30 teams, 30 days: Denver Nuggets | 2026 Season Preview

Welcome to my 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions.

Notable Additions: Cam Johnson, Bruce Brown, Jonas Valančiūnas, Tim Hardaway Jr.

Notable Subtractions: Russell Westbrook, Dario Šarić, DeAndre Jordan, Michael Porter Jr.

Depth Chart:

PG: Jamal Murray / Bruce Brown / Jalen Pickett

SG: Christian Braun / Tim Hardaway Jr / Curtis Jones / Tamar Bates

SF: Cam Johnson / Julian Strawther / Hunter Tyson / Spencer Jones

PF: Aaron Gordon / Peyton Watson / Zeke Nnaji

C: Nikola Jokic / Jonas Valančiūnas / Da’Ron Holmes II

Roster Hierarchy:

Franchise: Nikola Jokic

Core: Aaron Gordon, Jamal Murray

Key Rotation: Cam Johnson, Christian Braun, Bruce Brown, Peyton Watson, Jonas Valančiūnas

Rotation: Jalen Pickett, Julian Strawther, Tim Hardaway Jr, Da’Ron Holmes II, Zeke Nnaji

Development: Tamar Bates, Hunter Tyson, Spencer Jones, Curtis Jones

Offseason Overview:

It’s been 7 years since the NBA has seen a repeat champion, evidence of the parity that’s defined the 2020s, but it’s also an indicator that even defending champions shouldn’t “run it back”. Year after year, we’ve seen the defending champions return their championship roster in hopes of repeating, just to lose before the Conference Finals. Denver met that same fate following their 2023 title, a reflection of how imperative it is for NBA teams to address even the smallest of flaws in this uber-talented era.

Denver was much more aggressive this off-season, retooling around Joker by picking up former Nugget Bruce Brown on a one year deal, converting MPJ into Cam Johnson and bringing in the first center in the Jokic era that could at least somewhat approximate his playstyle. Their approach this offseason was a clear response to their loss to OKC in the 2nd round, driven by a need to be a more dynamic team on both ends.

Pre-Draft Areas of Need:

🥇 3P Generation: 30th in 3-Point Attempt Rate (35.6%), 5th in 3P% (37.6%)

🥈 Downhill Pressure: 29th in Drive FGA/G (16.1), 27th in Rim Shot Creation

🥉 Off-Screen Scoring: 5th in off-ball screen frequency (4.7%), 21st in Off-Ball PPP (only playtype they were below-average in)

Cam and Bruce introduce some much-needed ballhandling and shooting ability on a variety of playtypes.

Season Outlook:

1. What makes Cam Johnson a clear upgrade over MPJ?

As mentioned in the off-season overview, DEN emphasized versatility and dynamism this offseason, with the MPJ -> Cam Johnson swap embodying this directive. On both ends, Cam Johnson has a wider breadth of skills, in direct contrast to MPJ’s hyper focused rebounding and overall playfinishing ability. Their playtype data reflects this difference, as an overwhelming 93% of MPJ’s plays came out of shooting or finishing playtypes compared to just 82% for Cam Johnson. Johnson ran more total PNRs (136) than MPJ’s TOTAL creation playtypes (Handler, Iso & Post-Ups).

Cam is the better and more willing passer as well, averaging more than double MPJ’s potential assists per 100 while taking better care of the ball (12.5 Bad Pass TOV%, 67th% vs MPJ’s 36th%). From a philosophical perspective, Denver is betting Cam’s closeout driving ability and passing skills can overcome the immense value lost from MPJ’s rebounding and contested finishing/shooting ability, something that’s gone underappreciated by NBA fans, especially with the lasting image of an injured MPJ struggling in his last mins as a Nugget.

I don’t think there’s any question that Cam Johnson is the more conducive offensive fit terms of keeping the offense flowing but I think there’s also an argument that MPJ is the far superior finisher, whose 91st% Team Missed OREB% added so much value with Jokić having such a proclivity for taking floaters. Can they offset that loss? My initial thoughts is they can, especially with the defense likely taking an uptick with Cam guarding wings.

2. Can Jonas (and Da’Ron) pull off a Jokic impression?

One of the biggest dilemmas heliocentric offenses face is solving what the bench offense looks like with their engine off the floor. Since Jokic ascended to superstardom, DEN has never had a big on the roster that was capable of cosplaying as a mini Jokic, someone that the bench units could be comfortable with entering the ball into the post and more importantly, at the top of the key to initiate handoff and screening actions.

Homes was supposed to be initiated into this role as a rookie, as an awesome facilitator in college relative to his position. At 6’8 with a 7’1 wingspan, he poses a natural mismatch to traditional centers on the perimeter with his intersection of touch and agility, which made his injury so devastating. It would be foolish to thrust that role onto a player who’s essentially a rookie, so the Jonas acquisition made perfect sense for DEN. Valančiūnas has his similarities to Jokic as a big body screener and handoff hub, ranking comfortably in the upper echelon of big man playmakers over the last 4 years (8.2 Potential Assists/100, 83rd% among centers).

Of course, neither of these guys will be anywhere near as effective as Jokic, but they at least unlock the ability to run similar actions with him off the floor, allowing the bench offense to run more comfortably.

