Trae Young thankfully avoided major ligament damage after Mouhamed Gueye was pushed into his right knee, escaping the massive impact with a MCL sprain. He’s slated to be re-evaluated in 4 weeks, which could provide the Hawks an opportunity to explore Jalen and Dyson’s on-ball potential. 4-weeks is roughly 15 or so games, in a somewhat softer stretch of the schedule (17th-toughest strength of schedule), though it’s important to remember a re-evaluation date is notably NOT a return date.

Injury Report:

CLE: Questionable — Donovan Mitchell (hamstring), Jarrett Allen (finger), Sam Merrill (hip) , Out — Max Strus (foot), Darius Garland (toe)

ATL: Out — Trae Young (right knee sprain)

Rest Advantages:

CLE: 1 day of rest no travel, ATL: 1 day of rest w/travel

Projected Starters:

CLE: Donovan Mitchell, Aaron Nesmith, De’Andre Hunter, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen

ATL: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, Kristaps Porziņģis

Cleveland’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Atlanta’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Atlanta’s Offense vs Cleveland’s Defense

Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson & Nickeil Alexander-Walker all saw larger roles in the Hawks 1st full-game without their lead playmaker but it was Dyson who saw the sharpest increase, as his on-ball% jumped by 5.8% (15.4% → 21.2%) & his offensive involvement went up 11% (23% → 34%).

Dysons’ last outing vs Indiana was easily the most comfortable he’s looked on offense all season, constantly drawing the defense in on drives before kicking the ball to open teammates. Watch how he attacks from a standstill in the clip below, utilizing his patented hang dribble with a couple quick crossovers to force Nesmith to flip his hips, crafting a wide open dunk for Mo Gueye.

So much of Dyson’s struggles to start the season appeared to be confidence/role clarity related, so it was reassuring to see Atlanta intentionally involve him in the offense early. ATL is coming out of a sideline out of bounds scenario (SLOB) in the clip below, setting up an Iverson Cut for Dyson to catch and drive vs Mac McClung with the corner vacated. This is a go-to set for Atlanta to kickstart their offense, using Onyeka & KP’s screening to generate an advantage for Dyson/NAW/Luke. Mac attempts to go under the screen to meet Dyson on the right side of the floor, so Dyson immediately reverses course to attack McClung as he scrambles.

These are the plays that give Dyson the confidence to play more decisively on offense, evidenced by how aggressively & confidently he attacks Quenton Jackson in transition.

Atlanta has taken exceptional care of the ball so far, thanks to Trae’s decision making (as well as using the bigs to playmake in the half-court). ATL continued that trend vs Indy — who to be fair, are one of the least disruptive teams in the league — committing just 6 live-ball turnovers. This improvement in ball security is huge for the Hawks, as they have outscored non-Thunder opponents by 12 points in the turnover battle. That will be tested tonight vs this disruptive Cavs team, with 4 players averaging 3+ deflections per game.

Cleveland’s Offense vs Atlanta’s Defense

The league’s best offense in 2025 has yet to find their stride this season, ranking in the bottom 5 in offensive rating, rim FG% and isolation PPP.

Cleveland’s offensive process hasn’t changed much from last year, they’re still one of the higher-frequency PNR teams in the league, with heavy off-ball cut volume. They certainly miss Garland and Strus’ offensive gravity however, as teams have happily helped aggressively from the corner on the bigs’ rolls and Mitchell’s drives. Watch how Josh Minott completely abandons Evan Mobley to blanket Jarrett Allen at the rim.

This is the biggest reason why CLE is leaning the NBA in 3PAr to open the season, as teams have consistently sold out on their paint touches, daring their depleted perimeter rotation to beat them from 3. Garland’s absence as a secondary creator is a massive factor as well, as Dre doesn’t fully engage Queta on this PNR, which makes it even easier for BOS to collapse on Allen once he catches the ball.

If the Cavs coaching staff watched any of the Nets matchup vs Atlanta, they’ll likely mix in some off-ball pindowns/curling actions for Mobley, forcing the Hawks to navigate screens & allowing Evan to attack the middle of the floor.

Expect that same aggressive help that Boston & Toronto deployed vs CLE from the Hawks tonight, especially with NAW & Dyson sharing the floor for 20+ mins a night. Any Cav who dares to turn their back to the basket below the FT line will immediately get smothered.

Key Action for the Hawks:

With Trae sidelined, Nickeil is the best pull-up shooting threat on the roster, which also makes him Atlanta’s most versatile PNR operator. NAW was able to get to whatever he wanted out of spread PNR vs Indy, they’ll need more of this tonight.

The Verdict

I’m anticipating that the Hawks end this road trip with a dub, as they’ve got the perfect personnel to constrict CLE’s favorite offensive actions.

Let me know your thoughts on the formatting and information covered in this post! I’m looking to improve this publication in every way as the season goes along.