Apologies for getting this post out after tip! Hopefully you all can still gian some insights during the first timeout!

The Hawks get another early-season rematch, getting the chance to redeem themselves from the shellacking they endured in the opening game of the season at the hands of the Raptors. Atlanta led for a grand total of 33 seconds in that loss, with the Raptors lead peaking at 29 points. Despite that margin, ATL is favored by Vegas tonight, likely due to their performances against Orlando.

Injury Report:

ATL: Out — Trae Young (Right Knee)

TOR: N/A

Rest Advantages:

ATL: 2 days of rest, TOR: 2 days of rest

Projected Starters:

ATL: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, Kristaps Porzingis

TOR: Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Brandon Ingram, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl

Atlanta’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Toronto’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Atlanta’s Offense vs Toronto’s Defense

While the Raptors were able to cause problems for the Hawks in the opener, the Raptors defense as a whole hasn’t exactly been stifling. They’re still forcing a ton of turnovers, but they’re also fouling a ton and allowing lots of shots at the rim.

That’s great news for the Hawks, who rank 7th and 5th in Rim & FT Rate respectively. Jakob Poeltl has quietly been one of the better rim protectors in the league, but is currently averaging a career high foul% on contest (14%) and 5.1 shooting fouls per 100. Porzingis’ 3P gravity should be a point of emphasis for the Hawks halfcourt attack, as Poeltl has struggled containing his fellow centers off the dribble.

Toronto is so aggressively defensively, which can lead to the POA being out of position after sitting in heavy gap help or chasing a steal. Poetl doesn’t NEED to be this disconnected from the roller with BI’s heavy help, so the Hawks need to be active off-ball to attack the extremely tilted defense on drives & PNRs.

Toronto’s Offense vs Atlanta’s Defense

Brandon Ingram had his way with anyone the Hawks threw on him in their previous matchup. He’s an incredibly effective scorer when he’s allowed to get to his spots, ATL will need to do their work early to deny entries and push him further up the floor.

Toronto’s offense is in the top 5 for the first time since 2022 because Ingram has been so strong as a half-court creator, but they are still heavily reliant on transition play and cuts to score effectively. They are 4th in transition frequency via the NBA stats site, but rank FIRST when you filter out garbage-time. This game can get ugly fast if ATL’s transition defense is as fragmented as it was on the 22nd.

The weakside defense will have to be better than it was vs the Cavs tonight, with the Raptors collective size necessitating that Jalen & Zacch are engaged and active off-ball.

Key Action for the Hawks:

I’ll always advocate for playing through the bigs, especially against a team that’s pretty much guaranteed to pressure ATL’s guards as much as possible. On this possession, ATL uses Jalen in a pinch alignment to craft a cut for Nickeil off an away screen. Notice the alignment Quin opted to use here, placing Zacch & KP in the corners maximizes spacing by vacating the middle of the floor, putting Wendell (ORL’s rim protector) on the weak side to keep him far away from the impending cut.

The Verdict

As mentioned, the Hawks will need to give themselves a chance by being disciplined with their transition defense. This Raptors team hasn’t been strong enough on D to make ATL struggle, so I’m anticipating a clutch game tonight.

Let me know your thoughts on the formatting and information covered in this post! I’m looking to improve this publication in every way as the season goes along.