30 teams, 30 days: Miami Heat | 2026 Season Preview

Welcome to my 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions.

Notable Additions: Norman Powell, Kasparas Jakučionis, Simone Fontecchio

Notable Subtractions: Haywood Highsmith, Kyle Anderson, Kevin Love, Duncan Robinson

Depth Chart:

PG: Davion Mitchell / Kasparas Jakučionis / Terry Rozier

SG: Norman Powell / Dru Smith / Myron Gardner / Tyler Herro

SF: Andrew Wiggins / Jaime Jaquez Jr / Pelle Larsson / Keshad Johnson

PF: Nikola Jovic / Simone Fontecchio / Precious Achiuwa

C: Bam Adebayo / Kel’el Ware / Vladislav Goldin

Roster Hierarchy:

Franchise: Bam Adebayo

Core: Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware

Key Rotation: Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Norman Powell, Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez Jr

Rotation: Kasparas Jakučionis, Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, Precious Achiuwa, Terry Rozier, Dru Smith

Development: Myron Gardner, Keshad Johnson, Vladislav Goldin

Offseason Overview:

You can find traces of #HeatCulture in every decision Miami made from the deadline on, refusing to reset their roster with younger pieces in the Butler trade, pushing their way to the play-in despite their 1st round pick conveying to OKC if they made the playoffs and then acquiring Norman Powell AND retaining Andrew Wiggins this offseason.

This is the Heat way, stubbornly resisting the need to rebuild in favor of grinding season after season, betting on their ability to develop fringe NBA talent instead of chasing lottery picks. It’s an approach that can work when the glitz and glamor of Vice City draws the wandering eye of disgruntled superstars, but that method hasn’t quite happened for the Heat as of late, missing out on several marquee free agents and trades — reportedly because of their unwillingness to part with what little young talent they do have on the roster. The beginning of the 2025-2026 season finds Miami in an all-too familiar position, as a roster that lacks top-end talent but will somehow find a way to overachieve.

Pre-Draft Areas of Need:

🥇 Quality 3PA Creation: 12th in 3PAr (42.9%), 29th in 3PT Shot Quality

🥈 Rim Protection: 4th in Opponent Rim FGA/G (24.5), 29th in Opponent Rim% (67.8%)

🥉 Extra Possession Generation: 28th in Stocks/G (11.9), 25th in Loose Balls Recovered per 100 (3.9), 27th in Oreb% (27th)

MIA managed their own turnovers well (7th in TOV%) but didn’t acquire anyone that can help them boost their ability to create more poss on the glass and on defense.

Season Outlook:

1. Will Spo run double-big looks more frequently?

Spoelstra has mentioned that “all things are on the table regarding the starting lineup”, which should worry Heat fans, because the only thing that should be on the table is starting Bam next to Ware. Only 2 of MIA’s top 10 most frequent lineups last season featured a double big frontcourt, and Miami went 8-8 with a -2.1 differential in the 16 game period after Jimmy left. Ware didn’t enter the starting lineup until the 42nd game of the season, with his presence next to Bam assisting the Heat in closing the season with a neutral point differential.

Mitchell/Herro/Wiggins/Adebayo/Ware was their best NON Jimmy Butler lineup (+0.3), but MIA played 1995 minutes with Bam WITHOUT Ware (-3 rORTG, -1.9 rDRTG) and just 526 minutes of their best combo, Bam + Ware (+1.2 rORTG, -3.7 rDRTG). With Ware’s offensive growth, MIA is at their best with both bigs on the floor together.

2. Can Norm Powell carry over his performance from last year?

It’s exceedingly rare to see a player put up the best season of their career in their 10th year in the league, but Norman Powell did just that as a spry 31-year old. Powell stepped into a massive usage gap with Kawhi missing the majority of the season, averaging a career 26.5 True Shot Attempts (FGA + FTA per 100 possessions) on an elite +3.8 rTS%. The Clippers offensive context with Zubac as an elite screener and finisher alongside Harden’s playmaking provided the perfect infrastructure for Norm to thrive. He responded with career years as a handoff (11th in Points Over Expectation), Transition (16th), Off Screen (13th) and PNR Ball Handler (19th) scorer.

