Welcome to my 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions.
Notable Additions: Egor Demin, Nolan Traore, Drake Powell, Ben Saraf, Danny Wolf, Haywood Highsmith, Michael Porter Jr., Kobe Bufkin, Terance Mann
Brooklyn pulled off one of the most ethical tanks of all time this season, somehow remaining competitive throughout the course of the year despite fielding severely limited lineups. Jordi Fernandez worked his magic all season, planting the foundational seeds of a solid team with his system and principles, evidenced by the Nets keeping games at a 50/50 win probability at the 6th highest rate of the league.
That hard work plus some shrewd trade machinations blessed Brooklyn with 5 first round picks in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Pre-Draft Areas of Need:
🥇 Creation: 30th in Pull-Up 3PT% (.30), 29th in Self-Created ShotMaking
🥈 Paint Dominance: 30th in PNR Roll Man PPP (0.93), 30th in Rim Deterrence (-0.65)
🥉 Transition Conversion: 27th in Transition Shot Making, 30th in Transition FG% (52%)
If you squint, you can see the formation of a rangy & versatile core that needs a creator to make them viable offensively.
Season Outlook:
1. What takeaways can we glean from the Nets’ historically large draft class?
In economics, the law of diminishing returns states that if you keep increasing one factor in the production of goods while keeping all other factors the same, you’ll reach a point beyond which additional increases will result in a progressive decline in output. In other words, adding a ton of talent in a single draft class can bottleneck the progression of prospects because their developmental pathways are exceedingly similar AND there are only so many minutes/touches available!
This concept is why Brooklyn is the first team to ever use 5 picks in a single round, breaking the 2009 Timberwolves record of 4 first round picks (Rubio, Flynn, Lawson -> traded to DEN, and Ellington). The Timberwolves and Nets’ hauls share a couple of similarities beyond the size, as Brooklyn also selected multiple on-ball guards within the same class.
The Nets clearly have a type, drafting the 3 players in the class that averaged more than six assists per 36 minutes, echoing Sean Marks’ emphasis on adding players who play “0.5-second basketball”, valuing players who “don’t hold the ball.” This draft philosophy certainly is viable, especially in a league that’s increasing playing faster with more ballhandlers on the floor. The issue is that Brooklyn’s particular selections overlap in terms of role, skillset and weaknesses, which only compound the negative impact of the law of diminishing returns.
2. Who will win the rookie PG battle?
During the Nets media day, @LucasKaplan_shared this quote from Jordi Fernandez: “We have 3 point guards, and the 3 point guards are rookies, so they’re going to get thrown into the fire. We’re going to trust them.” This establishes that the Nets view Egor as a point guard, emphasizing that they’re fully committed to playing guard roulette. While Egor, Nolan and Saraf are all roughly the same archetype offensive player, they each have particular quirks that distinguish their playstyles.
Denim’s 6’8 frame unlocks passing windows and lineup versatility the other guards will never be able to access, Traore is the best athlete and standstill driver, while Saraf boasts the most refined scoring craft and pace modulation. I think Egor is easily pencilled in for 30 minutes a night, as he can larp as a wing next to either of the other 2 guards and be relatively impactful off the ball with his 3P volume.
The real debate comes down to Traore and Saraf’s minutes share. Nolan has a long way to go as an OTD shooter, an absolute necessity for any modern lead guard. He shot an abysmal 27% and 24% on pull-up 2s and 3s over the last 2 years, though his FT% (74%) and C&S 3P numbers (39.1%) indicate some overall shooting upside. Those indicators combined with his first step and perpetual rim pressure gives him a leg up over the athletically challenged Saraf, who shot just 38%!! @ the rim in the halfcourt. I’m anticipating BKN to give the Nolan the lead initiator role with Cam off the floor, putting Saraf in a more scoring-focused role.
3. Can Claxton bounce back from his worst season yet?
Claxton had his 1st season since his rookie year where he shot a below league average TS%, seeing massive dips in his 2P FG%. That’s to be expected considering Cam Thomas played just 25 games, meaning Claxton was quite literally surrounded by the worst offensive talent in his entire career, posting a -2.8 estimated teammate offensive help in 2025, a full ~ 3 points lower than his career average. That context is paramount for a play finisher like Nic, but has the context improved enough to see his efficiency return to normal?
estimated teammate help via databallr
Cam and MPJ are both famously known for their reluctance to swing the rock, so while Clax likely won’t directly benefit from their playmaking, the sheer scoring gravity should help prevent teams from loading up on his rolls. BKN will also likely play faster this year, a playtype where Clax has consistently been a T50 scorer in the league, but he saw his lowest transition possessions per game last year. The boost in willing outlet passers and overall youth should also help get him even more looks in transition, where he can create cross matches by beating his matchup down the floor.
The Nets 2023 1st round picks are extension-eligible this summer, what do Dariq Whitehead and Noah Clowney need to show to be locked into the core long-term?
Drafting 5 rookies lights a fire under the more “seasoned” young talent, as BKN will need to make decisions about both Whitehead and Clowney this offseason. Clowney has easily has the clearer path to a NBA role, he was quietly a really good rim protector in his 2nd year (-7.9 rim FG% diff, 89th%) AND took a ton of 3s (12.5 3PA/100). Those are strong baseline skills that give him rotational potential if he can use his improved frame to finish better at the rim (57.4 rim %, 9th%).
Dariq has a very, very long way to go, playing just ~ 250 NBA minutes last year after foot and shin surgery truncated his 1st 2 seasons. Even before the injuries, as a prospect Dariq had a litany of indicators he could struggle to translate to the NBA. He took just 22.8% of his shots at the rim and shot 53%, posted a 9.2 AST% (25th%) with a 0.8 AST/TO ratio, offered little rebounding value for his frame AND displayed contact aversion, with a 14.7% free-throw rate that would’ve ranked 2nd LOWEST in the 2025 class.
This is his likely his last chance with Brooklyn, as they acquired another combo guard with injury issues this summer, who had much, much stronger pre-draft indicators than Whitehead did. Whichever guard pans out the most will likely be extended.
*Update: The Nets waived Bufkin & Whitehead.
5. How will Jordi balance the rotation?
The guard rotation aside, Fernandez has a bunch of conflicting timelines he needs to sort out and evaluate. The end goal is of course to be bad enough to get a top draft pick, but that doesn’t mean Brooklyn should run 5-rookie lineups — though that could be fun — Jordi will need to play conducive *enough* units to ease the rooks into NBA action. I’d imagine one of Cam or MPJ is on the floor for all 48 minutes to give their pass-first young guys an offensive anchor. Highsmith (and maybe Mann) should be relatively heavily featured in the 1st half of the season to drum up some trade interest, plus they need to get a large enough sample to be confident about the Bufkin/Whitehead prognosis.
Record Prediction
Total Wins Over/Under: 20.5 via BetMGM
Floor: 25–57 (-1 wins)
The Nets can flip the active tanking switch easier than anyone besides WAS and UTA, though I sense that won’t be until the last 30 or so games.
Ceiling: 33–49 (+7 wins)
In the NBA, consistent effort goes a long way. The Nets had a desperation and edge about them last season, outperforming their expected win total by the 2nd highest margin the league. I expect to somewhat persist in Jordi’s 2nd year, even with less players fighting for their professional careers.
Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Nets this season?
I’m a lifelong basketball enthusiast who blends film study and advanced analytics in my independent coverage of basketball and the NBA Draft across Tiktok, Twitter, Youtube, Substack and Instagram. I’ve also covered the Hawks for ~2 years as an accredited digital journalist for Afro News, and I am a member of the Atlanta Hawks’ Creators Collective.
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