The on-court product the Jazz put on the floor is still a good but away from being competitive, but there are few coaches I enjoy watching draw up plays more than Will Hardy. His movement shooting sets that heavily feature his bigs are a joy to watch, good for an action or two a game that gets me to jump off the couch. It’ll be interesting seeing how much Atlanta plays through their bigs tonight in comparison, particularly with Porzingis unsurprisingly missing tonight’s game (second night of a B2B).

Injury Report:

ATL: Out — Trae Young (Right Knee), Kristaps Porzingis (rest)

UTA: Out — Georges Niang (foot), Walker Kessler (shoulder surgery), Taylor Hendricks (hamstring strain), Kyle Anderson (back)

Rest Advantages:

ATL: 0 days of rest w/ travel, UTA: 1 day of rest

Projected Starters:

ATL: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu

UTA: Keyonte George, Svi Mykhailuk, Ace Bailey, Lauri Markannen, Jusuf Nurkic

Atlanta’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Utah’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Atlanta’s Offense vs Jazz’s Defense

This will be Atlanta’s first away “rest-disadvantage” game, meaning a game where their opponent is coming off at least a day of rest, while the Hawks are on the 2nd night of a back-to-back. ATL has already played 2 rest-disadvantage games at home (LAL & OKC), with wildly disparate results and they’ll also be dealing with Utah’s underrated home-court advantage.1

Back in 2023, I went down a rabbit-hole investigating whether Denver’s home-court advantage impacted their win% on the 2nd night of a back to back at home, finding that while Denver had the biggest delta between their win overall win% and win% against teams with no rest at home, only San Antonio won those rest-advantage games more often than Utah. This suggests tonight’s game could be more competitive than most may expect, especially if the Hawks start sluggish.

The Jazz are 25th in defensive rating despite holding teams to the lowest shot quality in the league2. This is a #WalkerKessler stat, as Utah allowed the FEWEST shots in the restricted area per game (15.4) before his injury, a full 10 less per game than league average over that span. That number has increased to 22.5 since, which still ranks in the bottom 3rd.

While Walker was suppressing rim attempts to an unreal extent, he wasn’t able to staunch the bleeding when teams were able to get past that 1st level of defense. Nurkic gets himself screened here trying to slow down Ant, which leaves him flat-footed when Gobert flashes to the rim.

The Hawks found a ton of success against the Kings a night ago — a team with very similar defensive deficiencies, playing a non-rim protecting big with 0 POA defense — but the Jazz have a good bit more side on the weakside (Lauri/Flip/Nurkic) even if those guys aren’t the best vertical athletes. The entire Hawks roster can have some contact-averse tendencies, so I’ll be monitoring who challenges the Jazz’s bigs at the rim when they see this type of weakside help.

Jazz’s Offense vs Atlanta’s Defense

There aren’t many things the Jazz do well on offense, but they do get to the line a ton, snag offensive rebounds and convert on their short midrange attempts at a very high-rate.

Keyonte George is one of the more prolific foul-drawers in the league, ranking 5th in free-throw attempts per 100 possessions (11.2). Free-throws make up 52% of his shot-diet, regularly rejecting screens with the sole intent of drawing a foul. The Hawks defenders are more than capable of keeping up with him in space, they can’t bail him out with an errant off-hand or unnecessary contact.

Utah is 2nd in OREB rate without having a single player in the T30 in offensive rebounds per 100 possessions. Taylor Hendricks was the closest, though him being out tonight does not mean the Jazz will struggle on the offensive glass. They are virtually guaranteed to send at least 1 body crashing every possession to try and get a board. Ace Bailey has done a really good job crashing from the corners, which will test Zacch’s ability to keep a superior athlete away from the ball. Risacher will need to do his work early to prevent possessions like the clip below.

Nurkic will demand a box-out or 2 as well, so the Hawks will absolutely need to gang rebound anytime a shot goes up with him on the floor.

Key Action for the Hawks:

Chicago3 is a staple in many teams’ playbooks, a movement-heavy set that the Hawks love to go to out of delay4. NAW enters the ball to Onyeka who flows into a dribble handoff as Dyson sets a pin-down screen for Jalen Johnson. As Jalen turns the corner, Zacch dives while NAW lifts up the wing, creating an outlet for JJ to find Risacher for a push shot.

The Verdict

The Hawks will be able to target the same weaknesses the Kings have, but it’ll come down to whether they’re capable of finishing through a bit more resistance.