30 teams, 30 days: Los Angeles Clippers | 2026 Season Preview

Welcome to my 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions.

Notable Additions: Bradley Beal, John Collins, Brok Lopez, Chris Paul, Yanic Konan Niederhäuser, Kobe Sanders

Notable Subtractions: Norman Powell, Amir Coffey, Drew Eubanks

Depth Chart:

PG: James Harden / Chris Paul / Cam Christie

SG: Bradley Beal / Kris Dunn / Kobe Sanders

SF: Kawhi Leonard / Bogdan Bogdanovic / Nicolas Batum / Jordan Miller

PF: Derrick Jones Jr / John Collins / Patrick Baldwin Jr. / Kobe Brown

C: Ivica Zubac / Brook Lopez / Yanic Konan Niederhäuser

Roster Hierarchy:

Franchise: Kawhi Leonard

Core: James Harden, Ivica Zubac

Key Rotation: Derrick Jones Jr, Bradley Beal, Kris Dunn, John Collins, Brook Lopez, Chris Paul, Bogdan Bogdanovic

Rotation: Nicolas Batum, Cam Christie, Patrick Baldwin Jr.

Development: Kobe Sanders, Jordan Miller, Yanic Konan Niederhäuser

Offseason Overview:

The Clippers ended the regular season as the hottest team in the league, finishing 18-3 over the last 21 games of the year. That stretch was sparked by Kawhi’s return to the lineup in the 2nd half of the season, as the Clips were heavily reliant on Harden/Zubac and their 5th ranked defense to grind out games. LAC had the 6th weakest offense in the league before the Klaw got healthy (-3.6 rORTG) and the 5th best defense (-3.6 rDRTG), then jumped all the way to 8th (+2.9 rORTG) while their defense improved to 2nd over that 48 game stretch (+4.7 rDRTG).

Unfortunately for the Clippers, their 1st round exit to the Nuggets — their 3rd straight year losing in the opening round — was predestined due to their lack of frontcourt depth and tertiary playmaking. It’s already an impossible task to defend Jokic, but the Clips had 1 (one) body that could defend him without a double. That lack of frontcourt size directly led to Gordon’s putback buzzer beater in Game 4, a weakness Lawerence Frank addressed promptly in the offseason.

Pre-Draft Areas of Need:

🥇 Connectivity: 30th in Potential Assists/Game (38.8), 1st in On-Ball Possessions per Game (33.2)

🥈 Transition Defense: 3rd in Half-Court Defense (0.98 PPP allowed), 12th in Transition Defense (1.13 PPP allowed)

🥉 2-Point Conversion: 17th in 2-Point Efficiency (+0.2)

Norm was in the 2nd% in Potential Assists/1M on-ball, Beal averaged double the potential assists. CP3/Beal/Bogdan are all more willing & capable playmakers, the upgrades in connectivity and positional size should boost their conversion rate on 2-point FGA.

Season Outlook:

1. Who’s the 5th starter?

LA stomped teams by 14 points per 100 possessions with Kawhi, Harden and Zu on the floor. The Big 3 shared most of their minutes with Kris Dunn (63%), Norman Powell (62%) and Derrick Jones Jr. (38%) Harden/Norm/Kawhi/DJJ/Zubac was the 3rd best lineup in the league, beating teams by 22 points per 100 possessions.

Head Coach Tyronn Lue confirmed Beal will join the Clips top 3 players in the starting lineup, but feigned amnesia when asked about the 5th starter. John Collins starting could place Kawhi in his optimal role as the 3, he’s played 55% of his minutes at the 4 since he became a Clipper. The Clippers net rating increases by ~ 1 point when he plays SF (9.3 -> 10.2), due to the defense improving by nearly 2 points.

Dunn is the best option as an elite POA defender who forces turnovers and gets LAC into transition, though I imagine Lue takes a matchup-based approach, starting Collins against teams with more frontcourt size.

2. How drastically will the offense have to adjust with Beal/Bogdan swapped in for Norm?

Norman Powell averaged a career-high 26.5 TSA (94th%) on +3.8 rTS% last year, putting up an incredible play-finishing season as a shooter. While he was a consequential piece of the offense, the Clippers shouldn’t see a massive drop off, as LA didn’t rely on him as a self-creator (Norm’s creation TSA 1 increased by just 0.9 relative to his career).

