30 teams, 30 days: Minnesota Timberwolves | 2026 Season Preview

Welcome to my 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions.

Notable Additions: Joan Beringer, Rocco Zikarsky

Notable Subtractions: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Luka Garza, Josh Minott

Depth Chart:

PG: Mike Conley / Rob Dillingham / Bones Hyland

SG: Anthony Edwards/ Donte Divencenzo / Tristen Newton

SF: Jaden McDaniels/ Jaylen Clark / Terrence Shannon Jr / Joe Ingles

PF: Julius Randle / Naz Reid / Leonard Miller / Enrique Freeman

C: Rudy Gobert / Joan Beringer / Rocco Zikarsky

Roster Hierarchy:

Franchise: Anthony Edwards

Core: Julius Randle, Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert

Key Rotation: Mike Conley, Donte Divencenzo, Naz Reid, Rob Dillingham, Jaylen Clark

Rotation: Bones Hyland, Terrence Shannon Jr, Joan Beringer, Joe Ingles, Leonard Miller

Development: Tristen Newton, Enrique Freeman, Rocco Zikarsky

Offseason Overview:

In the 18 years before the Wolves made what was widely considered the “worst trade in NBA history”, the franchise had made the playoffs just twice, with a 531-901 record (37.1 win%). The Wolves have made the playoffs in each of Rudy Gobert’s 3 seasons so far in Minnesota, winning 60% of their games (147-99), and are entering the 2026 season with 2 straight Western Conference finals runs.

With this success in mind, Tim Connelly probably should’ve gotten the benefit of the doubt with the next massive trade Minnesota swung last offseason. Turning KAT into Randle + Donte proved to be, at worst, a net neutral move, with the Wolves storming their way to the Conference Finals once again.

Pre-Draft Areas of Need:

🥇 30th in Transition Frequency off Live Rebounds

🥈 Backup Center (Gobert + Naz destroyed teams with a +10.8 net rating, but fell to a more pedestrian +3 with Naz on the floor WITHOUT Gobert)

🥉 Connective Playmaking: 8th in Passes/G (287.5), 27th in Potential Assists/G (27th)

MIN’s only acquisition were their 2 draft picks, with both selections made in the hope one of them can step into Gobert’s size 20 shoes one day.

Season Outlook:

1. Can Mike Conley give the Wolves one more year?

It’s wild that 38 year old Mike Conley is still one of the more impactful players on the roster, ranking 3rd in EPM1 (+1.3, 84th%) and On/Off Differential (+3.4, 72nd%), evidence that his role as a steadying presence and Gobert whisperer is still valuable despite his diminishing efficiency and scoring gravity. He’s by far the most productive rim assist creator averaging 3.88 per 100 possessions, a full assist more than 2nd place Randle, and has assisted Gobert more than any other Wolf (although Ant had the most Gobert assists last year, a very important development we’ll talk about in the next question).

Conley also never turns the ball over, with a stellar 3.8 scoring turnover%2 and 9.9 bad pass%3 over the last 3 years. He quite literally slows the Wolves down, dropping their pace from 99.4 (equivalent of 17th fastest) to 95.8 (easily the slowest in the league). This needs to be a transition year though, necessitated by Ant’s progression as a playmaker, Conley’s decline and the need to scale Dillingham up to evaluate whether he can run the offense. Finch will need to wean the more matured Wolves from the stability Conley provided in years past, giving them the opportunity to explore a new, more explosive style of play.

2. What’s the next progression for Anthony Edwards?

There’s a consistent signal with rim protectors and lead creators that you’ll find with pretty much any guard/wing and bigman combo around the league. With Gobert on the court, Anthony Edwards shot 56.8% at the rim, taking 20% of his shots from midrange and 29% at the rim. With Gobert OFF the court, Ant shot 61% at the rim, with his midrange frequency dropping to 16.5% and his rim frequency increasing to 32%.

While Gobert’s presence is a confounding factor for Ant’s individual rim finishing, Gobert’s global impact on the Timberwolves finishing and rim protection is worth the negative impact on Ant’s rim FG%. With Gobert on the floor, the Wolves rim FG% increases +2.2% (66.6% -> 66.8%) and their frequency goes up slightly, while their opponents rim FG% drops 5% (67.3% -> 62.3%) with a similarly massive -6% drop in frequency (32.5% -> 26.5%).

Wolves fans know too well how incapable Ant was at finding Gobert earlier in his career, but Antman continues to prove that he can improve on any weakness over the course of an offseason. He finished this season as the best pull-up 3P shooter in the sport, after his inability to consistently punish teams in his earlier playoff runs. Considering Ant’s midrange game has been largely ineffective (36% and 40% on SMR and LMR shots in his career), he has to continue his passing growth as an interior passer to maximize the minutes he plays with Gobert.

3. Can Jaylen Clark and Terrence Shannon Jr replace NAW?

Unfortunately, Nickeil’s shot deserting him in subsequent playoff runs has overshadowed his regular season contributions as the vitally important guard who could fulfill a variety of roles for this Wolves team. Nickeil’s departure leaves the Wolves with a bit of a question mark in that off-guard spot, as Donte will need support on both ends to be at his best. That role will need to be addressed as a collective, as Clark and Shannon Jr both have shades of Nickeil’s skillset, even if they aren’t as complete of a player.