While Norm’s overall role was scaled up, his creation TSA increased by just 0.9 relative to his career, indicating his shot volume was still mostly out of finishing and shooting playtypes. Essentially, Powell had an incredible play-finishing season, which could lead to some drops in effectiveness if MIA needs him to create for himself at a higher rate. MIA can somewhat replicate Zubac’s handoff and screening ability by running offense through Bam, but the overall offensive context is still far less conducive than it was in LAC.

3. How can Miami improve on their historic tendency to choke big leads?

Miami made history in all the worst ways last year, losing 22 times after leading by double-digits, tied for the most by any team since 1996. They also lost 15 games when leading after the 3rd quarter, tied for the most by any team in the last 41 years! That tendency to blow games led Miami to finish 16-25 in clutch games the 25th worst clutch win% in the league.

The Heat offense was both predictable and ineffective down the stretch, finishing 6th in Clutch 3PAr and 30th in Clutch FTA Rate (27.7%), indicating an inability to generate easy offense down the stretch, which was reflected in the league’s worst clutch offensive rating (96.3). Norm provides a needed overall scoring boost, but MIA will need to ramp up their DHO volume (11th in Handoff frequency, 5.5% of possessions) to capitalize on their best offensive playtype (2nd in PPP, 1.03).

4. Will Pelle Larsson, Jaime Jaquez Jr and/or Kasparas Jakučionis join Jovic and Ware in the long-term young core?

A year ago, Jaime Jaquez Jr. was widely considered to be a first-round steal and potential long-term contributor after a relatively solid rookie year. Jaime shot 65% at the rim (60th%) with a +3.3 finishing rTS% (83rd%) in his rookie year, but his overall finishing ability regressed as a sophomore, falling to -5.9 rTS% (32nd%) and 61.3 rim FG% (34th%). The absence of Butler’s gravity and shot creation ability is a certainly a big factor here, but MIA’s offensive situation only exacerbates Jaime’s lack of verticality.

He also remained one of the least willing shooters in the league (just 4.3 3PA/100, 3rd%) and turned the ball over at a higher rate (6.3 scoring TOV% -> 10.5 scoring TOV%). JJJ would benefit massively from a 3PA volume increase as the driving lanes aren’t going to get much less crowded. Pelle shares that same bashfulness behind the 3P line (6.1 per 100, 31st%), but doesn’t quite have Jaime’s craft despite being a better athlete. Larsson is going to have to shoot it to be rotation viable, which should be relatively realistic as he shot 81.2% from the FT line and 39.6% from the 3P line on over 300 attempts.

Kasparas brings playmaking ability this roster desperately needs, generating 2.8 rim assists per 40 mins (98th%) in his lone college season at Illinois. Jaku’s frame and finishing ability could make him viable off the ball as well, which could allow MIA to play him next to Herro/Powell in double big lineups. If Kasparas can prove he can reduce his turnovers and be more impactful on defense with less usage, he’ll be a rotation player very quickly.

5. Will Pat Riley be able to squeeze anything out of Terry’s contract?

Terry Rozier has inherited the dubious title of worst contract in the league following Beal’s buyout. Terry made ~ $26M dollars last year, the equivalent of 17.73% of the cap and was MIA’s 3rd most expensive player heading into the season. Rozier was their worst player according to EPM (-3.3, 15th%) with MIA being 8.3 points WORSE with him on the floor vs off. His -4.49 Wins Above Contract is one of the least valuable contracts in modern NBA history among ballhandlers that made 10+% of the cap

Thankfully, his contract is up at the end of the season, but it may be worth attaching some 2nds to get back a mildly interesting prospect before the deadline.

Record Prediction

Total Wins Over/Under: 37.5 via BetMGM

Floor: 31–51 (-6 wins)

Spo brought Ware off the bench in the 1st 3 games of the preseason, a trend that if continued into the regular season, would severely hamper the Heat. Their normally staunch defense couldn’t protect the rim last year, and units led by Bam just couldn’t score on offense, if their stretch 5 wasn’t in the game. Add in some continued stagnation from the younger guys and this team could be a rough watch.

Ceiling: 42–30 (+5 wins)

Spo brought Ware off the bench in the 1st 3 games of the preseason, a trend that if continued into the regular season, would severely hamper the Heat. Their normally staunch defense couldn’t protect the rim last year, and units led by Bam just couldn’t score on offense, if their stretch 5 wasn’t in the game. Add in some continued stagnation from the younger guys and this team could be a rough watch.

Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Heat this season?

Overall Grade: C+

Up Next: Golden State Warriors