30 teams, 30 days: Milwaukee Bucks | 2027 Season Preview

Welcome to the 4th edition of my annual 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions. For the first time, these articles will be exclusively posted on the Hardwood Collective and are paired with video deep-dives over on my Youtube and full-length podcast episodes over on The Fifth Factor!

Notable Additions: Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Brayden Burries, Nate Ament, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, Caris LeVert, Gary Trent Jr. (re-signed), Ousmane Dieng (re-signed), Bogoljub Markovic, Pete Nance (re-signed), Kam Jones, John Butler, Jake Stephens

Draft Pick Comps & Strengths + Weaknesses

#10: Brayden Burries
I think there's some interesting synergy with a havoc creating guard like Rollins and wonder how much of his transition game persists in an environment that really doesn't have much creation. He's another super malleable guy who had a case as the best player ^[1]on one of the most dominant teams we’ve ever seen in CBB from a net rating perspective. A big plus in his projection was his ablility to sustain his efficiency in the ~ 500 poss he played without Bradley as the default lead guard, spiked his assist rate alongside an uptick in turnovers.

#13: Nate Ament

Ament shot poorly at Tennessee but his touch is definitely there, the weak handle and lack of contact balance is moreso why he struggled so badly as a finisher. His size enables him able to get a shot off even when he stumbles, which is how he had one of the lowest turnover rates in the country among high-volume iso players (8.2%, 12th out of 54). The height also lets him short his curls out of floppy/pindowns to flash to the rim. Reportedly extremely driven with strong worth ethic.

Notable Subtractions: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, Taurean Prince, Gary Harris, Andre Jackson Jr., Cole Anthony, Amir Coffey, Alex Antetokounmpo, Cam Thomas, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Mark Sears, Rafael Castro

Depth Chart + Roster Hierarchy

Franchise — none

Core — Brayden Burries, Nate Ament

Key Rotation — Tyler Herro, Myles Turner, A.J. Green, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Ryan Rollins, Kevin Porter Jr.

Rotation — Kyle Kuzma, Gary Trent Jr., Ousmane Dieng, Jericho Sims, Kasparas Jakucionis, Pete Nance, Caris Levert

Development — Bogoljub Markovic, Kam Jones, Cormac Ryan

Cap Sheet

Offseason Overview:

The dynamic between basketball superstars and their franchises is unlike any other major sport. Of course, a huge part of this is the incomparable amount of influence the game's greatest can exert on the court, but it's also a function of how much smaller basketball rosters are. There's more intimacy in training & development, more familiarity in contract discussions and more opportunity to build meaningful relationships with players. This leads to a devotion that can at its' strongest, feel desperately delusional, with organizations going to unbelievable lengths to placate their franchise cornerstones. No team in recent memory has exhibited this more than the Milwaukee Bucks, who exhausted almost every resource possible to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo a Buck for life.

And why wouldn't they? Superstars mean more in the NBA yes, but they are everything when they are homegrown, when they were discovered as a hidden gem on the fringes of the draft lottery and when that team quite literally built them from the ground up. The Bucks' development of Giannis into a 2-time MVP who delivered a championship in one of the most iconic closeout games ever is a legendary story and why they were receptive to his needs. They iterated tirelessly around him, starting with a bunch of other slight open court athletes, then brought in Brook Lopez to establish the backbone of their defense, swapped out Eric Bledsoe for Jrue Holiday and the rest was history. As the championship glory faded, Giannis' demands brought Damian Lillard to Cream City and after a tragic injury, Milwaukee made the massive financial decision to waive & stretch his deal to fit in Myles Turner as a replacement for Brook Lopez.

It ultimately wasn't enough. Giannis wasn't happy and the Bucks could no longer feasibly give him what he wanted, a chance to continue to compete. A separation was what was best for both parties, freeing Antetokounmpo to chase another ring as a member of the Heat, leaving MIL with a hodgepodge of young guys, no outright tradable 1sts until 2031 and a cap sheet that'll bear the proof of their undying commitment of their guy until 2030.

