30 teams, 30 days: Oklahoma City Thunder | 2026 Season Preview

Welcome to my 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions.

I began posting these exclusively on Twitter, Instagram and Tiktok, so those who are reading my previews for the 1st time will get the first ~15 teams all at once. I intend to use Substack as a more permanent archive for the long-form posts that I would usually post on Twitter, which will allow me to make these write-ups, breakdowns and observations more digestible and engaging.

I hope you all enjoy the rest of this series, I plan to document my observations, statistical and film analysis throughout the course of the season, so make sure to subscribe!

Notable Additions: Thomas Sorber, Re-signed Jaylin Williams and Ajay Mitchell

Notable Subtractions: Returned all rotation players from the 2025 title-winning roster

Depth Chart:

PG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander / Cason Wallace / Nikola Topic

SG: Luguentz Dort / Isaiah Joe / Ajay Mitchell

SF: Jalen Williams / Alex Caruso / Aaron Wiggins / Brooks Barnheizer

PF: Chet Holmgren / Kenrich Williams/ Ousmane Dieng

C: Isaiah Hartenstein / Jaylin Williams / Thomas Sorber / Branden Carlson

Roster Hierarchy:

Franchise: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Core: Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren

Starters/Key Rotation: Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Luguentz Dort

Rotation: Jaylin Williams, Kenrich Williams, Ousmane Dieng, Isaiah Joe

Development: Nikola Topic, Ajay Mitchell

Offseason Overview:

It’s been 7 years since the NBA has seen a team win the Finals in back to back years, with OKC attempting to rudely disrupt the age of parity that’s defined modern basketball by repeating as champions. Sam Presti elected to return nearly every player from their title-winning 15-man roster while rewarding his franchise players with massive (and more importantly, staggered) extensions, ensuring this roster maintains its continuity through the 2026 season.

His shrewd cap navigation combined with his infamous strategy of hoarding first-rounders over the past couple of seasons has gifted OKC unparalleled financial and roster flexibility among modern defending champs, positioning the Thunder perfectly to be the NBA’s next dynasty.

Pre-Draft Areas of Need:

🥇 Tertiary Playmaking: 25th in Passes/G, -700 LESS passes than Indy in the Finals

🥈 3-Point generation: 27th in Contested 3p% (25.2%), 1st in PU 3PAr

🥉 Frontcourt Reinforcement: 15th in REB% +/- (+0.3%), -5.8 REB% in the finals with iHart OFF the floor

OKC’s focus on retention means that they’ll need internal development from JDub and Chet to address their pre-draft needs IF they don’t make a move this season. First-round draft pick Thomas Sorber was poised to add some depth to the frontcourt, but unfortunately will be out for the entire season rehabbing a torn ACL.

Season Outlook:

1. Can Topic/Ajay/Cason/Sorber take the requisite steps to begin to replace the expensive, yet crucial, vets?

Isaiah Hartenstein, Lugentz Dort and Alex Caruso were incredibly meaningful contributors to OKC’s title, which is why they combine to make 40% of the cap. While SGA’s extension doesn’t kick in until 2027-2028, Chet and JDub will both see a substantial raise in 2026-2027. OKC will have team options on iHart and Dort in those same seasons, which means they need some of their young guys to take strides to alleviate some of that cap pressure.

If Cason can grow as a closeout driver and tertiary ball handler and/or Topic’s rim pressure & playmaking translates extremely quickly and/or Ajay’s creation ability remains viable against stronger lineups, Presti can decline those options and potentially renegotiate cheaper deals with the vets, cycling in younger talent on the perimeter to remain cheap around his core. Sorber unfortunately being essentially redshirted with his injury makes their frontcourt decision making a bit murkier, which may crack the door open for JWill to carve out a larger role.

