Hello everyone, thank you to those who have supported me in this new expansion of my NBA coverage! I’m going to be rolling out new features throughout this week, starting with my matchup previews!

As an Atlanta native and die-hard fan turned analyst & credentialed reporter, you can expect previews for every Hawks game, diving into everything you need to know to be prepared and informed for every single game. On days where ATL isn’t playing, I’ll release a preview for a select game from that night’s slate. As our community grows, I’ll post polls the night before and focus on the game that you, the reader, want to get my analysis and thoughts on. Let’s get to it.

Injury Report:

ATL: Questionable — Jalen Johnson (Right Ankle Sprain), Zaccharie Risacher (Right Ankle Sprain), Kristaps Porziņģis (Flu-like Symptoms), Out: Nikola Đurišić, Eli Ndiaye (Did not travel with team, likely because of SkyHawks training camp via @btrowland)

CHI: Out: Coby White (Right Calf Strain), Zach Collins (Left Scaphoid Fracture), Questionable — Josh Giddey (Right Finger; 4th MCP Sprain)

Rest Advantages:

ATL: 1 day of rest w/ travel, CHI: 1 day of rest w/travel

Projected Starters:

ATL: Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, Kristaps Porziņģis

CHI: Josh Giddey, Tre Jones, Isaac Okoro, Matas Buzelis, Nikola Vučević

Atlanta’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Chicago’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Atlanta’s Offense vs Chicago’s Defense

When the season is this young, it can be tough to reliably glean any information about a team’s performance on both ends. This can be evidenced by the Bulls currently ranking as the best defense in the league, thanks to their opponents shooting just 20.4% from three (the benefits of playing against ORL and DET). Conversely, the Hawks have faced a gauntlet of the most aggressive, physical and oppressive defenses in the NBA to open their season, including a matchup against the defending champions, while down 3 starters (Jalen Johnson, Zaccharie Risacher and Kristaps Porziņģis).

What we know for a fact though, is that these teams share a common emphasis on up-tempo play.

These teams accomplish that tempo in different ways however, as Chicago is forcing turnovers at the 5th lowest rate in the league through 2 games, continuing the lack of defensive playmaking I highlighted in their 30 teams, 30 days preview. This is great news for the Hawks, who have struggled to take care of the ball in their 3 games against strong TO generation teams.

Chicago is allowing the highest % of opponent FGA at the rim in the league, while suppressing opponents’ corner 3PA at the 2nd highest rate, areas where Atlanta found success to open the season. The Bulls held ORL to just 55% in the restricted area despite only blocking 2 shots on Saturday. CHI has done a solid job rallying on drives and running guys off the corner, the Hawks will need to continue to attack the rim nonetheless, especially when Vooch is on the floor.

Atlanta has struggled mightily scoring the ball in semi-transition, ranking 30th in PPP off opponent’s missed FGA. The Hawks offense has actually been MORE effective in the half-court, as they’ve had issues securing the defensive glass and have constantly turned the ball over when pushing the ball up the floor when they do get a rebound.

Some of this is certainly a function of playing great transition defenses who also crash the offensive glass, but ATL can’t afford to have these turnovers when the defense is in scramble mode. A large part of these TOs have come after Trae makes a lead pass, leading to some uncertainty off the bounce from Dyson, Gueye and others.

On this possession, Nickeil drives baseline after a lead pass from Trae, but the floor isn’t spaced well once he finds Dyson. Daniels’ doesn’t have enough space to comfortably fire, so he pump fakes then tries to kick it back to NAW who filled the corner WITHOUT forcing the defense to commit to his drive.

These types of plays can’t happen against CHI, who have been very disciplined getting back after a miss, ranking 2nd in PPP allowed in such situations.

Atlanta’s Defense vs Chicago’s Offense

CHI’s +7.5 net rating hides just how rough it’s been for this team offensively without Coby White, shooting just 56% at the rim (28th) with the 2nd worst offense in the league (105.6 ORTG).

The Bulls have compensated by getting to the free-throw line, posting a 36% free-throw rate (7th), a point of contention for a Hawks team that’s found themselves in foul trouble. A healthy version of the Hawks frontcourt is a good bit less foul-prone than the havoc creating reserves (Gueye & Asa), but ATL will need to remain disciplined nonetheless. Giddey will need to be the 1st player identified in any transition scenario, as that’s where he’s created most of his free-throw attempts.

Atlanta has also bled profusely at the rim, allowing the 2nd highest rim frequency in the league (37%) and an unreal 73% opponent rim FG%. This is juiced by the opening night loss to Toronto, where TOR scored 86 (EIGHTY-SIX) points in the paint.

It’s the same story defensively as it is offensively: The Hawks are able to contain teams in the halfcourt, but they really struggle on cross-matches in transition. It can’t be overemphasized how important transition defense is for the Hawks in tonight’s matchup, as Chicago simply doesn’t have the shot creation to keep up offensively in the halfcourt.

Key Action for the Hawks:

The Hawks have run a ton of “Ram Action”, an offensive action in which a player — usually a big — receives a screen and then sets a ballscreen. ATL has used NAW as the screener to free Onyeka into a handoff/screening action to get Trae downhill. This action is used to force the defending big to navigate an off-ball screen AND contain a drive, which an create a 1-on-1 scenario with the on-ball defender, like in the example below.

ATL should eat with this action against Vučević, who can struggle to get around screens and move his feet in space.

The Verdict

I’m anticipating at least 2 of the Hawks starting frontcourt to be active in tonight’s game, which SHOULD give the Hawks a decisive advantage over the Bulls, as long as they don’t beat themselves with unforced turnovers.

Let me know your thoughts on the formatting and information covered in this post! I’m looking to improve this publication in every way as the season goes along.