30 teams, 30 days: San Antonio Spurs | 2026 Season Preview

Welcome to my 30 teams in 30 days series, the most comprehensive and informative previews for every team in the NBA. Inside these posts, you’ll get up to speed with every team’s offseason additions and their roster hierarchies, learn whether they’ve addressed their biggest areas of need, ponder over 5 questions that will define their season and then decide whether you agree with my offseason grades and record predictions.

Notable Additions: Dylan Harper, Luke Kornet, Carter Bryant, Kelly Olynk

Notable Subtractions: Chris Paul, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Blake Wesley, Malaki Branham

Depth Chart:

PG: De’Aaron Fox / Dylan Harper / Jordan McLaughlin / David Jones-García

SG: Devin Vassell / Stephon Castle / Lindy Waters III

SF: Harrison Barnes / Julian Champagnie / Carter Bryant / Riley Minix

PF: Jeremy Sochan/ Keldon Johnson / Kelly Olynyk / Harrison Ingram

C: Victor Wembanyama / Luke Kornet / Bismack Biyombo

Roster Hierarchy:

Franchise: Victor Wembanyama

Core: De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper

Key Rotation: Jeremy Sochan, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet, Devin Vassell

Rotation: Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, Kelly Olynk, Bismack Biyombo, Jordan McLaughlin, Lindy Waters III

Development: Carter Bryant, David Jones-Garcia, RIley Minix, Harrison Ingram

Offseason Overview:

As one of the more conservative organizations in the NBA, the Spurs were characteristically patient building around Victor Wembanyama, up until the All-Star break rolled around and De’Aaron Fox became available. San Antonio jumped at the chance to form an All-Star duo without gutting the rotation, but they only got 5 games of the 2 sharing the floor together before blood clots shut Wemby down for the rest of the season. Fox’s season-ending pinky surgery in March further sapped #PorVida fans’ excitement until the Spurs got blessed by the basketball gods with the #2 overall pick. They left the 2025 draft with Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant, 2 prospects who despite some redundancies with some of the players currently rostered, fit Wemby’s timeline a bit better and have more projectable skillsets than the players they may wind up replacing.

Perhaps securing Dylan Harper incentivized the Spurs to return to their patient ways, as they followed up their aggressive trade with a quieter-than-expected offseason, extending Fox (on a hopefully tradeable contract) and acquiring Luke Kornet, maybe the best backup big in the league last year.

Pre-Draft Areas of Need:

🥇 Frontcourt Reinforcement: 28th in REB +/- (−3.5%), 24th in Putback PPP

🥈 Perimeter Activity & Size: 27th in Spot-Up D PPP (1.09), 23rd in PNR Roll Man PPP (1.13)

🥉 Shooting: 29th in Post-Up TO% (16%), 24th in Open 3P% (35.5%)

San Antonio adequately reinforced the frontcourt, but their decision to not acquire a proven shooter necessitates internal 3P development from at least one of Sochan, Castle and Harper.

Season Outlook:

1. What’s the optimal ball handling split between Fox, Castle and Harper?

Splitting reps between multiple guards is already a tough task and the Spurs’ situation is further complicated with the huge gap between Fox and Castle/Harper’s developmental curves. Fox has consistently been one of the highest volume self-creators in the league since he entered the league, averaging 13.2 true shot attempts (TSA) out of Iso and PNR on +3.3 relative true shooting % over the last 3 years. San Antonio needs his creation ability considering the roster is full of play finishers outside of Wemby, but they also need to explore Harper and Castle’s potential to initiate for themselves and create for others.

Both guys have encouraging indicators, as Castle had tons of self-creation volume last year for a rookie (8.7 creation TSA, 84th%), while Harper shot 70% at the rim with just 17.6% being assisted. The efficiency was rough for both guards in their respective context off the dribble however, Castle shot -5.1 rTS% (46th%) on self-created looks and Harper shot just 28% on pull-up jumpers. The ideal scenario is for Fox to shoulder the vast majority of the playmaking responsibilities early in the season, give Dylan and Stephon initiation reps with the 2nd unit and then slowly ease one or the other into a lead ballhandler role.

2. How will San Antonio balance developing their young talent while also trying to compete with Wemby on his rookie contract?

