and wings may not inherently lead to winning.

As seen above, PSU’s consistent placement below the effective height trendline, while being relatively successful over the last three seasons indicates further room for roster growth insisted upon throughout the piece.

Do I think Hayden Curtiss, the tallest player of the Coburn era so far, should have played much more and that his 2024 rim protection was the best single tool a player has brought to the table at PSU outside of Cameron Parker’s foul-drawing and passing? Yes.

Moving forward, when the Vikings are graced with players 6'10 and above with skill, will they receive playing time in the spirit of promoting effective height? Maybe. I couldn’t say for sure. I hope so.

In 2025, two of the top-performing four duos, minimum 200 possessions, by Net Rating placed 6'8 Miller and another big (either 6'9 Minott or Curtiss) on the floor together, as proof of effective height’s application.

Win the Region!

The best prep players in the region are currently more likely to attend Washington, Gonzaga, or even Washington State, assuming they even stay in-state. The next-best batch of players would (from my outside perspective) be up for grabs under ideal circumstances. A lot of the information regarding prep basketball in Oregon/Washington is behind paywalls, so I can’t confirm with certainty but I am sure that with data, there is a solid pool of underrecruited prospects. The aforementioned ‘local’ pool should be finely combed over with both a statistical and ‘eye test’ focus. Letting good players get out of the region is wasteful and can be stopped, in my opinion, though NIL and other factors must be accounted for. Taking advantage of the massive California player base goes without saying, and I like a handful of the state’s recruits/transfers in the Coburn era. I would love to hold a dialogue on this topic for an ‘insider’ understanding.

More importantly, EXTEND THE NET!!!

Via my best observation, there hasn’t been an international recruit to PSU, sans Canadians, in the 2010s. Zero contribution from international players in the current CBB environment is a rarity, with ≈10% of the D1 CBB player base having their hometown listed outside of the mainland US.

Adding skilled international players, whether they be from mainland Europe, Australia/NZ, Asia, or Africa, would dually unlock different skill sets into the Viking player pool and open up recruiting pipelines around the world.

Every talent deficiency can be improved by obtaining recruits and transfers that are either Hands or Gloves.

Hands are the extension of the ‘body’, or the previously defined team style patterns, such as turnover-causing or OREB emphasis. Players who have shown proficiency in forcing turnovers, not turning the ball over, having success as rim drivers/finishers, and/or playing at a fast tempo would be targeted as Hand recruits for Portland State. An added benefit would be recruiting players who share efficiency in similar play-type distributions as previous Vikings.

Gloves may exhibit weaknesses in the system-based pillars (turnover economy/pace/getting to the rim/finishing) but will aid in adding shot-making skill or isolation defense. Bringing Gloves into a system where their ‘weaknesses’ will be surrounded by Hands allows increased lineup versatility and optionality when building rotations.

Finally, I have curated a small batch of transfer portal prospects that would benefit Portland State roster-building tactics. In each instance, a prospect listed follows some number of principles referred to in both parts of this analysis.

The formats of the sheet differ, as I was looking to receive feedback on the prospects before running with a steady template.

But this was published publicly for a reason. All is well. Thank you for reading, I appreciate it more than you know.

Link to 2025 PSU Transfer Watchlist, by Nile!

The majority of the analysis was completed in late March 2025, and thus the rare detail may be outdated. The concepts mentioned surely make up for a lack of time-sensitive information.

Nile! Go Viks.