The Kings aren’t the only team in the association that chooses to play awful lineups that are completely incapable of winning games over their clearly more impactful combinations, but they ARE the only team in the league that, at least publicly, also want to actually be competitive. Atlanta will just need to continue to beat up on those maligned lineups SAC insists on putting on the court to extend the Kings’ losing streak to 4 games.

Injury Report:

ATL: Out — Trae Young (Right Knee), Questionable — Nickeil Alexander-Walker (low back spasm)

SAC: Out — Keegan Murray (UCL surgery recovery), Zach Lavine (thigh), Malik Monk (ankle)

Rest Advantages:

ATL: 1 day of rest w/ travel, SAC: 0 days of rest

Projected Starters:

ATL: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, Kristaps Porzingis

SAC: Dennis Schroeder, Russell Westbrook, Demar Derozan, Precious Achuiwa, Domantas Sabonis

Atlanta’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Sacramento’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Atlanta’s Offense vs Kings’ Defense

“Bad matchup” isn’t a strong enough word to describe the Kings’ “rim protection” facing the Hawks rim pressure in tonight’s game. This is the closest thing the English language has to truly encapsulate how slanted of a mismatch these 2 teams are in the paint.

33% of Atlanta’s shots come at the rim, Sacramento allows the HIGHEST rim FG% in the entire league. The Kings are one of the most disengaged teams I’ve ever seen when it comes to tagging the roller, often just standing and watching as the other team’s big detonates at the rim.

Keon Ellis and Russell Westbrook are the only players keeping this team from ranking last in the league in defensive rating, but they can only do so much when the Kings play 48 minutes without even a hint of rim protection (except for the minutes my GOAT Dylan Cardwell plays). It doesn’t take much to break that intial defensive layer, so the Hawks should find success forcing Demar to navigate screens, using KP to keep Domas high up the floor.

ATL leads the league in scoring efficiency off cuts (1.53), Sacramento allows the highest PPP in the league off cuts (1.53). A quick look at the tape reveals the same issues with their PNR coverage, they struggle to pass off assignments cleanly which leaves the rim wide open. Atlanta will be able to lean heavily into KP’s face-up game + Onyeka’s pinch post/delay facilitation to pick Sacramento apart.

Sacramento’s Offense vs Atlanta’s Defense

The Kings 6 best offensive games this season were all fueled by hot 3P shooting OR high rim FG% + a high free-throw rate. The blueprint to force this team to struggle on offense is pretty simple as a result — guard Demar in single coverage without falling for his pump fakes, force Sabonis to kick out to weaker shooters when he rolls and run everyone else off the line.

The Kings will be missing Monk and Lavine, their 2 best pull-up 3P shooters, which simplifies the defensive game plan even more. SAC was already 29th in 3-point attempt rate, ATL should not allow them to harness the unholy powers of three-point variance to potentially make this game competitive. Any digs on paint touches must come off the correct personnel, like the way Edwards helps off of Demar in the clip below.

Hawks legend Dennis Schroder has struggled mightily, shooting 1/19 in his last 3 games combined. Don’t be surprised if he sees some positive regression tonight however, as he’ll be in a more on-ball role & he’s a much more comfortable shooter off the dribble. I’m expecting ATL will have Dyson check Demar as well, so NAW & Keaton need to be alert getting over screens when the ball is in Dennis’ hands.

This is the type of effort that will completely shut down the Kings’ offense. Any baseline drives that draw 2 should kick off a seamless X-out.

Key Action for the Hawks:

Quin Snyder drew up some nasty sets in the Hawks’ win over the Clippers, but this Veer Chase action out of Horns Out was downright disgusting. After a timeout, Luke Kennard screens for Onyeka at the elbow (“the Horns Out” component). OO then acts like he’s going to screen for Dyson (“Veer”), then sets a down screen for Kennard. Luke then swings it BACK to Onyeka and follows his pass (“Chase”), setting up a fake DHO that gets Dyson a wide-open dunk.

They should eat with variations of this action against a Kings team that is extremely vulnerable at the rim (30th in rim FG% & cut PPP allowed).

The Verdict

This is about as BBQ chicken a matchup the Hawks will get all season. As long as they don’t beat themselves with live-ball turnovers or shoddy defensive rotations, they will add another W.