Welcome to my 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions.
Notable Additions: Adou Thiero, Jake Laravia, Marcus Smart, DeAndre Ayton
Notable Subtractions: Dorian Finney-Smith, Jordan Goodwin, Markieff Morris
Depth Chart:
PG: Luka Doncic / Nick Smith Jr.
SG: Gabe Vincent / Marcus Smart / Bronny James / Chris Manon
SF: Austin Reaves / Jake Laravia / Dalton Knecht / Adou Thiero
PF: Rui Hachimura / Jarred Vanderbilt / Maxi Kleber / Lebron James
C: Deandre Ayton / Jaxson Hayes / Christian Koloko
Roster Hierarchy:
Franchise: Luka Doncic
Core: Austin Reaves, Lebron James
Key Rotation: Gabe Vincent, Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton, Jake Laravia, Marus Smart, Jarred Vanderbilt
Rotation: Bronny James, Jaxson Hayes, Dalton Knecht, Nick Smith Jr. , Maxi Kleber, Christian Koloko
Development: Chris Manon, Adou Thiero
Cryo Chamber: Lebron James, Adou Thiero
There seems to be some undiscovered magnetic force nestled deep within Los Angeles, an invisible force that draws generational talents to the Lakers franchise whenever their current superstar is nearing their expiration date. 8 months later, the Luka Doncic trade still feels unreal in every sense, and I cannot believe that the Lakers have been blessed once more with an all-time great.
Doncic’s arrival immediately shifted the scope of this team’s roster construction, with Pelinka being tasked with threading the needle between Bron’s potential last season and Luka’s 1st full season in the purple and gold. His moves this season were decisively shrewd and non-committal, leaving the books clear for that gravitational pull to attract the next star who wants to team up with Luka.
🥇 Paint Dominance: Won 80% of their games when they had MORE points in the paint than their opponents, 17th in total such games
🥈 2-Way Talent: Only 2 Players on the roster last year were above average 3PT shooters with a > 2.5 Stock%
🥉 Backline Physicality: 23rd in Rim FG% Allowed (66.9%), 24th in Cut PPP Allowed (1.34), 19th in Postup PPP Allowed (1.02)
Ayton gives Luka a finisher with soft touch, but they will need to be super productive offensively to offset his defensive limitations.
1. Is Reaves a viable long-term backcourt partner with Luka?
Luka played 626 minutes with Reaves last year, with the duo posting a +8.6 net rating with an essentially neutral defensive rating (+0.1 rDRTG). That defense was heavily influenced by the GOAT 3&D wing, Dorian Finney-Smith.
Lineups featuring Luka/Reaves with DFS beat teams by 16.8 points per 100 possessions with a defense that was -4.6 points BETTER than league average. With DFS on the bench, Luka + Reaves units got OUTSCORED by -6.2 points per 100 possessions, with a defense that was -8.6 points WORSE than league average.
These numbers came in a small sample, with lineups that had Jaxson Hayes as an anchor and Lebron on the backline but the overall premise is still valid. Any plans that include a long-term backcourt of Reaves + Luka must also feature 3 decisively above-average to great defenders. The Mavericks deepest playoff runs came in the years they were able to build slightly better than average defenses around Luka, surrounding him with versatile, athletic and lengthy players.
Luka will always need that defensive support even with his increased fitness + positioning boosting his defensive playmaking (career-high 84th% in Steals per 100). It would behoove LA to fully evaluate the viability of this pairing long-term, considering Reaves’ extension is looming in the coming offseason.
2. What growth does Ayton need to show to be considered a core piece?
As mentioned above, any long-term piece next to Luka must be at least somewhat respectable on defense. For Ayton’s entire career, his teams have been 2 points BETTER defensively with him off the floor. In the Suns most competitive years (21-22), the Suns had a -1.6 rDRTG with him on the floor, improving by 4.8 points to -6.4 with him OFF.
His reputation as a low-motor player is evidenced by his teams’ performing better on the glass with him off the floor (+1.9 REB%), ranking in the 12th% in STOP% in the last 3 years and 20th% in rim FGA contested. I fully expect him to excel offensively next to Luka, he’s one of the most gifted finishers in the game, shooting above 74% at the rim every (qualified) year of his career.
