30 teams, 30 days: Los Angeles Clippers | 2027 Season Preview

Welcome to the 4th edition of my annual 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions. For the first time, these articles will be exclusively posted on the Hardwood Collective and are paired with video deep-dives over on my Youtube and full-length podcast episodes over on The Fifth Factor!

Notable Additions: Brandon Ingram, Max Strus, Rui Hachimura, Keaton Wagler, Bradley Beal (re-signed), Gradey Dick, Jordan Miller (re-signed), Kobe Sanders (re-signed), Johni Broome, Baba Miller, Nick Martinelli, Jalen Pickett, Jamarion Sharp, Yuki Kawamura

Draft Pick Comps & Strengths + Weaknesses

5). Keaton Wagler:

I don't believe there was a single person who had a draftable grade on Keaton Wagler before the 2025-2026 season started. Wagler was criminally under-recruited in high-school, as he didn't play on any top of the top AAU circuits, which ultimately led to him not even being ranked prior to committing to Illinois. When J. Kyle Mann came on The Fifth Factor Podcast, he shared that Puma not having a Synergy deal kept him in relative obscurity, but his ascension in the NCAA was no surprise to those who were familiar with his exploits on that circuit. He shot north of 85% from the FT line and 40% from the 3P line on hundreds upon hundreds of attempts in high school, regularly displaying the same craft and touch that he used to great success at the next level.

Domination is the best word to encapsulate what Wagler did offensively for the Fighting Illini, with his magnum opus coming against Purdue, lighting up the Boilermakers for 46 points. My DRE score graded this as one of the 10 best games by a freshman vs T100 competition since 2006, a truly once in every few years level of performance. The shotmaking was absurd, but I did still leave this game feeling a bit neutral about Keaton, since the vast majority of his buckets came on switches vs slow-footed bigs, with him generally opting to launch a stepback over them instead of attacking their slow-footedness. This reliance on his outside shot combined with a lack of physicality, dreadful 2-point scoring, complete lack of verticality (just 1 dunk) and very little defensive playmaking caused me to hem and haw about where I would place him in the hierarchy of 2026 guards.

Ultimately, I chose to trust the production and how he admirably he upscaled as an on-ball creator with Kylan Boswell's injury plus the fashion in which he regained some of the rebounding and defensive production once Kylan returned. Keaton was never really supposed to be featured this heavily as a lead creator, which makes his success that much more impressive. He also had the ideal shot profile for a guard looking to make a leap to the NBA, attempting nearly 40% of his shots out of PNR from the 3p line, using the step back to create space on his drives and utilizing his excellent sense of pace to throw defenders off balance to get to the FT line. Only Christian Anderson had a more efficient NBA-ready shot profile, but Wagler is 5 inches taller, which unlocks has far more positional versatility than Anderson. Keaton played in a system that emphasized risk aversion on both offense and defense, which can explain both his stellar assist:turnover ratio and the anemic defensive playmaking rates, though his shot chart being this optimized bodes well for his playmaking footprint to follow him to the NBA.

A long-term pairing with Darius Garland would require a ton of physical growth from Keaton, to the extent that I don't think it's even worth attempting, as even if he does rapidly develop his frame, I don't think we'll ever see him fully maximized off-ball, especially next to a smaller guard. One of his most valuable traits is being able to function as a lead guard in a wing's frame, handcuffing him to a player that only makes your team even weaker and more diminutive is nonsensical. I hope for both the Clippers' and Wagler's sake that they're cognizant of the type of player they're going to be building around for the foreseeable future.

 "I showed all last year that you don’t have to be the most athletic guy on the court to score the ball and be a really good player. I just find different ways to use my body and manipulate the defense, even though I’m not the strongest guy out there. Just being the aggressor on offense and using my change of pace, getting into the lane. That’s what separates me from the other guards in this class.” - One of my favorite quotes from the 2026 class.

36). Baba Miller:

Baba Miller ranked as the 26th worst scorer off the catch in the nation last year at about .695 points per possession, which was equivalent to the second percentile among players with at least 80 spot ups. He had the 11th worst spot-up three point percentage among that same sample, making just six of his 37 spot-up 3PA. This is in line with his career 62% from the free throw line and 29% from 3 on almost 300+ attempts. I'm starting this profile with Baba's weaknesses instead of his strengths, because he struggles so much as a shooter that it may prevent him from being able to effectively showcase his gifts in the league.

