30 teams, 30 days: New Orleans Pelicans | 2026 Season Preview

Welcome to my 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions.

Notable Additions: Jordan Poole, Saddiq bey, Kevon Looney, Jeremiah Fears, Derik Queen, Micah Peavy

Notable Subtractions: Bruce Brown, CJ McCollum, Kelly Olynk

Depth Chart:

PG: Jordan Poole / Jose Alvarado / Jeremiah Fears / Dejounte Murray

SG: Trey Murphy III / Jordan Hawkins / Micah Peavy / Bryce McGowens

SF: Herbert Jones / Trey Alexander / Jalen McDaniels

PF: Zion Williamson / Saddiq Bey / Karlo Matkovic

C: Yves Missi / Kevon Looney / Derik Queen / Hunter Dickinson

Roster Hierarchy:

Franchise: Zion Williamson

Core: Herbert Jones, Trey Murphy III, Derik Queen, Jeremiah Fears

Key Rotation: Saddiq Bey, Kevon Looney, Jose Alvarado, Jordan Hawkins, Yves Missi

Rotation: Karlo Matkovic, Trey Alexander, Jalen McDaniels

Development: Micah Peavy, Hunter Dickinson, Bryce McGownens

Cryo Chamber: Dejounte Murray

Offseason Overview:

Being involved in the most ridiculed, scrutinized and inexplicable move of the offseason is a rough way to start the 2026 campaign, which is exactly where the Pelicans find themselves after trading their UNPROTECTED 2026 1st round pick to move up and select Derik Queen. It’s one of the riskiest moves we‘ve seen a franchise make in recent history, as Queen is an extremely variable prospect and the Pelicans draft pick was projected by many teams’ internal models as a Top-5, Top-10 pick in next year’s draft!

That’s an immense amount of draft capital to invest in an injury-prone team that finished in the bottom 5 in DRTG and ORTG, but NOP was clearly comfortable to roll the dice once more with Zion’s health. The formula hasn’t changed from years past, with the Pels acquiring shooters to space the floor for Big Z, though the rotation is definitively more precocious, leaving the Pelicans with one of the murkier futures in the NBA.

Pre-Draft Areas of Need:

🥇 Perimeter Juice: 29th in Iso PP (0.82), 28th in PNR BallHandler PPP (0.81)

🥈 Shot Creation: 29th in Overall Shot Quality, 25th in C&S 3PAr (26.6%), 28th in Rim FG%( 51.3%)

🥉 SFrontcourt Reinforcement: 30th in PNR Roll Man PPP Allowed (1.25), 28th in Post-Up PPP Allowed (1.11), 28th in Cut PPP Allowed (1.36)

Poole’s on-ball creativity will kickstart this offense, though they remain reliant on Zion’s creation and may struggle to protect the paint.

Season Outlook:

1. Can Poole scale up while improving his ball security?

JP has just 1 year with an on-ball% above 30% and his shot usage has hovered below the top 10% of the league his entire career. He’s quietly one of the best guard rim finishers in the league, finishing above 66% every year since his rookie season on ~20% rim frequency and scored at an above league-average efficiency (+3.6, 85th%) on 8.6 creation true shot attempts in a terrible scenario. There shouldn’t be any doubt about his ability to put the ball in the basket in a litany of different ways, ranking in the top 10th% volume-wise as a PNR ballhandler, handoff, off-screen and transition scorer.

The big question is whether he can stop bleeding value with his turnover problem, with 4 straight seasons in the bottom 15th% in non-passing turnovers and the bottom 30th% in passing-turnovers. He needs to up his playmaking volume massively to offset this inability to take care of the ball, which will only happen if he proves trustworthy enough to take the ball out of Zion’s hands.

2. Does this team have any chance defensively?

There isn’t a perimeter defender in the league who will be working harder than Herb Jones. With Queen healthy (and Saddiq isn’t much better), the Pels will have 48 mins of Zion/Missi/DQ/Looney in the frontcourt paired with 48 mins of at least 1 of Poole/Fears in the backcourt.

Loon’s their best defensive big but his mobility has dwindled over the years, Queen’s one of the weakest defensive center prospects in recent years, Zion gets disengaged and spacey easily and Missi still struggles with fouling and positioning. This is a nightmarish synergy of incompetence at the POA and at the rim, I don’t see anyway this unit finishes anywhere but the bottom 3rd of the league defensively.

3. Can we be a bit more realistic about Trey Murphy?

Trey Murphy increased his scoring by nearly 7 ppg (14.8 -> 21.2) and set career-highs in rebounds, assists, drives, points in the paint and % of points from midrange jumpers, which is leading fans to believe he took steps closer to being one of the premier star wings in the NBA. A closer look under the hood reveals that that’s not quite the case.

Trey averaged a career high in shot usage, but wasn’t quite able to carry over his amazing 90th% efficiency from the 2 years prior, dipping to +1.8 rTS%. That’s still a pretty strong number, but it’s carried by his continued excellence as a finisher and shooter. As a creator, Trey shot -8.9 rTS% on the largest volume of his career, ranked 277th and 237th as a PNR handler and isolation scorer, and turned it over on 16.7% of his PNR possessions.

I still think these reps were beneficial for his overall game and development, but what we saw from him this season was actually an indicator that he should not be scaled up as a creator, because he’s such an awesome shooter and athletic finisher.

1. What’s the long-term plan with the guard position??

There are a number of things that make me scratch my head with the Pelicans, from Willie Green still being the head coach to whether Queen/Zion fit together, yet nothing makes me more confused than this team’s decisions with their guard room. They brought in Dejounte but he tore his achilles in January, so it made sense when NOP acquired Poole as a bridge guard who could thrive next to Zion. It started to get wild once Fears got added into the mix.

The conundrum I’m pondering is whether New Orleans seriously thinks a Dejounte/Poole or Fears backcourt is viable. There just isn’t any combo of these 3 that should be on the floor simultaneously, yet DJ and Poole are on the books for 40% of the cap through 2027. How will they get Fears enough touches to develop when Dejounte’s healthy? If Poole thrives, will they retain him at the cost of locking themselves into 2 thin-framed, questionable defenders in their starting backcourt?

5. Is there another level for Zion to reach?

Zion’s the greatest paint threat in modern history, the game’s most doubled player, an undeniable force of nature that changes the geometry every time he steps on the floor. His continued development and growth as a playmaker is likely what’ll unlock him even further, as he’s increased his assist volume every single year, while ALSO decreasing his bad pass%. Williamson’s positional playmaking value is criminally under discussed, he ranked in the 100th% in Potential Assists per 100 among power-forwards.

He’s also an uncharacteristically varied scorer, with Top 10 seasons in scoring effectiveness in post-up, iso, cut and transition playtypes. A fully realized Zion that combines his 2024 iso and transition scoring with his 2021 post-up and putback scoring while taking another step as a playmaker would be without a doubt, the most dominant offensive force in the league.

Record Prediction

Total Wins Over/Under: 30.5 via BetMGM

Floor: 22–60 (+1 win)

The doomsday outcome is something that could happen to any team, but it just feels more realistic with the Pelicans (or any NOLA sports franchise honestly). IF the rookies struggle and injuries strike again, it could be a long offseason with no draft goodies to ease the pain.

Ceiling: 36–46 (+15 wins)

There aren’t many players that could backpack those roster to a Play-In berth, but Zion is surely one of those players on that short-list. He’s saying all the right things this summer and looks to be in great shape, which might just be all it takes to at least minimize the pain of trading a lottery pick away in an uber-competitive Western Conference.

Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Pelicans this season?

Overall Grade: C-

Up Next: Utah Jazz