30 teams, 30 days: Boston Celtics | 2026 Season Preview

Welcome to my 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions.

Notable Additions: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Ty Jerome, Cedric Coward, Jock Landle, Javon Small, Jahmai Mashack

Notable Subtractions: Santi Aldama, Jaren Jackson Jr., Cam Spencer

Depth Chart:

PG: Payton Pritchard / Max Shulga

SG: Derrick White / Anfernee Simons / Baylor Schierman

SF: Sam Hauser / Jordan Walsh / Jayson Tatum / Hugo González / Reggie Luis Jr.

PF: Jaylen Brown / Chris Boucher / Xavier Tillman / Josh Minott

C: Neemias Queta/ Luka Garza / Amari Williams

Roster Hierarchy:

Franchise: Jayson Tatum

Core: Jaylen Brown, Derrick White

Key Rotation: Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta, Anfernee Simons, Chris Boucher, Luka Garza

Rotation: Baylor Schierman, Xavier Tillman, Jordan Walsh, Josh Minott

Development: Hugo González, Max Shulga, Amari Williams, Reggie Luis Jr.

Offseason Overview:

There were moments last season where I legitimately feared that the Boston Celtics had completely and utterly mastered basketball. A few months into the season, the 2025 Celtics were attempting the most 3s per game by a large margin (50.9), while suppressing opponents 3-point attempts at the 3rd highest rate in the league. The C’s were outscoring teams, on average, by nearly TWENTY-ONE points per game from the 3P line!

That advantage regressed a bit throughout the season, falling to a still ridiculous 14.7 difference, with the Celtics riding that unique ability to win the three-point battle at a historic rate to another 60-win season. The Tatum injury threw a wrench in the masterpiece of roster construction Brad Stevens had meticulously crafted, yet the best executive in the NBA wasted no time tearing it all down.

The 2026 Celtics are returning just 9 of their 17 players from last year, are down 3 starters and will be missing 99.5% of their playoff center minutes. Stevens has positioned his Celtics to take a gap year, with the flexibility to gut the roster even further to duck tax penalties or add to the roster if they prove to be more competitive than projected.

Pre-Draft Areas of Need:

🥇 POA Defense: 25th in PNR BH Defense (0.93), 25th in Handoff Defense (0.98), 19th in Off-Ball Screen Defense (1.00)

🥈 Shot Quality: 1st in 3PAr (53.8%) and Rim or 3 Frequency (75.87%), 20th in Overall Shot Quality (0.54) and 28th in 3PT Shot Quality (-0.40)

🥉 Drive Conversion: 1st in Drive FG% (55.6%), 3rd in Rim & Post FG% (58.7%), 30th in Drive FGA/G (16.0), 30th in Rim & Post FGA/G (34.4)

Jrue’s screen navigation fell off a bit with the additional mileage, but BOS should be more active on both ends with an infusion of younger legs.

Season Outlook:

1. Can Mazzulla build a more diverse offense without Tatum?

Boston doubled down on #MazzullaBall in 2025, pushing their three-point rate to a league-record 53.6% of their total field-goal attempts. That shot diet necessitates attempting low shot quality 3s —53.7% of their threes were contested—but the Celtics had the shooting infrastructure to live with that tradeoff, finishing first and third in points added on contested and tightly contested threes, respectively. The spacing benefits of that immense 3P volume in a five-out alignment were enormous: by drawing rim protectors away from the rim at the highest rate in the league, Boston converted over 70% at the rim both in the regular season (70.7%, 3rd) and the playoffs (74.2%, 1st).

The weak spot of this approach, however, was highlighted in the playoffs: BOS struggled to manufacture corner threes (7.5% corner rate, last among playoff teams and 2.5 percentage points below average) and reached the rim at the lowest rate of any team that played a full series (26.8%). Without Tatum and with fewer stretch-big options, Mazzulla will have to get creative, possibly featuring more sets with 4-out 1-in alignments & big men facilitating, instead of the freelance drive and kick they’ve leaned on heavily in past seasons. Even if the offense feels clunkier until Tatum returns, the added versatility in alignments and shot creation will pay dividends in future playoff runs.

2. Has Brad finally found his wing developmental project?

Brad Stevens has repeatedly bet on defensive-minded wings over the years, acquiring players such as Romeo Langford, Aaron Nesmith, Jaden Springer and Jordan Walsh, without identifying a long-term rotation piece. Hugo González and Josh Minott are evidence of Stevens’ continued search for wing contributors, but there are key distinguishing traits that may bode for their NBA translation

Hugo has encouraging passing flashes both on tape and the statsheet, posting a 1.5 assist-to-turnover ratio and a 17% assist rate as a 17-year-old, a rare indicator for a defense-first prospect. Minott is unquestionably a NBA-level athlete, with 25 pre-NBA dunks and, in a tiny NBA sample, a 20% dunk rate paired with a promising 90.2% from the line.

