30 teams, 30 days: Boston Celtics | 2027 Season Preview

Welcome to the 4th edition of my annual 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions. For the first time, these articles will be exclusively posted on the Hardwood Collective AND paired with video deep-dives over on my Youtube!

Notable Additions: Paul George, Mitchell Robinson, Chris Cenac Jr., Mike Conley, Neemias Queta (re-signed), Ron Harper Jr. (re-signed), Jordan Walsh, Dillon Mitchell, Amari Williams (re-signed)

Notable Subtractions: Jaylen Brown, Nikola Vučević, Anfernee Simons

Depth Chart + Roster Hierarchy

Franchise — Jayson Tatum

Core — Derrick White, Payton Pritchard

Key Rotation — Paul George, Mitchell Robinson, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta, Baylor Scheierman

Rotation — Ron Harper Jr., Luka Garza, Mike Conley, Jordan Walsh, Hugo González

Development — Chris Cenac Jr., Amari Williams, Dillon Mitchell

Cap Sheet:

Offseason Overview

Boston began this offseason with a full season worth of data points on how their team fared with Jaylen Brown as the lone star. Brown responded to this surge in usage admirably, in terms of his own individual production, posting career-highs across the board on the highest PNR volume & On-Ball% of his career. While his relative efficiency suffered, JB was also able to achieve personal bests in FTR, passing volume and passing turnovers, which culminated in this past season ranking as his best ever from an offensive impact perspective. Jaylen was a huge part of the Celtics overachievement relative to expectations, but a concerning trend continued to persist even in the most dominant season of his career: the Celtics were, yet again, playing better basketball without him on the floor, in large part due to how he monopolized their offense in his minutes.

Stars tend to suppress their teammates' PPG, but they pair that scoring usage with hyper-efficiency (such as Giannis or prime Joel), influence high quality shots (Wemby), and/or suppress TOs (Luka). In contrast, a jump in Jaylen Brown's scoring output leads to diminishing returns for BOS. Simply put, Brown is neither efficient enough or a strong enough playmaker to justify his scoring usage. That tradeoff is further magnified considering how talented Boston's supporting cast is, plus JB having his least active defensive season of his career.

After weeks of canvassing the league for suitors, Brad Stevens and the Celtics' front office elected to trade former Finals MVP Jaylen Brown to their closest rivals, a mere 310 miles away. They took back Paul George and his 33% of the cap player option next season, but were able to shed the long term commitment to Brown & add a player who quite seamlessly fits the scheme. Stevens' comments shortly after lays out his decision making clearly: 70% of the cap in 2 guys was untenable from his perspective, especially since they both account for so much offensive usage. Brad is rolling the dice on scheme fit trumping talent, leaning on the cheap contracts they've stacked to continue to remain competitive and ultimately making a bet on Jayson Tatum returning to All-NBA form.

Pre-Draft Areas of Need:

🥇 FT Generation:

29th in FT Rate, 3rd lowest Drive FTR (25.2%)

Not Addressed: Tatum’s return should help, but barring dev from Pritchard, the C’s will again be one of the lowest FTA volume teams itl

🥈 Connective Playmaking:

22nd in Hockey Assists per Game (4.1), 25th in Quick Decision Making %

Addressed: JT will catch & hold, but everyone else should be quick decision makers. BOS aggregate passing talent is better than last year

🥉 Rim FGA Creation:

30th in Rim Rate (23.3%, lowest in Stevens/The Jays Era)

Partially Addressed: Oboards + Tatum rim assist boost

Season Outlook:

1) Who starts at center?

The biggest point of intrigue for me in Boston this season is who's going to start at center. Mazzulla's role player factor completely rehabilitated Queta's standing in the NBA, with him putting together one of the biggest breakout seasons in the league last year. They also got solid minutes from Luka Garza all year & their biggest non-Jaylen Brown splash this offseason was the Mitchell Robinson signing. His arrival gives Joe 3 distinct bigs to toggle through, with all three offering skillsets that I could envision him finding value in. Neemias was the de-facto starter last year, playing the biggest share of center minutes and starting in 75 of his 76 appearances. He was the 2nd most efficient volume roller last year, blending his above the rim verticality with some surprisingly deft touch in the short midrange, shooting 50.7% on short middies, which accounted for 30% of his shot diet. Of the 3, Queta is certainly the strongest offensive player, offering Boston some versatility in the halfcourt out of handoff actions.

Garza adds a different element with his respectable 3PA volume & efficiency. The Celtics are often mistakenly categorized as an explicitly 5-out spacing team, but they also regularly stick players in the dunkers' spot, which is a key element to their drive & kick game. I'm anticipating the interior presence of Queta & Mitch will outweigh what Garza can do for their spacing, but he's a necessary toggle that they can enable against specific matchups.

