30 teams, 30 days: Milwaukee Bucks | 2026 Season Preview

Welcome to my 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions.

Notable Additions: Myles Turner, Cole Anthony, Gary Harris, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Alex Antetokounmpo

Notable Subtractions: Damian Lillard, Pat Connaughton, Brook Lopez

Depth Chart:

PG: Kevin Porter Jr. / Cole Anthony / Mark Sears

SG: AJ Green / Ryan Rollins / Gary Harris

SF: Taurean Prince / Gary Trent Jr. / Andre Jackson Jr. / Thanasis Antetokounmpo / ​​Alex Antetokounmpo

PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo / Kyle Kuzma / Tyler Smith / Pete Nance

C: Myles Turner / Bobby Portis / Jericho Sims

Roster Hierarchy:

Franchise: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Core: Myles Turner

Key Rotation: AJ Green, Taurean Prince, Ryan Rollins, Gary Trent Jr., Kyle Kuzma, Bobby Portis, Kevin Porter Jr.

Rotation: Cole Anthony, Jericho Sims, Tyler Smith, Andre Jackson Jr., Gary Harris, Thanasis Antetokounmpo

Development: Mark Sears, Pete Nance, Alex Antetokounmpo

Offseason Overview:

NBA teams generally go to great lengths to appease their franchise cornerstones, but nobody does it like Jon Horst and the Milwaukee Bucks. Whether it’s mortgaging their future, trading away players beloved by fans or rostering members of the Antetokounmpo family who aren’t quite rotation level NBA players, Milwaukee has almost always answered the call. This offseason has been typified by their biggest pledge of allegiance to Giannis yet, sacrificing their long-term financial flexibility while signing TWO of Giannis’ brothers in a couple months span.

Pre-Draft Areas of Need:

🥇 Offensive Rebounding: 30th in OREB (21.6%)

🥈 Transition Play: 74.3% Win Rate when they have more Fastbreak Points than their opponent (6th), 25th in Transition Frequency (14%) — Partially Addressed: Roster is more athletic overall, should be able to get out and run

🥉 Wing Help: 6th Worst Wing Room in the league (-1.82 average EPM1)

The roster is more athletic overall, which should improve MIL’s ability to get out and run, but this still one of the bleakest wing rooms in the association.

Season Outlook:

1. Is Myles Turner an upgrade over Brook Lopez?

Brook and Myles ended their tenure with their respective franchises with the lowest approval rating of their careers among their fanbase. Lopez lost a step defensively, struggling to contain drivers once they got past MIL’s perimeter defense, posting his lowest rim DFG% diff since 2015 (-5.4%) while barely deterring opponent’s FGA @ the rim (-2.1% opp rim frequency).

Turner’s effectiveness tailed off once Indy made the ECF, averaging just 3.8 RPG, while shooting 13/40 from 3 with a 0.7 AST/TO ratio. This poorly-timed slump led to Indy being -3.4 points WORSE per 100 possessions with him on the floor during the most consequential stretch in their history. Many players would dropoff against that OKC defense, but Turner’s struggles were foreshadowed in his regular season profile. He graded out as a below average finisher among centers (56.1 2P%, 26th% & a +0.4 finishing rTS%, 60%) with an extremely high passing TO% (22.2%, 7th%) .

Myles and Brook appear to be similar caliber rim protectors at first glance, virtually mirroring each other’s contest volume (12.8 rim contests/100 v 12.3), deterrence (-2.8% v -3.3%) and opp rim FG% influence (-6.5% v -8.9%). However, Brook barely fouled (6.4% contest foul%, 95th%) and MIL recovered most of his blocks (66th%), a stark contrast to Myles’ 10% foul rate (60th%) and 55% block recovery rate. MIL will feel that value loss, especially because Brook had a massive positive impact on MIL’s DREB% despite not snagging a ton himself (+4.4% in 5 years), while Myles had a neutral impact.

Moving on from Brook as the starter was the right move, especially since the playoff data asserts that Brook’s lack of mobility on the perimeter got them killed from the 3P line — MIL’s opponents shot SIX whole points better from 3 with him on the court vs off (38.5% -> 32.5%). This roster simply doesn’t has the POA defenders to make his deep drop viable BUT Milwaukee will sorely miss his defensive abilities and finishing skillset if Turner can’t outperform him drastically as a 3P shooter.

2. Which guard will be the most conducive pairing with Giannis?

The Bucks only chance at being competitive this year is fully maximizing Giannis. While he’s at his absolute apex as a self-creator, Giannis still needs conducive ballhandling and shooting around him to get him to his spots and allow him to dominate as a finisher.