However, asking one of the most lethargic bigs in the league to anchor a Luka/Reaves backcourt could be disastrous. LA was smart to sign him to a 2Y contract, as he was easily the best big available on that contract, but he won’t be in LA long if he lets any offensive role inconsistency bleed over to his defensive effort.
3. How should the Lakers handle Bron & Luka’s conflicting timelines?
The Lakers have seen a ton of roster turnover year to year under Pelinka, as he constantly tinkered around AD and Bron. The 2026 Lakers see their highest return rate (11 of 17 rostered players) in a decade, with the 2026 books relatively clean.
Luka, Bronny, Thiero, Jake and Vando are the only Lakers penciled in for next year, with player options for Reaves, Ayton & Smart and a team option for Knecht.
Lebron’s boxscore numbers are phenomenal, putting up 24.4/7.8/8.2 on +2.7 rTS% (83rd%). The advanced metrics point to slippage in impact however, as 2025 was the first year in his 22-year career where his team was WORSE with him on the floor vs off (-6.9 on/off differential, 18th%). Every all-in one metric (EPM, RAPTOR, LEBRON, RAPM,etc.) are in agreement that Bron is closer to the 30th-40th best player in the league than his decades long reign as a Top 3 player.
Bron has lost a step defensively as he’s aged, he needs a stronger defensive context to not be a flat-out liability. It would benefit both sides to find a trade this season, as Bron’s contract expires this season, considering the Lakers contention window extended far beyond Lebron’s range once they stole Luka.
4. Can Marcus Smart recapture his Celtics impact?
Smart has remained one of the better defensive playmakers in the league despite playing in suboptimal defensive contexts in the least few years.
He has consistently had a T30 influence on opponents TOV%, forcing 1.8 TOV per 100 (95th%). Smart played 3000 playoff minutes from 2017-2023, with a +3.9 on/off differential. Marcus played the 3rd highest MPG during BOS’ 2022 Finals run, earning those minutes after taking drastic steps forward as a shooter. His impact wasn’t as loud in his last 2 runs, as his extremely high TO rate (15th%) and overall variability drew a stark contrast to Derrick White & Malcolm Brogdon.
Smart’s playstyle is by nature variable, as his constant motor to make things happen sometimes gets him (and his team) into rough situations. I expect his defense to be a real needle mover for LA, but #LakerNation will have to learn to tolerate some of his mishaps.
5. Is there an optimal defensive scheme for this unit?
The Lakers switched on ball screens more than any team last year, according to @Tim_NBA. This constant passing off of assignments led to LA allowing the 6th highest PPP on cuts and the 9th most to the rollman, though they were very strong defensively vs PNR ballhandlers and off-ball screening actions.
A heavy switching scheme requires clear communication, constant rotations and a ton of effort from every player on the floor. Asking Luka and Bron to play within this type of scheme introduces 2 points of failure that the Lakers should avoid as much as possible. LA HAD to switch so frequently last year because they had no backline defense to fall back on while lacking the screen navigation to keep Davis in drop.
Ayton can wax and wane defensively, but he’s a much better drop coverage defender positionally than Hayes, plus Gabe/Smart are strong screen navigators. A 60/20/20 split of drop/hedge/switch makes sense to me, reserving the switching for clutch scenarios or with Vando at center.
Record Prediction
Total Wins Over/Under: 47.5 via BetMGM
Floor: 37–45 (-13 wins)
LA’s floor would be 5-7 wins higher for me if they still had DFS, that’s how important reliable 2-way production is for this roster. A rough defensive season from Ayton and inconsistent shooting from Smart/Vando with Bron missing time could sink the Lakers early.
Ceiling: 48-34 (-2 wins)
Conversely, Luka/Reaves/Bron is one of the strongest offensive trios in the sport. Ayton is virtually certain to be a seamless 4th option, Laravia + Smart both have encouraging indicators as the perfect role players to fill out the roster.
Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Clippers this season?
Overall Grade: B
Up Next: Detroit Pistons
About the author
I’m a lifelong basketball enthusiast who blends film study and advanced analytics in my independent coverage of basketball and the NBA Draft across Tiktok, Twitter, Youtube, Substack and Instagram. I’ve also covered the Hawks for ~2 years as an accredited digital journalist for Afro News, and I am a member of the Atlanta Hawks’ Creators Collective.
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