3. Is there another level for Peyton Watson and Christian Braun?

When former GM Calvin Booth was interviewed following the Nuggets’ title, a big theme of his overall approach to roster construction was his intention to replace the more expensive vets with seasoned rookies. This explains why DEN was comfortable letting Bruce Brown and KCP walk, elevating guys such as Christian Braun to replace their roles. That belief in Christian’s ability to play off of Jokić came to fruition last season, with Braun posting one of the most efficient seasons by a guard ever (+9 rTS%, 100th%) and ranking 1st in Transition Points Added.

Despite the play finishing synergy between Braun and Jokic, there are a number of questions about both his offensive and defensive deficiencies that could determine whether he’s a long-term starter for the Nuggets. The biggest weakness right now is his lack of shooting gravity, his 4.1 3PA per 100 poss ranked in just the 3rd% among guards. He’s pretty comfortably the least willing shooter among starting shooting guards, which incentivizes defenses to sag off of him and go under any screening actions. He exerts a ton of effort on defense and is usually solid positionally, but he doesn’t add much value as a defensive playmaker, ranking in the 24th% in deflections rate.

Peyton Watson’s -7.7 rim DFG% and 2.9% STOP% (79th%>) underscores his impressive defensive ability, but his struggles on the other end would likely make him one of the worst offensive players in the league without the Jokic stimmy. There’s still a lot of work for him to do as a shooter and decision maker, but he can get close to league average by utilizing his length and athleticism more defectively as a finisher. If any of those two guys take steps forward offensively, I feel a lot better about this team’s chance to contend.

4. What principles will Adelman install in his 1st full year?

It’s a tall task to try and replace the coach that brought a franchise their first title, and Adelman had to begin his 1st head coaching tenure with 3 games left in the regular season. Under Malone, DEN was an aggressive transition offense that hunted leak outs, with an equally aggressive man scheme that necessitated coordinated “nexting”, or the passing off of assignments once DEN put 2 on the ball, to insulate Jokic’s lack of rim protection and vulnerabilities on the perimeter.

Adelman’s spoke on DEN’s pace and offensive versatility extensively in the media availability following his hiring, stating “Our transition game was very impactful throughout the season, but some of that does not translate to the playoffs….We have to get back to being an execution-based team.” He mentioned that he’s willing to reduce their overall pace if it translates to a more resilient offense in the playoffs. Adelman also pointed to outside shooting as DEN’s highest area of need, a clear point of emphasis this offseason with their acquisitions of Cam and THJ.

His comments on DEN’s defense were revealing as well, pointing to the Nuggets’ zone defense effectiveness indicating a need and ability to be more creative with their defense schemes. They’ve been in a heavy show and recovery PNR coverage for years, though I imagine Adelman will mix in zone looks similar to what HOU deployed with both bigs on the floor.

5. Is this team better equipped to go toe to toe with their biggest competition?

Of course, the most prevailing question for a team like Denver is whether they’ve done enough to firmly be among the upper echelon of contenders. While they played OKC extremely closely over the course of that 7-game series, there was far too many stretches Denver was just completely and utterly overmatched.

The biggest takeaway from the playoffs that DEN needs to internalize is that they must have a variety of ways to both defend and initiate offense. Too often throughout their postseason runs, the Nuggets have been overly reliant on Jokic/Murray PNRs to generate advantages. A lot of that is a direct trade off of surrounding Jokic with high-level play finishers who maximize his offensive value, but are more easily compromised against an OKC team that can crowd DEN’s less comfortable ballhandlers. The Thunder were able to put 40 mins of immense ball pressure on Jamal, stash a big on Braun to roam off of Jokic with Caruso playing him extremely physically all while sitting in heavy gap defense because of their collective agility.

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That feels like an impossible problem to solve, unless of course you also have a game breaking exploit. DEN has relied so heavily on Jokic to sew together cohesive offensive possessions, but now they can generate advantages with their collective passing ability, rather than solely looking to Jokic to create quality looks. This is a massive improvement, boding well for their potential matchups that encourage teams to isolate or only involve 2 guys in an action. On paper, the Nuggets are without a doubt in a better position to contend for a title than they were a few months ago. It will come down to how quickly and effectively they can integrate Bruce Brown and Cam Johnson, whether Tim Hardway Jr. and Jonas can provide rotational value, and if the boost in passing ability across the roster proves to be robust enough to translate to the playoffs.

Record Prediction

Total Wins Over/Under: 53.5 via BetMGM

Floor: 48–34 (-2 wins)

The Nuggets have won at least 45 games since 2018, a trend I fully expect to continue. This offseason may have been defined by moves to maximize their postseason performance, but this team is pencilled in as a Top 4 team in the West every year Jokic plays 60+ games.

Ceiling: 58–24 (+8 wins)

There are a number of moving parts DEN needs to fall into place to get within range of achieving their 1st 60 win season in (NBA) franchise history, which all seem relatively realistic. Bruce is intimately familiar with the core already, Cam is extremely portable and Jonas and THJ seem like strong contributors as well. Add in some improvement from their young guys and this team could push OKC for 1st in the west.

Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Nets this season?

Overall Grade: A

Up Next: Orlando Magic