While all 3 options are strong rebounders, very few in NBA history can match Mitchell Robinson's dominance on the offensive glass. The GOAT offensive rebounder going to perhaps the best infrastructure of all time for a player with his skill singularity plus offensive deficiencies is an addition that simply can't be glossed over, as his presence provides a unique advantage Boston must maximize. The FT shooting and conditioning issues are the biggest barriers to ramping up his minutes, since if he's shooting < 50% from the free throw line, BOS would be scoring less than 1 PPP every time he goes to the line. The Celtics will be able to constantly generate possessions in the half court that are well worth above 1 PPP, so I can't imagine Mazzulla would hesitate to drop his minutes if he can't convert at the line.

If they don’t end up starting Mitch, perhaps Joe could play him at the end of the first and beginning of the second quarter, with a similar pattern in the 2nd half. However, maybe having Mitch on the floor to start games could help the Celtics rack up some fouls early plus his ability to generate extra possessions helped provide some of the most efficient shots in the Knicks offense. Observing Mazulla balance his trust in Queta and the maximization of their offense will be fascinating to monitor.

2) Is there enough offensive infrastructure to unlock Tatum’s All-Defensive qualities for stretches?

One of the more under-discussed components of Tatum's game is his defensive versatility, an aspect that's been enabled on previous Celtics teams by him not carrying a massive offensive load. It's not that Tatum can't sustain great offensive production at that usage, it's that he's so good defensively that you don't want him to be on-ball that much because of the diminishing returns on defense. In their title winning season, Tatum paced the Celtics by nearly double in overall Creation TSA, but he was also flanked by 2 players who were in the 90th%ile in creation volume at their position. Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis' creation ability became more valuable the more Jayson Tatum was asked to do on defense, particularly in the Finals where he served as the primary defender on Dereck Lively. He was constantly switching on to Luka & Kyrie, breaking up lobs and battling DAL's bigs on the glass. JB's share of iso's increasing by 4%, plus KP's postups jumping by 3% and his Iso's by 10% in limited minutes is what allowed Tatum to wreak havoc on defense.

This year's team is taking a much more egalitarian approach to creating offense outside of Tatum, an approach to roster construction that I'm personally a fan of, but it may come with the tradeoff of not giving Tatum the ability to be a defensive player first. Payton Pritchard's minutes without Jaylen Brown last year continue to inspire belief in his ability to scale up offensively, matching a near 10 PTS/75 jump with even better efficiency. He hasn't quite mastered the foul-drawing portion of offense yet, which tempers my expectations of him ascending to superstar status, but the foundation of a strong offensive player deserving of more usage has been here for years.

No one brought the ball up more for the C's last year than Derrick White, but the PPP gap between Payton Pritchard and Derrick White is meaningful in a way that I think it's definitely something that they should explore. While this team doesn't quite have the entrenched offensive players to direct a ton of isolation volume too, I think they can approximate at least some of it with Pritchard's on-ball scoring, Derrick White's on-ball growth as a distributor last year and the occasional Erykah Badu moments from Paul George. Additionally, their beefy wing defensive rotation might mean that they won't even need to ask Tatum to expend a ton of energy on defense.

3) Will this team break (their own record) for 3-point attempt rate? (essentially, is PG + Mitch for JB a net positive, neutral or negative on the team’s ability to get up 3s?)

As I mentioned in the Mitchell Robinson discussion & the offseason overview, the Celtics are wholeheartedly betting on their system & the downstream impacts of placing the GOAT offensive rebounder inside the infrastructure of an extremely lethal 3P shooting team. This is an entirely distinct take on the principles they built the 2024 team around, regularly playing lineups with five shooters, enabled by the unique skillsets of Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis. These units were a huge part in how they pulled defenses away from the rim, creating some of the widest driving lanes of any halfcourt offense ever.

How could a unit with 2 non-shooters playing a large minutes load possibly compete? Well, Jaylen Brown has never had a 3-point attempt rate above the 33rd%ile at his position (including his lowest of his career this past season), peaking at 7.8 3P/75 in 2022. PG13 has 9 seasons attempting more 3s per 75 than that high water mark for JB and posted the highest 3PR of his career (.50) last season for Philly. In his last healthy season in 2024, Paul George attempted more contested catch & shoot 3PA then Jaylen Brown's TOTAL catch & shoot 3PA volume this past year! The 2nd most likely shot after an offensive rebound, especially if it's a missed 3, is a three-point attempt, so even with Mitch and/or Queta on the floor, those lineups could sustain a monster 3-point attempt rate. Boston projects to have as many as 7 to 9 players attempting at least 7 3PA per 75 possessions, a collection of shooting talent that maybe only CHA and GSW could rival.

It's hard to separate this style of offense from the the collapses in the playoffs, especially the moments where their 3P hunting felt like an over reliance. However, if a team is instructed to abandon the process that they've played for years, then they ultimately are abandoning belief in themselves, the team and the coach. That's not to say that this offense shouldn't have other means of generating advantages and shot attempts, but not shooting 3s just because they're not going in isn't a viable strategy. If that's the way they play, then that's the way they play, you can't switch it up drastically because variance isn't going your way.

4) How will Mazzulla divide up the rim pressure responsibility in Jaylen Brown’s absence?

