30 teams, 30 days: Golden State Warriors | 2026 Season Preview

Welcome to my 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions.

Notable Additions: Seth Curry, Al Horford, Alex Toohey, Will Richard

Notable Subtractions: Kevon Looney

Depth Chart:

PG: Stephen Curry / Gary Payton II / Seth Curry / Pat Spencer

SG: Brandin Podziemski / Buddy Hield / De’Anthony Melton / Will Richard

SF: Moses Moody / Gui Santos / Alex Toohey

PF: Jimmy Butler / Jonathan Kuminga / Jackson Rowe

C: Draymond Green / Al Horford / Quinten Post / Trayce Jackson-Davis

Roster Hierarchy:

Franchise: Stephen Curry

Core: Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green

Key Rotation: Bradin Podziemski, Moses Moody, Gary Payton II, Al Horford, Jonathan Kuminga, Buddy Hield

Rotation: Gui Santos, De’Anthony Melton, Quinten Post, Seth Curry, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Pat Spencer

Development: Will Richard, Alex Toohey, Jackson Rowe

Offseason Overview:

We’ve seen plenty midseason superstar trades, but very few have instantly transformed a team the way Jimmy Butler did once he touched down in the Bay. Golden State was just 25-25 before acquiring Butler, with a -0.8 net rating, the 9th worst offense in the league (112.1), the 6th least efficient shot profile (54.6 location eFG%) all while averaging the 2nd lowest FTA per 100 possessions in the association (16.3). The Warriors approach to this offseason can be summed up in the following numbers — 22-5, +8.6, 119.1, 55.2%, and 23.2% — Golden State’s record with Butler and Curry plus their net rating (3rd), offensive rating (8th), shot quality (13th) and FTA per 100 possessions (1st) after the Butler trade.

In case that isn’t enough of a statistical case to justify the Warriors’ decision to largely run it back this year, according to @automaticnba, the Dubs had just 5 games shooting above 55% on layups and 75% on free throws in the 50 games before Jimmy’s arrival, the fewest in the NBA. It took less than a month for the Warriors to rack up 8 such games, the most in the league in that span. Curry is still a transcendent offensive force, Draymond is somehow still his equal defensively and Jimmy Butler weaves them together with the deft handiwork of the consummate steward.

Pre-Draft Areas of Need:

🥇 Self-Creation: 29th in Self-Created FGA/g (29th), 27th in Self-Created eFG% (46.6%), 28th in Drive FGA/g (17.2) in 3PAr (42.9%), 28th in On-Ball PPP (.84)

🥈 Paint Dominance: won 69.4% of the games they had MORE paints in the paint than their opponents (7th), but only achieved that in 36 games (17th), 35.8 Rim & Post FGA/g (27th), 5th in Opp Rim & Post FGA/g (24.5)

🥉 Rebounding Support: 6th in RPG (45.3), outrebounded opponents in 47 games (6th)

GSW’s acquisitions are pointing to more minutes playing 5-out, which in conjunction with Looney leaving for NOLA, almost guarantees to dampen their offensive rebounding advantage.

Season Outlook:

1. Which 2 players are the best complement to Curry, Butler & Green?

The Warriors’ star trio requires connective players around them who can keep the offense flowing, while exerting the defensive effort the oldheads may not have on any given night. Of the 950 possessions Curry, Green & Butler played together last season, 48% of their minutes came next to Podz and Moody. Those 2 proved to be the best fit around Curry/Green/Butler, with that destroying opponents by a net differential of 17.9 points per 100 possessions, the 4th best lineup in the league among lineups that played a minimum of 400 poss together.

The interesting thing is, with Podz OFF the floor, Curry/Dray/Butler units got outscored by 8.5 points per 100…and with Moody OFF the floor, they got outscored by 1.6 points per 100. Moody and Podz were clearly the best complimentary pieces next to the trip, but I expect Melton and Horford to have similar impacts, as 2-way players with plus spacing ability and connective offensive skillsets. Ideally, the Warriors’ star trio plays at least 80% of their minutes flanked by 2 of Podz, Moody, Horford and Melton.

2. Can Horford’s unique skillset further unlock the Warriors’ system?

The Warriors have never rostered a player that remotely resembles Horford’s unique skillset, as a 2-way stretch 5 that can both switch on defense and protect the rim. His archetype is both incredibly rare AND expensive, a luxury that GSW has never been able to afford with their expensive core.

They’ve rostered a number of stretch 5s (Post: 12.7 3PA/100, Šarić: 8.7 3PA/100, Jerebko: 7.3 3PA/100, Bjelica: 6.4 3P/100) but none of these players can/could protect the rim. Their best rim protectors in the Curry era ( BLK% > 4: McGee, Bell, Bogut, Ezeli, TJD) all have career 3PA/100 poss far below 1. 2019 Cousins is the closest approximation to the 2-way stretch 5 archetype, averaging 5.9 3PA/100 poss with a 4.8 BLK%, but his injuries had diminished his mobility and defensive impact at that point in his career.

