30 teams, 30 days: Houston Rockets | 2026 Season Preview

Welcome to my 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions.

Notable Additions: Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Clint Capela

Notable Subtractions: Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks

Depth Chart:

PG: Fred VanVleet / Reed Sheppard / Aaron Holiday / JD Davison

SG: Amen Thompson / Josh Okogie / Kevon Harris

SF: Kevin Durant / Tari Eason / Jae’Sean Tate

PF: Jabari Smith Jr. / Dorian Finney-Smith / Jeff Green / Isaiah Crawford

C: Alperen Şengün / Steven Adams / Clint Capela

Roster Hierarchy:

Franchise: Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson

Core: Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Fred VanVleet

Starters/Key Rotation: Steven Adams, Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard, Dorian Finney-Smith

Rotation: Clint Capela, Aaron Holiday, Josh Okogie, Jeff Green, Jae’Sean Tate

Development: Isaiah Crawford, JD Davison, Kevon Harris

Offseason Overview:

The 2025 Rockets leaned heavily on their stifling defense and offensive rebounding ability to secure the #2 seed in the West. Their excellence generating additional possessions on the glass helped compensate for their anemic halfcourt offense, a weakness that become even more glaring in their 1st round playoff loss. Houston wasted zero time in the offseason once KD become available, acquiring KD for the small price of their biggest bottleneck, Jalen Green.

Durant, the league’s most potent iso scorer AND the most portable superstar in the league, immediately addresses Houston’s biggest offensive flaws without compromising their defense or hijacking the offense. Ime will need to get in his bag to find the optimal balance between KD, Amen, FVV and Şengün touches, as he finally has the requisite offensive pieces to boost HOU to their first T10 halfcourt offense since Harden left in 2021.

Pre-Draft Areas of Need:

🥇 Shooting: 24th in PTS Added/100 on wide-open 3s; 28th in Catch-&-Shoot 3PAr (25.4%)

🥈 Perimeter Shot Creation: 46.1% of total shots self-created (3rd) but 23rd in self-created eFG%

🥉 Connectivity: 30th in passes/game; 28th in assists/game

Houston did a phenomenal job addressing their pre-draft areas of need without making a single selection, packaging the #10 pick from the Suns for KD, the league’s most potent iso scorer AND the most portable superstar in the league

Season Outlook:

1. How will Durant synergize with Şengün?

Durant’s scoring arsenal is so optimized and efficient that he fits in any offense, next to any star. I have zero questions about his ability to get buckets playing off of Şengün in HOU’s system, but I am curious how his presence will impact Alpi as both a creator and a finisher. Şengün is one of the league’s premier inverted pick and roll bigs and an excellent driver from the nail (edges of the FT line), scenarios where KD’s shooting gravity when popping after a brush/ghost screen or spacing 1 pass away should clear the lane for Alpi to get to work.

However, Şengün’s finishing numbers have been poor for a big his whole career (-5 career finishing rTS%), which could be attributed to the lack of spacing he’s always had to play with, suboptimal guard playmaking and/or his lower-body strength/touch. His minutes with KD will shed some light on whether Alpi is truly limited as a finisher, if he continues to struggle in a better offensive context.

2. What’s Amen’s optimal offensive role?

Rick Carlisle spoke on Cailtin Cooper’s podcast about the tradeoffs between 5-out and 4-out, 1-in alignments, pointing out how teams can create wider driving lanes with a player sitting in the dunker. Amen is one of the weakest shooters that play heavy rotation minutes BUT he does have the necessary combo of athleticism/length/contact finishing ability to be effective playing out of the dunker. Thompson also has an extremely quick first step and the passing + handle to run the offense from the top of the key.

It’s both unrealistic and unfair to expect Amen to become a high volume 3P shooter, so he has to tighten up his decision making with the ball in his hands. His pacing has to be more variable as well, too often he just dives at the rim and gets himself in trouble.