One of the byproducts of the Celtics taking so many threes is that in four of the last five years, they've ranked top-five in rim FG%. This year, they're not going to have any big stretching the floor besides Garza, which will be at a lower volume than someone like Horford or Porziņģis. They don't have Jaylen Brown, which means they don't have a singular player who is dialed in on forcing his way to the rim.

Jaylen Brown had a massive 43% free throw rate on his drives, offering the Celtics the luxury of being able to clear the floor for him to make something happen out of nothing. Despite the offense being led by Brown however, this Celtics team had, by far, the lowest Rim Rate (23.3%) in the Jays/the Brad Stevens era. JB assuming so much of the touches spiked the team's midrange frequency, while his differing playmaking style — characterized by fewer interior, driving & skip passes than Tatum — further reduced rim FGA for his teammates. As with the 3P volume, the offensive rebounding could assist the rim FGA volume in a non-traditional way, but this offense will still need someone to lead the charge.

Rim pressure isn't just about generating rim attempts of course, the Celtics' also need to get downhill in order to get to the FT line more often. High FT rate teams are better positioned to establish a scoring floor, which is paramount for a team like the Celtics that embraces shot variance to a massive extent. Tatum will need to get back to his 2023 drive FTR (.48), though he did looks a bit less explosive than years past. Nonetheless, it was encouraging to see him drive left on 63% of his overall drives, typically launching off of the repaired achilles.

If Payton assumes the on-ball role most are suggesting, he'll need to demonstrate more of an ability to touch paint in the highest leverage moments. Last year, only 5 of his 27 clutch FGA were rim attempts, which could be moreso a function of when in the shot clock Jaylen Brown decided to swing the rock.

5) Will Joe deploy a “platoon/stint” approach to his complimentary wing room besides Tatum, or will PG13 dominate the minutes share?

Joe Mazzulla was constantly cycling through his wing rotation last year, starting Hugo, Walsh, Schierman, Minott or Ron Harper Jr. on any given night. Hauser was tabbed as the most frequent pairing with the starters, starting 50 games last year. PG13 and Tatum might load manage a bit throughout the year and it wouldn't be too farfetched to not see either of them play in back to backs, which could allow Joe to tinker away at identifying who will present themselves as the de facto option out of the young collection of wings.

The most immediate need among the starting group is a point of attack defender. Derrick White & Tatum can function in that fashion, but both are excellent off-ball roamers & Tatum's defensive involvement must be meticulously managed. This need highlights an opportunity for Jordan Walsh or Hugo Gonzalez, the Celtics' most tenacious wing defenders. Walsh was more commonly deployed vs opposing star guards, while Hugo was typically tasked with checking the larger wings and/or forwards. Of the 2, Hugo's frame & disruption makes him the most versatile, but Walsh is generally more suited to chasing defenders over screens. Both guys are extremely limited offensive players, providing marginal value on the glass and off of cuts, which may reduce them to hyper-specific use cases vs teams with multiple star perimeter creators.

Ron Harper Jr. and Baylor Schierman are the more well-rounded players, though neither are quite as well-suited to the low-friction POA defensive hound role Walsh & Hugo relish. Baylor played the most minutes of all 4 last year, which makes me wonder if that built up equity in addition to his offensive skills will wind him with him being tabbed as either the 5th starter (if Pritchard comes off the bench) or the 1st sub off the bench. I never would have projected him to be this solid of a positional defender based on what he looked like in college, though he does really struggle with screens. He constantly got hung up on picks, which caused him to be constantly trailing. It's not always the worst thing to be trailing as long as a defender is smart about leveraging that position, funneling guys into bigs. and peeling off to go box out when a shot goes up. It also helps that Baylor is a wonderful defensive rebounder (89th% in DREB%) with a real tenacity on the glass.

Offensively, some of the stuff he put on display off the dribble, whether it was driving closeouts or the depth of range that he has, clearly pegs him as the best offensive option. I do worry about him playing next to the starters due to the screen navigation issues, but the rebounding & size might make asking Derrick White to chase on-ball worth it. Whoever Joe chooses, it's vital that Boston is able to identify clear groups they start and preferably, close games with, to establish the necessary continuity. Their depth advantage disappeared in the playoffs and their most played regular season lineup paled in comparison, in terms of minutes share, to every other team above a +5 net rating besides OKC.

Record Prediction

Combined Odds: 50.8 via multiple sportbooks

My Model Projection: 47.6 (6th out of 30), +2.84 Net Rating

Floor: 48-34 (-8 wins)

Their excellent depth sets one of the highest floors in the league, but if this team ends up losing more games than last year, it’ll be due to the East as a whole taking a step forward & their most impactful players not being on the floor as much as they were last season. The Celtics had 7 guys play 70 games last year, which included all 5 of their team leaders in EPM.

Ceiling: 56-26 (+0 wins)

The parity in the East will pull teams toward the middle, which leads me to believe there won’t be a 60+ win team east of the Mississippi River. The machine that is Celtics basketball should be more optimized than ever with some favorable health luck.

Overall Grade: B+

Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Celtics this season?

Up Next: Brooklyn Nets