Tonight’s matchup marks the Hawks first “nationally televised”1 game against a familiar foe, the Orlando Magic. Atlanta has played Orlando 3 times in a 10-game span dating back to last season, picking up a dub in their most-recent matchup a little over a week ago. The Hawks leaned on Trae Young heavily in that 4th quarter to close the game, finishing with 11 points in just 7:40 minutes of game time. They won’t have that luxury tonight, as their lead creator continues to rehab a right knee sprain.

Injury Report:

ORL: Out — Mo Wagner (left knee recovery)

ATL: Out — Trae Young (right knee sprain)

Rest Advantages:

ORL: 2 days of rest, ATL: 1 day of rest w/travel

Projected Starters:

ORL: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.

ATL: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, Kristaps Porziņģis

Orlando’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Atlanta’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Atlanta’s Offense vs Orlando’s Defense

Orlando’s defense hasn’t been quite as oppressive as years past, but a look at their defensive shot profile indicates that they are still one of the best defensive units in the league. The Magic are elite at funneling shooters into lower value midrange/floater shots, which suppresses 3-point attempts at the 2nd-highest rate in the league.

A general principle among NBA teams is to NEVER help-off the strongside2 corner, a tactic the Magic take to the extreme since their personnel mainly consists of stout individual defenders. Notice how Tristan Da Silva completely turns his back to the ball once Maxey picks up his dribble.

Orlando will rarely show help on drives as a whole, trusting their guys to hold up without forcing the defense to rotate. This further suppresses drive & kick opportunities, forcing opponents to try and score over & through some of the strongest guys in the league. ORL also has the privilege of employing several proficient rebounders at the guard position, which allows the Magic to deny put-back opportunities on the possessions their bigs contest shots. The offensive glass isn’t much of a weapon for ATL3, but the Hawks bigs need to be aware of how Orlando’s guards will tip away rebounds like in the clip below.

Orlando’s defense excels at turning games into rockfights, which makes possessions like the one below absolutely essential. Inverted PNR will be a big weapon for ATL tonight, using NAW/Dyson/Luke as a screener to attack the few weakspots in ORl’s defense. Forcing a guard to try and contain Jalen in space is a great way to pull Orlando’s weakside defenders into a help position, which can allow for Mo Gueye to be active on the glass & generate extra possessions.

Orlando’s Offense vs Atlanta’s Defense

Anyone who’s watched the Hawks this season would probably be shocked to learn they are the FIFTH best half-court defensive team in the association. That may seem unbelievable, especially considering they are 17th in overall DRTG, but the truth is despite some communication issues, ATL has been extremely solid on D if they can set their defense. The problem is when the defense ISN’T set, which is how they rank 29th in transition defense.

I’ve belabored this point for months and I’ll continue to point to this flaw until it’s rectified: the Hawks have really, really struggled against size. Transition play leads to cross-matches, where bigger wings have feasted on an assortment of weaker Hawks defenders. The lack of size is also evident in the half-court, where the Hawks are allowing an unimaginably high 36.4 OREB%, pointing to a lack of weakside rebounding once their bigs are engaged. In their 1st matchup, ORL turned a THIRD of their missed shots into putback opportunities. The Magic attack this glass far too aggressively to leave just 1 man to keep them off the glass. The boxing-out has to start with the guards.

Desmond Bane has struggled mightily to start the season, shooting just 24% from 3, though just his mere presence has helped to optimize Paolo Banchero’s shot profile.

“They finally have their guard ballhandler that’s a dual-threat as a pull-up shooter and PNR operator, which should in theory allow Paolo’s finishing playtypes to make up more than 33% of his overall shot diet. He rolled to the basket just 7% and 5% of the time over the last 2 years, increasing that frequency above 10% would do wonders for opening up the rest of his game. If he buys in as a screener and adjusts his points of attack further down the floor as opposed to isoing from the top of the key, I think we could see Paolo replicate the jump Randle made when Brunson put on a Knicks jersey.” From my 30 teams, 30 days Magic preview

Paolo’s averaging a career-high 39% rim frequency (FINALLY!!!) and he’s on pace to double his roll-man volume from last season. While that’s lead to a better shot diet, Banchero’s intrinsic inefficiencies should still allow this Hawks team to defend hime effectively.

Drawing fouls is a massive part of this ORL offense, playing 38% of their minutes in the bonus (1st) while drawing free-throws at the 2nd-highest rate in the league. This is how the Magic try and survive in the half-court, using Paolo & Franz’s brute force to put pressure on the rim. Because Paolo doesn’t have a ton of lift as a roller, the Hawks need to be disciplined to contest strictly with verticality, leaning on their length to do most of the work.

ORL will use off-ball screens to get Franz/Paolo downhill off the catch, often using away screens like in the clip below to try and make larger defenders navigate screens. This “Wide Screen” action is highly effective when a guard sets the screen, as it makes it impossible for a team to switch a small onto a stampeding Banchero or Wagner. ATL's bigs need to be aware of this action and their guards need to leave space on these screens for Onyeka/Jalen/Gueye to meet Paolo at the catch.

Key Action for the Hawks:

The only way to generate advantages against a strong half-court defense without an elite isolation scorer is off of movement. Sets like Chicago action4 that generate switches and make Orlando’s bigger players guard on the move will be paramount, expect plenty of looks for Kennard & NAW out of alignments like this.

The Verdict

If this game comes down to crunch time, it’s likely Orlando will be able to out-execute the Hawks. Conversely, if Atlanta is able to ramp up the ball pressure even more than they did in their 1st matchup (season-high transition frequency out of steals) they may able to steal another win.

Let me know your thoughts on the formatting and information covered in this post! I’m looking to improve this publication in every way as the season goes along.