Pre-Draft Areas of Need:

🥇 Possession Influence: -6.7 net possession value (oREB impact + dREB impact + oTov impact + dTov impact) 30th last year and 8th worst since 2002

Partially Addressed: Herro + Ware are positive oTOV & oREB influence players respectively, Burries & Ament were 30th%ile A:TO relative to league average & a bit underwhelming on the offensive glass but solid on defensive glass

🥈 Rim Pressure:

Giannis 14.2 Rim FGA/75 is 9.1 higher than the 2nd highest Buck, by far biggest discrepancy in the league, only 3 Bucks besides Giannis were above LA in FTA rate, 6 were below 30th%ile, last in the league in paint touches per game

Addressed: JJJ (47.9% rim rate) + Ware would immediately be the highest rim volume non-Giannis bucks last year, Burries 70th%ile historically Rim Rate (39%), Ament slightly above average

🥉 Rim Protection:

69.5% rim FG% allowed (26th), 1st time since 2009 a Bucks team was bottom 10 in opponent rim FG%

Partially Addressed: with Ware replacing Portis & Ament’s weakside rim pro

Season Outlook:

1) Which current Buck is the best backcourt pairing with Brayden Burries?

This team is on the hunt for their next building blocks and they need to be shrewd with the players they opt to surround Burries with. That's not to suggest he is a particularly difficult player to accommodate or build around, in fact he's likely to be extremely easy to place within lineups. I'm mainly speaking to the amount of guards on this roster they need to evaluate him with, especially since 2 of the guards will be either expiring/looking for a new deal. Milwaukee also will not have control over their firsts until 2031, so it's a must that they foster the best environment for their 2026 draft class.

Ryan Rollins has a player option for the 2027-2028 season, that he is 100% guaranteed to decline as he has played his way into being worth far more than the 4% of the cap he's currently slated to make. It would behoove Milwaukee to sign him to an extension, it's a dangerous game to allow a player on his trajectory to reach UFA, especially with how starved teams will be for young talent. It would be nice to get a few games to validate his fit next to Burries, though they have all the makings of being a well-fitting backcourt. MIL should also tinker with KPJ and Kasparas next to Burries, though Kasp should be considered more seriously among these two due to KPJ's age and playstyle (more on that a bit later).^[2]

Rollins exhibited a rarely found degree of duality last year, finishing the season as one of 11 players to run 500+ PNRs last year while also ranking as the 10th best spot-up shooter in the league. This versatility is even more compelling considering how Burries also demonstrated an ability to toggle on and off ball at Arizona. They both displayed a willingness to let pull-up 3s fly out of PNR ^[3], with each of them posting a 3PAr out of on-ball screens north of .30. At 6'3 with a +7 wingspan, Ryan brings length in juxtaposition with Burries' bulk (90th%ile weight at his position), forming a formidably sized backcourt duo that should hold their own defensively. This manifests offensively as well, with Burries maintaining a higher rim (.42) and free-throw rate thanks to his mass, while Ryan's scoring process is a good bit more craft and touched based, which shows up in his lower rim rate and higher tendency to shoot floaters or pull-up middies.

Having inherent diversity in a starting backcourt is a massive plus, forcing defenses into conflict more often since differing playstyles require different flavors of defenders. I can already envision their guard to guard actions being potent in the near future, though while it's a great strength to have a versatile backcourt, a team can only stack so many complementary skilslets without having a focal point to be complemented. I don't particularly see either one of them becoming a lead creator, so if they wind-up becoming the long-term backcourt then I believe that that skill will need to come from the wing or big position.

2) Is there any way to recoup some of the value lost in the Myles Turner acquisition, considering the additional cost of waiving & stretching Dame?

When we consider that the Myles Turner acquisition added an extra $22.5M on the Bucks' books until 2030 since they committed the largest waive & stretch in NBA history to clear enough space to sign Turner, there's simply no way that they can ever recoup the total value of this decision. Turner had his worst scoring season of his career, mainly due to just how rough of a season he had as a 2P scorer. He got blocked at the highest rate of his career at the rim (15%) and on non-rim paint FGA attempts (13.1%). MIL didn't make his life any easier, giving him to the lowest post-up touch frequency of his career and asking him to drive from the perimeter at a career-high rate.