Clark’s achilles tear in college derailed his chance to be picked in the 1st round in 2023, allowing the Wolves to pounce on the talented defender in the 2nd round. After a year on ice, his dogged defense at the POA earned him more regular season minutes than any other young cub on last year’s roster, but his lack of spacing value prevented him from getting playoff minutes. Clark has to find ways to be more active off the ball and attack closeouts, flashing an ability to float into open spaces for dump offs this summer.

Shannon Jr is an uber-aggressive downhill scorer who Finch turned to in the playoffs to provide a spark when MIN’s offense got sluggish. His insane 59.9% pre-draft free-throw rate is the 2nd highest among drafted players to attempt at least 200 threes, with Shannon’s athleticism (17 dunks) distinguishing him among the other guys in that query. With that in mind, it wasn’t surprising to see his rim pressure translate in the NBA, though he has to learn how to modulate his pace to avoid turnovers.

Rob Dillingham is certainly more important to the Wolves’ long-term contention, but I think MIN accepted it will take a long time for him to develop, as young point guards always have. These 2 wings are incredibly vital right now however, meaning Clark sustaining his 3P% on increased volume and/or TSJ refining his offensive process is the key to MIN surpassing the true contenders in the West.

4. Will Beringer develop quickly enough to anchor the minutes without Rudy?

I was a bit too critical of the Beringer pick during the draft, due to my concern about the Wolves goal to contend clashing with my projection of Beringer’s extended developmental runway. I viewed Joan pre-draft as a prospect that would require multiple years of investment to make an impact, grossly underrating just how special his his athleticism and physical tools are. It can be tough to gauge to what extent a prospect’s athletic gifts will translate to the NBA — especially when they’re playing against international competition — but after revisiting his film upon seeing his ridiculous mobility and agility against summer league and preseason comp, I realized Beringer will be an incredibly valuable lesson that will refine my draft evaluation process going forward.

He won’t need to do much offensively next to Naz besides run the floor, crash the offensive glass and finish lobs, things his elongated stride and Mr. Fantastic arms can accomplish quite easily. What I’m most interested in however, is his potential to provide resistance at the rim and relieve MIN of playing Naz at the 5. In the last 3 years, Naz has roughly split his time at PF and C 50/50, playing more center in 2023 and more PF the last 2 years. In the 2,718 minutes Naz played the 4, the Wolves outscored teams by 8.2 points per 100 possessions. In the 2,626 minutes he played the 5, MIN had a net rating of just +0.3.

If we look at the sample without KAT, units with Gobert + Naz destroyed teams with a +10.8 net rating, but fell to a more pedestrian +3 with Naz on the floor WITHOUT Gobert. This is further evidence that while Naz certainly provides a ton of offensive value, Reid’s giving up too much on defense to play 55% of his minutes without Rudy. Leonard Miller was supposed to be that weakside rim protector (and he still could be, I refuse to sell my stock), but the early returns have me optimistic Beringer may prove to be too valuable on defense to keep off the floor by mid-season.

5. Did the KAT trade prove to be the correct decision?

In the days following the KAT trade, I posted a thread detailing why I believed the trade was a win for BOTH teams:

“The Wolves HC offense suffered without a secondary advantage creator, with KAT effectively creating for himself, but not having the passing chops to generate good looks for everyone else. Minnesota is adding one of the best drive and kick threats in the NBA, and hoping they can navigate their cramped spacing with Randle getting back to league average 3P%. The financials were probably the biggest catalyst of this trade, KAT was due 35% of the cap with 4 years left on his contract, while Donte and Randle combined make less than KAT by himself.

Both teams were able to address pressing areas of need, pushing themselves closer to the ultimate objective, winning a championship. New York’s window was more immediate with their acquisition of Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson’s playoff production.

Don’t be mistaken though, Minnesota is building a contender too, just more sustainably. In this new CBA landscape, the previous iteration of the Wolves was not going to be able to weather the limiting factors of the dreaded 2nd apron.”

Tim Connelly expertly positioned the Wolves with the maximum financial flexibility around Ant, while giving a longer runway for their young talent to develop and resigned Naz with the space vacated by KAT’s departure while remaining competitive and returning to the conference finals.

Record Prediction

Total Wins Over/Under: 50.5 via BetMGM

Floor: 42–40 (-7 wins)

It’s hard to imagine substantial regression for a team that’s returning so many players from a Western Conference finals core, but Nickeil leaving for ATL and Conley getting a year older introduces some variability as the guard and wing spot that could cause MIN to stumble a bit in the regular season.

Ceiling: 54–28 (+7 wins)

Anthony Edwards is poised to make yet another leap, Randle should be more comfortable in year two as a Wolf, and I’m anticipating Divecenzo and McDaniels can scale up a bit on offense. As long as one of Dillingham, Clark or Shannon Jr. can become a rotational player that should be enough to propel the wolves to a top 4 seed.

Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Wolves this season?

Overall Grade: B-

Up Next: Memphis Grizzlies