Beal averages ~ 4 more self-created attempts (10.1 creation TSA v Norm’s 6.3) over the last 3Y than Norm on similar efficiency (+1.3 rTS% v Norm’s 1.8). Bogdan has the lowest volume of the 3, but was 3 points more efficient than both Beal and Norm (+4.2 creation rTS%).

Beal and Bogi’s superior scoring craft curling off of handoffs, putting defenders in jail and rising up off the dribble means the playbook shouldn’t change much, if it all. Beal/Bogi will have similar effectiveness attacking out of Chicago/Pistol Actions, pin downs and the occasional flare/double drag screen.

3. Can Brook Lopez/John Collins stabilize the non-Zubac lineups?

The Clippers are +5.8 points BETTER with Zubac on the floor vs off in the last 2 seasons. In the ~ 2900 minutes he was off the floor, the Clippers played small-ball 32% of the time, due to Daniel Theis being their best backup big.

Lopez lost a step defensively last year, struggling to contain drivers once they got past MIL’s perimeter defense, posting his lowest rim DFG% diff2 since 2015 (-5.4%) and barely deterred shots at the rim (-2.1% opp rim frequency). However, Brook barely fouls when he contest shots (6.4% contest foul%, 95th%) and MIL recovered most of his blocks (66th%), he shot > 36% from 3 for the 3rd straight year and he finished at an elite rate (+6.1 finishing rTS%3, 86th%).

Collins BLK numbers are respectable for a PF (80th%), despite a below avg rim contest FG% diff (-1.3%). He’s not capable of being the lone big on the floor against most opposing frontcourts, but LAC will benefit a ton from his size and verticality, particularly finishing possessions on the defensive glass after Zubac rotates to protect the rim.

The beauty is Brook and John are both capable of playing WITH Zu as well, spacing the floor for his rolls while allowing Zu to be a bit more ambitious chasing blocks.

4. Does this team have any chance on defense?

I’m of the belief that one of Dunn/DJJ need to be on the floor for the majority of the game. Harden/Kawhi/Zu should be a strong enough offensive trío to fill that 4th and/or 5th spot with more defensively inclined personnel.

In a playoff setting however, Denver consistently sagged off both of LA’s best defenders. Dunn’s inconsistent 2P scoring (43.8 2P%) allowed DEN to run him off the line with very little consequence, LAC were +4.3 points BETTER with him off the floor in the series. DJJ’s lack of 3P volume (26th%) and inability to make reliable reads OTD (1st% Potential Assists/100, 3rd% Passing Turnovers) led to a similar negative impact.

Dunn only turned the ball over once in that series, but they’ll need him to grow as a more dynamic passer to justify playing him down the stretch. DJJ upping his 3P volume is a clear path to earning more playoff minutes, though LAC will still need to be creative with where they deploy him on offense, potentially playing him in the dunkers spot with Brook/JC on the floor.

5. Which young guy could crack the rotation?

The Clippers are the oldest team in NBA history at 33.2 years old, with the bulk of that age making up their projected 9-10 man rotation. This team has plenty of depth, thus it’s unlikely anyone with a birth a year that starts with 2 has a rotation role to start the season.

Kobe Brown and Jordan Miller have gotten the most opportunity of the returning young guys, unfortunately their pre-NBA lack of 3P shooting (under 33% on 300+ 3PA for both) has continued to saddle them in the NBA.

Patrick Baldwin Jr. and Cam Christie still needs a ton of physical development to have viable frames at their respective position.

An injury to Lopez/Zubac could thrust Niederhäuser into the rotation, he still needs refinement on both ends with his positioning and foul issues. Sanders could carve out a role if there are injuries to the wing room, his frame x passing intersection made him the Clips best young player in preseason. Nonetheless, Clippers fans shouldn’t expect to see any of these guys in the rotation unless there are multiple injuries.

Record Prediction

Total Wins Over/Under: 47.5 via BetMGM

Floor: 44–38 (-6 wins)

This team is much better prepared for Kawhi, Zubac or Harden to miss time than they were last year, but if either of those 3 miss 20+ games, the Clips could see a sharp enough dropoff to relegate them to the top half of the Play-In.

Ceiling: 57-25 (+7 wins)

According to @laclippersfilm, with Harden, Kawhi and Zu healthy, the Clips won at a 58 win pace last season. This era’s emphasis on pace and space could doom the Clips in the playoffs — we haven’t seen a team with an average age of 30+ win a chip since 2013, and it’s been 7 years since a team full of oldheads even made the Finals — but this team is well constructed to be an absolute juggernaut in the regular season.

Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Clippers this season?

Overall Grade: D-

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