He made massive strides as a passer in his final collegiate year, posting a 1.7 ATO, a 23.3 assist percentage and a 1.04 assist:usage ratio, which were all career highs and indicators of its growth in terms of both willingness (assist percentage and assist:usage ratio) and ability, by finally generating more assists than turnovers. You could see his growth in the way he was able to function as a point forward for stretches, threading passes through tight windows and running the break in transition.

There are things outside of the passing that Baba could further embrace in order to become a viable rotation. He was much stronger on the offensive and defensive glass this past year, posting career highs in both DREB% (27.7%) and OREB% (8.3%). Miller was better positionally on defense as well, protecting the rim decently on the weakside while maintaining the mobility to slide his feet on the perimeter. He also got the FT line more frequently, posting a 53.2 FTR and a .80 FTR on drives. These aspects while being 6'11 with real off the dribble fluidity is tantalizing, but he's got some ball control issues that, in conjunction with the lack of shooting equity, makes it difficult to platform him as a decision marker. When we look at his playfinishing ability, the 19% dunk rate masks a frame that isn't very suited to finishing plays, evidenced by a 24% turnover rate as a pick and roll roll man and a 23rd%ile points per possession. Baba is still representative of a super valuable archetype, but will be capped in terms of viability until he can draw the respect of defenses when in the corner.

55). Nick Martinelli:

Guys in this mold, undersized collegiate bigs that just do a lot of different things, can be effective at the NBA level if they have enough bend and flexibility to move their game to the perimeter. Martinelli has an extremely unorthodox game with one of the most evenly allocated playtype distributions I can recall, with Post-Ups, P&R Roll Man, Spot-Ups, Cuts and Transition Poss each accounting for 10 to 15% of his scoring possessions. He was excellent in 4 of the 5 playtypes and has strong touch indicators on floaters (53.5% on 101 attempts), hooks (50% on 54 attempts) and 81% from the line on 220 attempts, but his athletic limitations really limited his effectiveness at the rim. His best bet is to continue to develop as a 3P shooter, as his driving possessions suggest that he's teetering on that line of not being pliable enough to move his scoring arsenal further from the basket.

Notable Subtractions: Kawhi Leonard, Bennedict Mathurin, John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanović, Nicolas Batum, Sean Pedulla, Norchad Omier, TyTy Washington Jr., Henri Veesaar

Depth Chart + Roster Hierarchy

Franchise — N/A

Core — Keaton Wagler, Darius Garland

Key Rotation — Brandon Ingram, Max Strus, Rui Hachimura, Derrick Jones Jr., Brook Lopez

Rotation — Bradley Beal, Gradey Dick, Isaiah Jackson, Kris Dunn, Jordan Miller, Kobe Sanders

Development — Cam Christie, Baba Miller, Yanic Konan Niederhäuser, Nick Martinelli, Jalen Pickett

Cap Sheet

Offseason Overview

The Clippers are by far the oldest team to have never made a Finals appearance, with an almost 20 year head start on the Timberwolves. Their existence has been one marked by misfortune, controversy, pain and untimely injuries, from Chris Paul's meltdown in G5 in 2014 vs the Thunder, which effectively shut the door on the Lob City Clippers era with the rise of the Warriors, to religiously blowing 3-1 leads year after year. They've been mocked mercilessly for the Paul George trade, with the humiliation reaching its absolute crescendo when Shai Gilegous-Alexander hoisted the Bill Russell Finals MVP above his head in 2025. Through it all, I can't help but feel like 2021 was supposed to be their year, that Joe Ingles was never supposed to collide with Kawhi at that angle and that they were destined to ride their historic shooting ability to a title that would wash away the many sins of previous regimes.

All of the elements were there: they were a T10 offense and defense, 2nd in net rating (58-win 82 game pace), they boasted the greatest spot-up shooting team EVER and 2021 was a shortened season, which lessened the attrition on Kawhi's knees.

I've said more than a few times that I wished every owner could be like Steve Ballmer, so obsessed with basketball and competition that they would laugh in the face of the luxury tax and spare no expense in trying to construct contending rosters. Only Joe Lacob has dished out more luxury tax payments than Ballmer, which essentially means no owner has gotten a poorer return on their investment. Even with that considered, I would've never expected that he would turn to cap circumvention to attract talent, but can you blame a franchise that has been comically unlucky for exhausting every means to add talent?