MIL’s guard room offers 3 different flavors of potential guard pairings. KPJ is the best self-creator, in the tiny sample he played with Giannis (254 minutes), the Bucks outscored teams by 18.8 points per 100 possessions. That’s an awesome number (take it with a huge grain of salt due to small sample) that’s boosted by that duo playing 42% of their minutes with the 2nd type of guard on this roster, AJ Green and Gary Trent Jr.

Green (.85% 3PAr) and Trent Jr (.66 3PAr) are the designated high 3P% spacers that open the middle of the floor for Giannis better than anyone. Green in particular was a potent combo with Giannis, shooting 52% on relocation 3s plus the Bucks generated 1.28 points per possession when he screened for Giannis (per @ALLCITY_NBA).

But it’s the 3rd type of guard, the perpetually active Ryan Rollins, that profiles as the best pairing with Giannis. Rollins is one of the more prolific defensive playmakers in the league: 1 of 10 players with a > 2.5 STL% and 1.9 BLK% with a 87th% deflections/75 (per @freewave3). His blend of plus efficiency (+2.4 rTS%), defensive playmaking (3.3 Stop%, 81st%) and supplementary playmaking (6.1 Assists/100 with a 1.9 AST/TO) makes him the ideal complementary guard.

3. How much time will Giannis spend at the 5?

Giannis has played 84% of his minutes at PF in the last 4 years (~ 9,300 minutes), per Cleaning the Glass. With Giannis at the 4, the Bucks posted a +8.2 Net Rating with a 120 ORTG (equivalent of a top 5 offense), 111.8 DRTG (top 5 defense), 25.5 OREB% (~ 20th) and a 20.7% FT Rate (~ 17th).

With Giannis at the 5, the Bucks posted a +6.1 Net Rating with a 119 ORTG (equivalent of a top 5 offense), 113.3 DRTG (top 10 defense), 21.3 OREB% (~ 30th) and a 29% FT Rate (~ 1st). These shifts indicate the rebounding and anchoring value of deploying a big next to Giannis (as well as MIL’s lack of a 4 who can serve as a backline defender), and how Giannis is maximized offensively as the 5, evidenced by the sky-high FT rate.

He played roughly 50% of his minutes without Brook over that stretch, maintaining his ridiculous offense impact with slight increases in PTS/75 (31.6 -> 32.6), FTA (11.0 -> 12.4) and overall TS% (62.2% -> 63.5%).

This current roster will demand Giannis to monopolize touches even more than he did last year (career-high in Creation TSA2 and On-Ball%3).

4. Who’s the last roster cut?

Chris Livingston was waived yesterday after being one of the few Bucks to not appear in their last preseason game. Doc has spoken definitively about Amir Coffey’s role among the wing group, so he’s likely a lock to make the roster. MIL will have to decide whether they’re willing to cut their 2024 early 2nd round pick, Tyler Smith, to retain Andre Jackson Jr.

A fully realized Tyler Smith would be the ideal 4 to play next to Giannis at the 5, as a stretch 4 that displayed weakside rim protection ability in the 68 total games he played in the G-League over the last 2 years (shot 34.7% on 6 3PA per 36 mins with a 3.5 BLK%). Unfortunately, he likely isn’t ready to contribute this season, which may lead MIL to retain Jackson Jr at a more immediately pressing position of need. I’ve seen enough to believe he can still be a rotation guy in a different situation.

*Note: The Bucks are expected to waive Tyler Smith if they can’t find a trade by the 5pm deadline on 10/20

5. Can Horst package Kuzma & Portis for a material upgrade?

The Bucks have about 23% of the cap (~ $36 M dollars) tied up in Portis and Kuzma. Both guys are on the books for a couple more years, which could make it tough to get a tanking team to take on that salary. There aren’t many players that could be realistically available with that salary range, especially with some of the recent extensions.

The money works for players like Jerami Grant (Portland would need to be completely done with him and feel confident enough about their young core) and Andrew Wiggins (MIA would need to be tanking most likely). If this team flounders, Kuz + Portis are the only contracts big enough to make a sizable trade but it’s unlikely those teams (or any team to be fair) would accept such a package without sweeteners.

Record Prediction

Total Wins Over/Under: 42.5 via BetMGM

Floor: 34–48 (-14 wins)

This team is in no way capable of remaining competitive in the event Giannis misses a significant stretch of time, emphasized by back to back years with 2 of his highest on/off differentials in his career.

Ceiling: 45–27 (-3 wins)

It’s been 7 years since this franchise has won less than 45 games and they’ve finished above .500 every year since Giannis fully ascended. He’s simply that dominant. If Doc pulls the right levers, Myles 3-ball translates and they’re able to get away with a heist with Portis/Kuz contracts, MIL could ruin a top 4 seeds in the East dreams of contention.

Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Bucks this season?

Overall Grade: B-

Up Next: Cleveland Cavaliers