Over the last 3 years, Horford shot 41.2% on 8.4 3P/100, averaged a 3.0 BLK%, forced opponents to shoot -3% worse at the rim when he contested and graded out as one of the best isolation defenders among centers. As a result, Al is the 1st big in the Curry era that will allow them to play 5-out with or without Draymond. Kerr will feature him heavily as a handoff hub and on-ball and off-ball screener to leverage his pick & pop ability with Curry’s gravity.

3. Who can emerge as a reliable 3rd big?

Looney was the epitome of consistent on-court impact in his 10 years as a Warrior, singlehandedly carrying GSW’s offensive rebounding edge while setting crushing screens and finishing plays at the rim. His departure in free agency leaves a void of reliability that one of Quentin Post or Trayce Jackson-Davis needs to fulfill to minimize the load on Horford and Draymond.

Last season, TJD struggled mightily as a finisher, finishing the year as 4th worst in the league overall, shooting just 64% at the rim (35th% among bigs), because despite his vertical athleticism, his lack of touch led to a sub-50% FG% on lay-ups. He also saw a dropoff defensively, as his rim DFG% diff 1fell from -8.3% in 2024 (88th%) to -2.8% in 2025 (31st%). As a result, the Warriors were 9.6 points WORSE with him on the court vs off, the worst on/off differential of any rotation player on the roster.

Post saw a less dramatically negative impact (-1.0 on/off differential), thanks to his ability to stretch the floor (99th% 3P/100 as a big). His defense needs a ton of work and he isn’t a prolific shot blocker, but his contesting metrics — -5.7 rim DFG% diff — suggest he’s solid positionally. My bet would be on Post becoming the default 3rd big, especially since Horford is comfortable operating in double-big lineups.

4. Will Kuminga (and the other young guys) be able to shoulder more of the regular season load?

GSW needs to ensure their elderly core has enough in the tank for the playoffs, as the 82-game grind of the regular season becomes tougher every year for players on the wrong side of 30. Curry graded out as the 2nd most influential offensive player in the league last year in my proprietary metric, ENGINE2, due to his massive +13.1 On/Off Swing (99th%) relative to one of the weakest offensive supporting casts in the league (-2.6 estimated offensive help).

Jimmy Butler was the only rotational Warrior to see an increase in his TS% and his PTS per 100 poss WITHOUT Curry in the regular season, further speaking to the lack of offensive firepower on this team.

This is the tradeoff of filling a roster with complimentary players, as it’s rare that these connective pieces can scale up without their star. Kuminga did scale up massively in the 2nd round of the playoffs once Curry went down, but his absence forced GSW to play a completely different (and ineffective) style. Kuminga had his worst season efficiency wise (-4.7 TS%) with the highest usage rate of his career (27.2%), mainly because he was the 2nd worst high-volume midrange shooter in the league, attempting 42% of his shots from midrange and shot 34.9% (17th%). More minutes next to a stretch-5 (Al, Post) should theoretically raise his efficiency, but GSW will need more from Podz as well.

He played exceptionally well once he entered the starting lineup (15.6 PPG on 58.5 TS%), BUT his unsustainable 43% from 3 and paltry 49.4 2P% suggests he won’t be able to sustain that effectiveness. GSW will need the their geriatric trio to carry most nights, and can likely only turn to Kuminga and Podz as innings-eaters against the NBA’s few bottom feeders when they can play a style that maximizes JK.

5. How quickly should Dunleavy look to shop Kuminga?

While Kuminga’s fit remains decisively murky, he still plays an aforementioned important role as a relief pitcher, usage sponge and downhill driver. However, if the fit continues to prove to be unfavorable, Dunleavy should waste no time attempting to bring in a more conducive piece. There hasn’t exactly been a bidding war for Kuminga’s services, and Sacramento and Phoenix aren’t quite the names that get Dubs fans excited about potential returns.

GSW is hard-capped at the 2nd apron, so they will need to pull off several cap machinations or find very close salary matches to pull off any deal. They could potentially scam Sacramento for Keegan Murray/Keon Ellis, raid PHX of their 3&D stash (Allen, O’Neale, etc.) or pull off a multi-team trade to bring in Zach Collins and Ayo.

Record Prediction

Total Wins Over/Under: 45.5 via BetMGM

Floor: 38–44 (-10 wins)

The days of the Warriors being a dominant regular season team are fading more and more each year, but their collective ability to resist the creaks and groans of old age gives them a Play-In floors in the West. Curry/Butler/Green is too good of a trio to not win at least 38 games, even if they only play 50 combined games together.

Ceiling: 52–30 (+4 wins)

The Warriors had absolutely no business winning 48 games last year, a strong testament to Curry’s continued brilliance and the beautiful synergy Butler provided in their 30ish games together. That pairing alone inspires enough confidence in me to visualize the Warriors topping out as a top 6 Western Conference team.

Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Warriors this season?

Overall Grade: B

Up Next: Dallas Mavericks