Defensively, Turner was stretched thin on a team that so rarely had Giannis as an enforcer on the weakside, which led to Doc playing him at the level earlier in the season. The Bucks' plethora of low-activity, low-physicality wings made this far from viable, particularly since Myles already isn't the best lateral mover. By the end of the season, MIL had seemingly thrown in int he white towel and were just banking on shot variance by keeping Myles in an extremely deep drop vs PNRs.

Stretch bigs still have value in this league and Turner should be a great release valve for these young guards in pick & pop scenarios and swing passes above the break. Even so, Myles was brought in specifically to play with Giannis and in his absence, there's no feasible path to MIL justifying the cost. They can't do anything to fix it, but maybe a different style of ball under Jenkins could interest another team just enough to cough up a first.

3) Of the 5 players (Kasp, Herro, Jaime, Ware + Ament w/ the 13th pick) Milwaukee received for their franchise icon, which one (if any) profiles as the heir to the throne?

Kel'el Ware would be my personal pick to reach the highest ceiling among these 5, as I believe he was among the most miscast players in the league. In college, a Kel'el post touch was worth 1.1 PPP, he had a .50 FTR in the post and was effective as a roll man. MIA never really gave him a steady diet in the post, so once they also removed heavy PNR usage, his 2P scoring dipped considerably as he was relegated to spot-ups and the occasional pick & pop. Through it all, he became one of the highest 3P volume bigs in the league, made meaningful strides as a FT shooter and attempted 43% of his FGA from the 3-point line in transition. ^[4]

Ware was sleepwalking into a T10 rebounder in the league due to his 99th% frame + athleticism at his size, even with the absolute disgust the Heat coaching staff felt watching his low motor. The reality is that Kel'el was NEVER going to be a garbage man hustle big and the only way for Miami to maximize him was to let him be the unicorn-esque talent he is at his size. I'm not saying he's Kristaps Porzingis, but why not try and use him that way, especially for a team in Milwaukee's situation. He put too much on tape as a post-up scorer with outlier coordination and touch to not at least attempt this experiment.

Before Jan 5th, 2025, Kasparas Jakučionis was widely regarded as a T5ish caliber player in the 2025 draft class. He was drilling jumpers off the dribble to the tune of a blistering 64 eFG%, shooting 65% at the rim and scoring above 1 PPP out of Iso's/Spot-Ups/Handoffs AND Transition with a .40 FTR out of PNR. Simply put, Kasp was unstoppable, appearing like he was going to be an extremely crafty offensive engine at the next level.

After Jan 5th, Jakučionis shot just 32.5 eFG% off the dribble and 27% on jumpers overall. The Big Ten starts their conference play earlier than their counterparts and Kasp had played well vs Arkansas, Tennessee and Missouri before this point, so it wasn't as if the competition suddenly got stiffer. That fateful day, Kasparas had a forearm injury that cost him 2 games AND his jumper, and he never quite found it for the rest of the season. He ended up in Miami where he shot 43% from 3 as a rookie, but continued to struggle off the dribble, making just 4 of his 30 pull-up jumpers. MIA's whirling "Wheel" offense did away with traditional screening actions, which neutered his ability to consistently create separation against NBA quality defenders. With his pedigree as a 90% FT shooter, Kasp is a good bet to improve if MIL allows him to continue to tap into his on-ball creativity.

JJJ and Herro are known commodities at this point in my opinion, though I do see Jaime continuing to be effective as a tertiary ballhandler since Milwaukee could feasibly play lineups with 4 handlers. I'm worried Ament is too far behind with his handle and physicality to see him as anything beyond complementary, but this is the franchise that completely remade Giannis' frame^[5]. I could see Nate being valued around the league considering his pedigree and positional size, which could give them an additional pivot point.

4) MIL is carrying 5 expiring deals (Herro, Caris, KPJ, Sims, Kuzma) this season, which vet could prove to be most attractive at the deadline?

We're going to discuss these players in order of least to most tradable:

Kyle Kuzma: Not a chance in hell.