When he’s spaced, he doesn’t have enough shooting gravity to keep defenders from giving him a cushion when closing out, evidenced by his extremely low drive blow-by rate (15.9%, 82nd out of 77 qualified player). Ideally, Houston can place him in alignments where he can be more effective as a cutter, finisher, driver and playmaker.

3. Where does Jabari Smith Jr. fit with KD/DFS?

Jabari has flashed some interesting creation upside throughout the years, despite being tasked with being exclusively a stretch 4 on offense in HOU. He was one of the better post-up scorers in the league (albeit on low-volume) this past season, and maintained his positive defensive impact as a weakside rim protector. I expect him to remain in a tertiary role, but a step forward in his aggression and comfortability off the dribble would unlock new heights for this Houston team. He doesn’t ended to be an amazing self-creator, but more comfortability driving closeouts would go a long way in establishing himself in the closing lineups.

4. Will the Reed Sheppard bet pay off?

The trade for KD and the subsequent signings of DFS, Okogie, etc., solidified Reed Sheppard’s place as the lead ballhandler for the second unit. While Amen, Şengün and KD can all initiate for themselves, Reed has a unique place next to FVV as the lead ballhandlers for a roster that is extremely wing/big tilted. Rookies tend to struggle to carve out a role on contending rosters, and Reed’s rookie year was no different. He appeared in 52 games playing mostly garbage time-minutes, which led to a very underwhelming stat line on the season.

However, his 3P volume (.58 3PAr, 10.2 3P/100) + steal% (2.6%) are strong indicators for a rookie, especially because those traits persisted in summer league, the G-League AND the NBA level, even if the 3P% tailed off from his all-time great collegiate season. Houston needs Reed to be great, several steps above the lower-end Jevon Carter/Facundo Campazzo outcomes. I’m willing to bet on the intersection of nuclear shooting ability, defensive playmaking and spatial awareness despite the lack of varsity reps Reed got this past season, and it appears HOU agrees.

5. Who absorbs JG4/Dillon’s vacated shots?

In ‘25, JG4 and Brooks combined to average 48.2 true shot attempts (TSA = FGA + FTA) per 100 possessions. KD has cracked 30+ TSA just once since 2017 and is averaging 28 TSA over the last 3 years, DFS is averaging ~ 13 over the last 3 years. That puts their total TSA at 41, meaning that it’s likely there are 6-8ish shots on the table for guys to scale up into. Jabari and Amen likely have the best chance at growing their offensive usage, but Reed’s emergence is what could extend this team’s contention window far beyond the next 2-3 years KD is on the roster. Houston needs consistent guard play badly when FVV is on the floor, and if Reed is able to step up to the task, the Rockets are firmly on course to become a dynasty.

Record Prediction

Total Wins Over/Under: 55.5 via BetMGM

Floor: 48-34 (-4 wins)

I can’t stress enough how massive it is for this to team to replace Jalen Green’s shot usage with Kevin Durant’s shot usage. Durant is a stim shot for HOU offense that flatlined constantly throughout the season, as an incredible late-clock bail out option that also fits in seamlessly in organized offensive scenarios with Amen and Sengun. With that being said, I find it hard to see any scenario where this Rockets team is materially worse than their #2 finish in 2025.

Ceiling: 60-22 (+8 wins)

As confident as I am about Houston’s floor as a T3-T4 seed, thanks to their defensive projection, their ceiling is more uncertain. Even with KD’s unique portability that I’ve referenced more than a few times in this write-up, HOU will inevitably be in a calibration period for the first couple weeks of the season, an adjustment period the top-tier teams in the West won’t experience. The collection of talent is undoubtedly there, but the questions surrounding Amen’s optimal deployment, Reed’s ability to semi-lead bench units and Jabari’s offensive involvement introduce enough variability for me that I would be surprised to see Houston finish 1st over the more-matured rosters in the West.

Overall Grade: A

Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Rockets this season?

Up Next: Philadelphia 76ers