Both guys are strong defensive event creators as well, Minott recorded a 8.5 Stock% (Steal% + Block%) in the NCAA and 7% in the NBA. Hugo racked up a 6.2 Stock% across two seasons, further suggesting the requisite feel modern wings need in today’s NBA. Stevens’ previous bets didn’t quite have this combination of projectable feel and a potential standout trait, as Romeo and Springer met the baseline athleticism requirements but weren’t defensive playmakers, Nesmith needed time to develop connective passing skills (evidenced by his 9.4 AST% and 0.9 AST/TO ratio) and Walsh had an extremely murky offensive projection, with the 3rd lowest USG% of any drafted non-big since 2008, without the playmaking (6.7 AST%), shooting (27.8 3P%) or outlier defensive playmaking (4.6 Stock%) to make that weakness up.

If one of Hugo or Minott pairs their defense with reliable spot-ups, cutting and finishing, the Celtics may finally have the two-way developmental hit they’ve been chasing.

3. Which big could take steps to join the Celtics long-term plans?

Neemias Queta’s the longest-tenured among the group ,he’s finished at the rim well (+5.4 relative true shooting on finishing plays), and has protected the rim effectively in limited minutes (opponents −7.7% at the rim when he contests). Luka Garza, is more offensively inclined, a high-effort glass cleaner with a career 15.9% offensive rebound rate (90th percentile) and comfortability with the ball in his hands in low minutes, but has more questions as a backline anchor (opponents shoot 3.3% BETTER when he contests) .

Chris Boucher’s minutes have declined over the years, despite lineups consistently faring better with him on the floor (+3.8 career on/off net swing). The 1-year contract indicates BOS may not be invested long term, but they would be smart to retain Boucher if he continues his 3P% jump from last year. Xavier Tillman is one of the more active defensive playmaking centers, averaging 4 deflections/100 for his career, but his inefficiency as a finisher (career -5 rTS% on finishing plays) likely derails his chance to stick in BOS.

2nd round draft pick Amar Williams is the most intriguing potential contributor, a true seven-footer with an outrageous +6” wingspan who can facilitate and put the ball on the floor, which distinguishes him from the rest of the group. If his physical advantages translate to the NBA and he refines his touch and footwork, his blend of length, handling, and DHO hub potential makes him the most promising long-term frontcourt piece.

4. Is this the year Payton Pritchard is finally unleashed?

Pritchard has put together 2 straight seasons of tantalizing closing stretches with increased on-ball usage. Over his final 20 games in 2024, he averaged 14.8 points and 5.8 assists on +2.4 relative TS%, with a 5.8 assist-to-turnover ratio with a +4% usage bump, from 15.9% to 20.0% (per @NileHoops). He replicated that production with even stronger efficiency in the last 20 games of 2025 (15.3/3.6 on +4.4 rTS%, 3.16 A/T, usage from 18.5% to 20.3%).

His minutes without Tatum the past two years further support this case, exhibiting impressive production AND efficiency increases: +6.2 points per 75 (from 15.0 to 21.2), +1.4 assists per 75 (4.5 to 5.9), and +3.8 TS% (59.7% to 63.5%). He’s unlikely to be a primary due to his relative lack of FT generation and playmaking volume, but Boston has a prime window to test the limits of his offensive value as a secondary handler and pick-and-roll guard, especially if they move Anfernee Simons in a timely fashion.

5. How will the 2026 Celtics try and overcome their night to night talent deficit?

Mazzulla is a staunch believer in the all-powerful entity that is shot variance, and without their lead creator, the Celtics may lean even harder into launching 3s. The personnel acquisitions certainly point that way, Garza attempts 5.8 threes per 75 (77th percentile), Simons 9.6 (90th%), Boucher 8.3 (93rd%) and Minott 5.5 (43rd%).

Boston’s defensive philosophy will need to shift as well, as they played a conservative style that relied on Jrue & DWhite containing the ball, Tatum & Brown’s switchability and Horford/Kornet/KP deterring shots @ the rim. BOS ranked bottom-five in opponent turnover rate the past two seasons, but with their core gutted, Joe will need to ask his guys to pickup full court, help aggressively from 1 pass away and gamble on the ball, in an effort to juice possessions and create runouts. This should help speed up their tempo, as Boston ranked 30th in transition frequency, mainly because they weren’t forcing TOs and their halfcourt offense was so potent that they didn’t HAVE to push the pace to generate good offense. It’s virtually a guarantee that this year’s team will push the pace off of steals and rebounds much more frequently to try and compensate for a less effective halfcourt offense.

Record Prediction

Total Wins Over/Under: 40.5 via BetMGM

Floor: 32–50 (-29 wins)

The incentives of resetting the repeater tax penalties, getting under the 1st apron and possibly securing a lottery pick may prove to be too enticing for the Celtics to resist. This team certainly has enough talent to secure a play-in berth, but the most rewarding outcome can be easily achieved by letting nature take its course, organically tanking their record.

Ceiling: 46–36 (-15 wins)

I’m entirely convinced the concept of tanking is absent from Mazzulla’s lexicon, and he’s likely preparing for this season with the same goal he’s had since inheriting the head coach title. If they get any semblance of stable production from their committee of big men, a Payton/White/Brown core is strong enough to push for a top 6 seed.

Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Celtics this season?

Overall Grade: B+

Up Next: Miami Heat