The fallout of Kawhi's handshake agreement with the Clippers was the defining storyline of the offseason, though I've got to admit all my interest was on the on-court implications of whether the trade would be processed or not and just how severe the punishment would be for the Clippers. Silver opted to lay down the hammer squarely on the franchise alone, stripping the Clippers of 5 consecutive 1st round picks from 2029 to 2033, fining them $30 M and suspending Ballmer, the Clippers' POBO and GM Lawerence Frank for 6 months to a year. The Clippers can now add "most punitive punishment for misconduct in league history" to their long list of tragedies throughout their 56 years of existence.

I've always had a soft spot for the Clippers, selecting them as my Western Conference team, mainly because of my affinity for Chris Paul and Paul George, but also because of the stories my grandfather told of his forays into attempting to purchase a piece of equity before they were moved out of Buffalo. Maybe that's why I still have some intrigue in this team even after everything has been burned down to the ground, watching the foundation to see signs of budding growth of a brand new era.

Pre-Draft Areas of Need:

🥇 Transition Defense:

4 straight years as a bottom 10 transition defense, bottom 5 in 2 of last 4 on PPP basis

Somewhat Addressed: by getting younger, the Clippers will naturally be better at getting back, but they’re also going to likely be one of the higher turnover teams in the league and miss a decent amount of shots at the rim

🥈 Rebounding:

23rd in OREB%, 25th in DREB%

Somewhat Addressed: Ingram + Strus above average rebounders for their position

🥉 Replacing the Best Post-Up Offense in the last 20+ years:

1.162 PPP on Post-Ups including Passes

Not addressed: Everyone with meaningful volume besides Lopez is no longer a Clipper (lost 74.4% of the volume)

Season Outlook:

1) How can the Clippers adjust their offense with 4 of their 5 post-up threats from last season no longer on the roster?

One of the more fascinating things I found when I was looking into this team was their distinction as the most efficient post-up offense in modern NBA history. The Clippers scored 1.162 PPP on Post-Ups including Passes last year, with the combination of Kawhi Leonard, Zubac, Brook Lopez and even John Collins sealing mismatches down low with relative regularity. LAC would get to these looks in both the halfcourt and transition, running cross screens or just clearing out the corner with a baseline cut for a post touch for John Collins or Kawhi Leonard. Brook Lopez' spacing ability was a big component of the Clippers ranking in the 90th%ile in total post-up volume, as he could stretch opposing bigs away from the basket, lengthening the distance they needed to cover to help out their teammate who was in the post.

Post-ups are no longer a massive piece of any team's offense in 2026, but these easy buckets were vital for a team that was 23rd in transition frequency and 26th in Offensive Possession Length, which was a reflection of their standing as the 7th oldest team in the league when weighted by minutes played. This year's roster is drastically different, featuring 3 rostered rookies and only 2 players (Lopez + Beal) with more than 10 years of NBA experience, a stark contrast to the SIX geriatrics they brought into the 2025-2026 season. Thus, even if they had retained John Collins, it's likely that the degree in which these post-ups were featured in the offense would've shifted, with the team as a whole becoming more guard-centric.

We have a decent approximation of what Ty Lue could turn to with his post threats vacated, as the offense shifted from 9.3 postups per game with Zubac on the roster to 7.5 after he was traded to Indiana. This current iteration will have BI & Rui step into the Kawhi & JC roles in the offense, which should lead to somewhere between 2-4 postups per game for the two of them. Brook will likely get 1-2 duck-ins or "Barkley drives" after he catches on the perimeter, which will put LAC somewhere around league average in post-up volume. The rest of those reps will likely be converted into more PNR and guard to guard actions for Garland and Wagler.

2) What does an ideal development environment look like for Keaton Wagler? Is it even attainable for the Clippers?

There aren't many things Darius Acuff and Keaton Wagler have in common, besides being drafted in 2026 and somehow entering a WORSE spacing environment in the NBA than they had in college. The Fighting Illini had a ludicrous .78 3-point attempt rate on Roll-Man scoring possessions, a rate that no NBA team has even come close to (the 2025 Celtics & 2026 Pacers hold the record for .51). They attempted 5 threes per game out of pick & pop scenarios, which is the NCAA Division 1 record by a substantial margin. Illinois was an average catch & shoot 3P shooting team, but due to the sheer volume of their 3P attempts and gravity of their multiple stretch bigs, they were 91st% in layup efficiency, 98th%ile in P&R Scoring and 95th%ile in overall halfcourt PPP.