Kuzma had the highest PNR TO% of any player in the entire league last year. His turnovers were so laughably horrific that I'm not going to write any more about them and instead direct you to watch the video component of this series to see them for yourself. He was beyond detrimental and is completely and utterly untradable in a league that no longer values tank commanders.

Caris: Eh.

Levert's 2P scoring completely fell off a cliff last year, mainly due to getting the highest rate of his paint FGA blocked in his career. He was pretty effective in Atlanta, so we'll have to see how much of this was due to operating in DET's cramped context. He was by far their most detrimental player however and as a guy whose biggest value is on offense, I think it'll be hard to sell him to a team considering it's unlikely that the offense is that much better playing on such a young team.

Sims: I could see it.

Jericho Sims was the 3rd most efficient roller in the league last year, scoring 1.5 PPP and ranking 4th in POE. He's not the only low-volume big to be this efficient^[6] but had by far the worst guard play of any high-efficicency roller last year. He dunked 62% of his rim attempts and even flashed some juice off the dribble, could he be a discount version of Jalen Duren?^[7]

KPJ: I could see it.

Kevin Porter Jr. had the best defensive season of his career last year, finally using his frame to force turnovers at one of the highest rates in the league. KPJ ranked in the 95th%ile in Stop% and has really wingified his game on both ends. He's still elite out of spot-up situations but he also still has a tendency to dribble the air out of the ball every chance he gets. This sours the appeal for a contending roster who would otherwise find some value in his skillset, though a team that can effectively compartmentalize his role could add a steal at the deadline.

Tyler Herro: Pretty much guaranteed.

Herro, off the virtue of being on the largest contract for salary matching purposes, is one of the most anticipated pieces to be traded at the deadline. He could provide multiple teams the golden ticket to duck an apron/the luxury tax or provide an injection of ballhandling and pull-up shooting for a team like Detroit.

5) How does Taylor Jenkins’ philosophy align with the roster in its’ current state?

Taylor Jenkins has been here before. Jenkins began his career in Memphis at the genesis of their rebuild, just months after franchise icons Mike Conley and Marc Gasol were moved to clear a runway for their burgeoning young core. His familiarity with this situation and perhaps even more importantly, the speed that he brought the upstart Grizzlies to competence, is why he was hired.

During his tenure, Memphis was always a T5 transition frequency team. They crashed the offensive glass heavily in the halfcourt and generally seemed comfortable giving up non-corner 3s if it meant keeping the ball out the middle of the floor. The personnel will vary differently from the helio guard and mammoth centers he had in Memphis, but I am anticipating most of these elements to persist in his version of the Bucks.

The Grizzlies weren't a heavy post-up volume team until Edey arrived and Jenkins tended to keep the playmaking centralized to his guards, but as time went on and Ja became less and less available, Jenkins didn't hesitate to put the ball into the hands of his bigs. This was more of a necessity than an adaptation in my opinion, but the willingness to allow Jaren to assume a ton of usage does make me wonder if he'll allow Kel'el to cook. He's not afraid to utilize his depth, being 1 of just 6 coaches to play 11 guys 1000+ minutes in the 2023 season and was a big fan of the Konchar/Vince Williams mold type of players, so I can see him turning to that archetype over the Bucks' versions of GG Jackson/Jake Laravia.

Record Prediction

Combined Odds: 25.8 via multiple sportbooks

My Model Projection: 36.5 (20th of 30), -1.44 Net Rating, 16% playoff odds

Floor: 27-55 (-5 wins)

The only thing that kept Milwaukee from being the worst team in the league was Giannis’ presence and knocking down pretty much every shot they took. This projects as another rough year for them in terms of the possession battle, but I don’t see them being efficient enough to prevent free-falling down the standings. Taylor Jenkins has a tall task to set this team’s floor.

Ceiling: 37-45 (+5 wins)
I think this is one of the lowest ceiling teams in the league, considering just how detrimental their veteran play is. The only way I see MIL outperforming my projections would be by turning at least two of Kuz/GTJ/Caris/Turner, etc. into stronger players at the deadline, which doesn’t feel very likely.

Overall Grade: B-, an admirable pivot after trading away one of the greatest players in franchise history.

Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Bucks this season?

Up Next: Denver Nuggets