The Spurs best player makes just ~ 8.6% of the cap next season, the 6th highest % on the roster! The value of having a guy of Wemby’s caliber, a Top 10 player by most metrics, for such a small fraction of the cap unlocks possibilities most teams rostering the league’s premier players don’t typically have. Despite this advantage, San Antonio’s approach to this point was exceedingly patient until the 2025 trade deadline, much to the chagrin of the fanbase (and maybe Wemby too). The Spurs are trying to walk the the tightrope between development and contention, hedging on their future by stacking young talent to build a sustainable and cost-controlled core around Wemby, holding onto their assets until an opportunity presents itself. They jumped at the chance to acquire Fox without relinquishing any consequential rotation players or development bets, so the question is will they be able to move off of some of their longest-tenured players if this roster shows they’re ready to take a step forward?

3. Is this a make or break season for Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan and Keldon Johnson?

Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan and Devin Vassell are the aforementioned “longest-tenured” players that San Antonio may be forced to package for a material upgrade on the wing. All 3 of these guys are likely on the chopping block, as Keldon’s development has stagnated and he’s lost his starting spot, Sochan is eligible for an extension yet there’s been no traction on getting one signed before the season starts and Vassell has a concerning combo of being a bit 1-dimensional and injury prone. Johnson is probably the one who has the highest chance of being moved, he’s remained an inconsistent and inefficient shooter who despite possessing nice size for the position, bring virtually zero defensive value. Devin’s 3P shooting and Jeremy’s defensive versatility are must-have’s for this roster even with their respective limitations.

4. Will Mitch Johnson deploy Wemby and Kornet together?

In the 3,633 NBA minutes Wemby has played through 2 seasons, just 13.7% of those came next to another big, a percentage that’s likely going to jump this upcoming season. Pop didn’t have the best options to choose from when creating double-big lineups, but Kornet brings the exact skillset and proven comfortability playing with another big that should allow the Spurs to lean into a bizzaro-version of the league’s newest meta. Victor’s massive wingspan allows him to uniquely impact shots at the rim, and Kornet’s rebounding ability will let him be even more aggressive roaming off of non-shooters.

Luke’s glass cleaning will also improve San Antonio’s rebounding edge on the other end, as Wemby’s propensity to play on the perimeter has caused the Spurs to be WORSE on the offensive glass with him on the floor. Luke + Vic will have a natural synergy reminiscent of Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford’s minutes with Kornet, with the stretch fives drawing his matchup out of the lane.

5. Which struggling shooter has the best chance to take a meaningful step towards demanding closeouts this season?

182 freshmen/sophomores have been drafted in the top 10 since 2008. 39 of those prospects shot worse than 33% from 3. The Spurs have drafted 3 of these prospects since 22. Is there hope for Dylan Harper, Jeremy Sochan and Stephon Castle to become league-average 3P shooters?

Jeremy certainly has the longest odds, the number of players who developed into league-average 3P shooters after shooting worse than 32% as a rookie is low, but it’s even lower for players who start their career with 3 straight such seasons. The lack of FT% progression combined with the low-volume from 3 makes it even less likely, but the good news is there are plenty examples of successful outcomes for low-volume 3PA 6’7ish guys (Vando, Larry Nance Jr., Isaiah Stewart, Brandon Clarke, etc.).

Castle was left open on his 3PA by an average of 7 feet in his rookie year and shot just 28.5%. He shot it better in high school and the FT% is a step above Sochan so I’d certainly bet on him becoming a capable 3P shooter before Jeremy.

Harper is a more complicated case, he has incredible volume off the dribble and shot 37% off the catch from 3, but his off-the dribble numbers (27% OTD 3P%) and contested 3P% (26.1 3P%), are valid reasons to be skeptical. In my evaluation, the combination of touch indicators and volume leads me to be most confident in Harper’s ability to demand closeouts.

Record Prediction

Total Wins Over/Under: 44.5 via BetMGM

Floor: 38-44 (+4 wins)

It’s reasonable to expect a drastic improvement from the Spurs with Wemby back on the floor, but I think this roster still has a ways to go to really compete in the West, despite likely having the best center rotation in the league. I’m not sold on the Fox/Wemby fit just yet, I think Wemby does more for Fox than vice versa, and there’s still a void of positional size on the wings that could cause issues.

Ceiling: 45-37 (+11 wins)

#MrCeilingRaiser CP3 is wearing a Clippers jersey now, but the Spurs can approximate his magic by following one of 2 paths to reach this ceiling, rapid development from their young guys or acquiring a wing upgrade.

Let me know if you agree with my predictions! What are your expectations for the Spurs this season?

Overall Grade: B

Up Next: Chicago Bulls