There's an argument that Illinois was one of the best spaced offenses we've ever seen at the collegiate level. In fact, they were so effective at carving out space that head coach Bruce Underwood would have his guards intentionally slow the pace, even when they had a chance to get out on the fast break, just so they could operate in the halfcourt. This is the infrastructure that Wagler thrived in, enabling his methodical, change of pace game and fostering his ascension up draft boards. However, even with this being such an ideal situation for his playstyle, Keaton was already a near-Teflon shooting prospect even before he stepped on Illinois' campus.

Los Angeles won't have quite the same level of aggregate shooting talent to surround Wagler wit, but they do have the league's leader in pick & pop attempts, Brook Lopez. Brook took 70% of his roll-man shots from behind the 3P line last season, making him and one of the best players to recreate Illinois' construction. 2026 was his worst season shooting PNP threes however, he hovered around 37% in the 3 years prior and shot just 24% this year. His reputation should still provide gravity for Keaton to operate nonetheless and it'll also help that the Clippers' FA signing, Rui Hachimura, was a T10 spot-up player in the league last year. He shot 50% in these situations and took nearly 60% of his roll-man FGA from behind the 3P line in his few possessions as a screener, which I would expect to see more of a volume in Intuit Dome. Max Strus replacing Bennedict Mathurin will benefit Keaton as well, in addition to playing off of Garland. LA won't be able to put premier talent around Keaton for his first couple years, but they have done a bang-up job of adding pieces that can give him enough space to not suffocate in as he develops.

3) Which big man can distinguish themselves as a core building block?

I was shocked when the Clippers waived Johni Broome, as I thought they were going to make an informed bet on adding some competition for an increasingly consequential position. Wagler and Garland are both relatively screen dependent players, so they need to have a reliable center who can spring them free and let them flourish out of PNR. Additionally, the NBA is trending back to being a bigs' league and the Clippers have one of the most underwhelming big man rotations in the league. Isaiah Jackson is currently penciled in as the starter, with 2025 2nd round pick Yanic Konan Niederauser rehabbing a Lisfranc injury.

This makes the Clippers undersized across the board, and while they do have players such as Kris Dunn, Kobe Sanders and Derrick Jones Jr. that punch above their weight a bit, they're also going to be featuring a decent mix of old folk (Bradley Beal, Brook Lopez), physical liabilities (Garland, Wagler, Christie) or low-motor/stiff defenders (BI, Dick, Strus). There's an clear athleticism deficit here as well, which I think could open up an opportunity for Baba Miller and/or Yanic to help flank Isaiah Jackson in the front court. These 3 are all 80th%ile or up in dunk rate in either their collegiate/most recently healthy NBA season (Jackson), which is especially impressive for the more wing-sized Jackson & Miller.

Isaiah probably has the most realistic claim to minutes as of right now, since he played a decent amount with the Clippers after the trade deadline and will get a head start on Yanic. Baba was a 100th%ile defensive rebounder in college and rapidly improved as a decision maker, so he could force his way into the rotation for a team that will really struggle on the glass. Yanic is still their only trye center-sized prospect, and likely their only one they can get on a rookie-contract for the foreseeable future, thus I envision them giving him plenty of runway to at least attempt to distinguish himself.

4) What type of season would Brandon Ingram need to have to avoid being traded once again?

There are shades of Kawhi Leonard's game in Brandon Ingram. There were 5 players last year who ran at least 250 pick & rolls, posted up 100+ times, iso'd 100+ times and ran off a screen 100+ times: Luka Doncic, Jaylen Brown, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard and Brandon Ingram. Ingram has all the stylistic tendencies of a star, but falls short of the efficiency thresholds he would need to develop into a true superstar. For his career, Ingram has turned his 90th%ile shot usage into results that are -1.1% worse than league average.

This is the greatest separator between Brandon Ingram and Kawhi Leonard, why despite having an extremely similar playtype distribution that places them within the same universe, Ingram is several lengths away from reaching the heights of Leonard and his peers. There's just 1 playtype that Leonard was LESS efficient in this past season.The +5 points of relative shot efficiency is the difference between a sustained decade of T10 play in the association and a brief blip as a T50 ish player, and that's before we talk about all of the additional value Kawhi provides his teams as a defender, turnover suppressor, rebounder and gravitational force (quite literally, as Kawhi was 5th in the NBA's new gravity stat, while BI was 21st).