2. Will Holmgren recapture his pre-injury offense?

Chet has played in just 52% of OKC’s 281 regular season and postseason games since he was drafted, with the 2022 offseason foot injury and the 2024 iliac hip fracture forcing him to miss significant time. While the foot injury required surgery and robbed him of his rookie season, the more recent hip injury (non-surgical recovery) seemingly sapped more of his offensive juice. Holmgren was cooking in his 1st couple games of the 2024 season before he fell on November 11th, averaging 18.2 PPG /9.2 REB / 2.2 AST/ 2.9 BLKS, 51.9/40/77.6 splits and an excellent 63.3 TS%.

His mobility, shooting form and driving ability was drastically different when he returned, a reflection of how tough it is to be dropped into the middle of a NBA season after 3 months of inactivity. A summer of conditioning should have him back to pre-injury form offensively, which should be a scary proposition for the West considering he was still a T3 defender in the sport even with all the time away from the game last season.

3. Will Presti cash in on a number of his 14 firsts over the next two drafts? Presti loves acquiring picks, and considering the NBA has not seen a repeat champion in nearly a decade, it may behoove the Thunder to utilize their treasure trove of assets to bring in some additional offensive talent. OKC was consistently linked to Cam Johnson around the trade deadline and decided to stay put, which makes me wonder if they may consider somewhat similar players this year (MPJ, Jerami Grant, etc.), big wings that are legitimate shooters who don’t entirely compromise the defense.

4. How will Mark streamline the double-big look?

In the limited regular season mins iHart and Chet played together, OKC remained nearly as elite with both of them on the floor (+10.7 Net, +7.5 rORTG) as they were with Chet on, iHart off (+17.9, +7.7) and iHart on, Chet off (+13.3 Net, +5.1 rORTG). In the playoffs however, the Thunder were far better with 1 big on the floor (+15.1 with Chet, +7.4 with iHart, +2.4 w/ both). While their struggles can be chalked up to lack of chemistry, OKC’s playmakers also struggled with interior passing against swarming playoff defenses and there were very infrequent high to low and big to big actions involving both centers.

A healthy Chet massively shifts this dynamic, especially if HC Mark Daigneault leans into Holmgren’s driving ability with iHart screening, and more delay actions at the top of the key to facilitate offense without relying on SGA’s awesome driving ability.

5. Is there a ceiling to OKC’s turnover edge?

OKC won the turnover battle to a record-breaking extent this season, recording the largest playoff turnover differential (opponent turnovers - team turnovers) in NBA history. They had a staggering +131 TO differential, with the gap between them and the #2 highest TO differential equal to the gap between #2 and #63 per Owen Phillips. SGA’s turnover suppression with his shot diet and usage and the generationally disruptive caste of defenders surrounding him has enabled OKC to exploit the possession factors to their benefit against virtually any opponent. This ability is what drove OKC to a title, their defensive strength powering them past the many offensive flaws that stagnated their HC offense.

OKC remained a great transition offense in the playoffs, but their greatest threats int the West have responded by getting even bigger (potential triple big in Houston with Capela FA signing, Brook Lopez + John Collins in LAC, etc.) which may bode problems for a Thunder team built on length and versatility to overcome strength disadvantages. I expect this ability to disrupt opponents while minimizing their own turnovers to remain effective, but the pace of the playoffs makes me wonder if OKC can repeat off the strength of their disruption, if they don’t address their halfcourt offensive inefficiencies.

Record Prediction

Total Wins Over/Under: 62.5 via BetMGM

Floor: 55-27 (-13 wins)

A 13 win drop-off seems drastic for the back to back #1 seed, especially since OKC is probably too young to experience the championship hangover that causes some teams to get complacent after getting a chip. The competitive landscape of the West factors in heavily here, as there are 14 teams who are convinced they can make the playoffs and only 2 that I believe have zero shot at making the play-in. OKC is likely far too resilient to drop this far, but if one thing goes wrong, the res tof the West is ready to pounce.

Ceiling: 69-13 (+1 win)

OKC put themselves in all-time great team trajectory with their dominance last season, so it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if this team scratches 70ish wins.

Overall Grade: A

Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Thunder this season?

Up Next: Houston Rockets