Given his shortcomings as an on-ball creator, BI has been overtasked as a primary scoring option for the majority of his career, though his scoring load isn't going to be much different in Los Angeles than it was in New Orleans and Toronto. However, his similarities with Kawhi means that there may not be a team better suited to put him in the absolute best schematic position to succeed every possession, even if he is decisively not the overwhelming force of nature that Kawhi was for the Clippers. I view Ingram as a more creative and willing passer than Kawhi, which could pay dividends for a team that's trying to feel out Wagler's ceiling. If Ingram can prove that he can remain about as healthy as he did last year, playing 70 games for just the 2nd time in his career, while facilitating his way out of his coring inefficiency, I can envision the Clippers (or another team) wanting to sign up for a longer commitment. Even 40% of Kawhi might just be worth the investment, in the right situation.

5) What are some potential future UFA/RFA targets in the 2027 offseason?

The Clippers are left with zero tradeable firsts and won't make a draft selection with their own pick until 2034, technically guaranteeing the next home-grown Clippers talent might not even be 5 feet tall yet. They do have a 2031 and 2033 pick from the Toronto Raptors but unfortunately Collin Murray-Boyles will be entering his prime by then, so they can't really count on picking in the lottery. LAC will need to be extremely opportunistic over the next 3 years, circling other teams' discard piles, sifting through cast-away prospects for hidden gems that they can buff into potential core pieces.

It's highly unlikely they'll be able to land a superstar in free agency in this CBA environment that's heavily incentivized extensions (only 8 players have signed with a new team in FA for more than $20M since 2022), so they need to be offering big paydays to restricted free agents who are coming off their rookie deals as early as this offseason. The 2027 free agency pool will include players from the 2023 draft class who may not reach an extension with their drafted teams, potentially featuring players such as Scoot Henderson, Dereck Lively II, Anthony Black, Bilal Coulibaly, Jarace Walker, Cason Wallace, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Taylor Hendricks.

If I was running the Clippers, the #1 player on my watchlist would be Dereck Lively II. His injury history is terrifying, but it also doubles as a potential reason why Dallas could be reluctant to pay a pretty penny to retain him. Additionally, the Mavericks drafted Morez Johnson jr. with the 9th pick and retained Moussa Cisse after the Knicks extended him an offer sheet, forming the most cluttered frontcourt in the league. I'd wager that DAL's confidence level in him returning to his 2024 level of play isn't very strong, but I also think the Clippers are going to be hard pressed to find a franchise-level big on their timeline anytime soon for anywhere near this cost. Bilal and Hendricks are worth considering depending on how much confidence the Clips have in their shooting development ability, while Jarace and Jaime would intrigue me as physical secondary creators to place next to Wagler, functioning similar to how Mirkovic and Stojakovic played off of Keaton at Illinois.

The potential veteran free agents may not be worth the contract value, especially players like MPJ, Randle and R.J. Barrett, especially since BI already projects as a cleaner scheme fit. Given how aggressive this franchise has been historically though, it would not surprise me in the slightest to see them chase Karl-Anthony Towns and/or Anthony Davis with reckless abandon if they were to become available. As of right now however, nearly a third of the league is projected to have cap space, which makes it far more realistic that LA's additions will be those RFA we discussed.

Record Prediction

Combined Odds: 29.6 via multiple sportbooks

My Model Projection: 29.1 (25th of 30), -4.65 Net Rating, 4% playoff odds

Floor: 22-60 (-20 wins)

This team had zero business winning 42 games last year, let alone posting a positive net rating. Kawhi put on one of the biggest backpacks ever, pushing 120+ ORTG with lineups that rarely featured even one other positive offensive player. The Clippers were 90th%ile or higher on Spot-Ups, Transition, Isos, Cuts AND Post-Ups. The injuries, lack of a focal point the caliber of Whi & the shaky big man rotation gives this team one of the lowest floors in the league.

Ceiling: 34-58 (-8 wins)

There’s also an argument that Rui and Strus are a massive upgrade in the playfinisher/spacing department from last year, plus they still have DJJ and Dunn as POA defenders that can allow Brook to play effective drop coverage. As long as there aren’t government mandated Bradley Beal let him cook moments, I could see a healthy BI + Garland leading this team to be frisky in the Play-In race early in the year, though I see them taking a calculated step back at the deadline if they can get anything of value for Rui/Strus. Ty Lue has never coached a team to less than 42 wins, will he be able to accept the rebuild?

Overall Grade: C+

Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Clippers this season?

Up Next: Cleveland Cavaliers