Injury Report:

ATL: Out — Trae Young (right knee surgery), Zaccharie Risacher (left hip contusion), Kristaps Porzingis (Right Knee Soreness)

DET: Out — Jaden Ivey (return to play conditioning), Bobi Klintman (left ankle sprain), Caris Levert (left ankle sprain), Marcus Sasser (right hip impingement), Tobias Harris (Right Ankle Sprain

Rest Advantages:

ATL: 1 day of rest, DET: 0 days of rest w/ travel

Projected Starters:

ATL: Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Mouhamed Gueye, Onyeka Okongwu

DET: Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, Isaiah Stewart, Jalen Duren

Atlanta’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Detroit’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Atlanta’s Offense vs Detroit’s Defense

The Trae Young-less Hawks have been rolling, but they face by far their biggest test tonight. Detroit’s defense has been unbelievable suppressing opponent’s rim attempts, while forcing turnovers at the highest rate in the league.

Through the 1st 3 years of his career, Jalen Duren’s deficiencies on defense were hidden behind his chiseled frame and massive blocks. It’s hard to look at a person with that level of athleticism and see a negative defender, but the tape (or the sheets!) doesn’t reward aesthetics. Now that pendulum has begun to shift, as Duren has vastly improved his positioning BUT he still has a fouling issue when contesting shots at the rim.

Duren is at his most susceptible defending off the ball, where timely dives and cuts can expose his struggles playing the cat & mouse game. Detroit is aggressive sending help and shrinking the floor, which provides opportunities to pair lifts and dives to force Duren into conflict.

Detroit as a whole fouls a ton, ranking 2nd highest in opponent FT rate, which is the tradeoff of their hyper aggressive defensive style. They can defend so aggressively because nobody wants to challenge an Isaiah Stewart/Jalen Duren combo at the rim, which truncates driving lanes that are normally available vs other teams.

Atlanta’s bigs, particularly Jalen Johnson & Onyeka need to attack decisively out of pop/slip scenarios where they can catch Duren recovering and/or flatfooted. OO’s growth as a driver is huge here, as DET loves to mix in traps/blitzes on-ball while leaning on their size to clean up everything at the rim. There will be a help defender there more often than not, which will require ATL to go up strong every time.

Detroit’s Offense vs Atlanta’s Defense

The #1 concern for Atlanta tonight absolutely has to be the offensive glass. The defensive glass has been ATL’s biggest weakness all season, a foreboding signal for this matchup vs the 2nd best offensive-rebounding team in the league (in the halfcourt).

Duren is priority #1 here, but all 3 of Detroit’s bigs average at least 3.5 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes. The biggest challenge is limiting their double-big lineups, as Beef Stew is a commanding enough shooter to draw opposing bigs out of the paint, leaving Duren to clean the glass on any misses.

This synergy between Stewart/Duren & the Pistons’ overall positional size is what led me to project Mo Gueye in the starting lineup, as a “triple-big” look for Atlanta is worth a shot vs DET’s jumbo frontcourt.

Generally speaking, the Pistons’ offense isn’t overwhelmingly strong. They win games by grinding teams out on defense first, relying on tough shotmaking from Cade & extra possession generation from their bigs to do the heavy-lifting on O. Anytime DET places Ron/Ausar in the weakside corner as they run Spread PNR, ATL needs to have that low-man shaded over much more than Jabari Walker is in the clip below, incentivizing Cade to throw that skip pass instead of attacking the middle of the floor.

Key Action for the Hawks:

No KP means another fallback offensive option off the table for Atlanta, but it also allows them to lean into Onyeka’s DHo facilitation. This action starts with “Wide Curl”1 and then flows into Zoom action2 mixed in with some Throw & Chase3 from Onyeka. ATL doesn’t have their players who singlehandedly put defenses into rotation, so making Detroit navigate this much subsequent DHOs and PNRs can help to create advantages.

The Verdict

This would’ve been an excellent measuring-stick game if Risacher/KP were healthy, as the rest of the Hawks will have their hand full. Cade has historically had his way against Atlanta, I’ll be monitoring how Nickeil’s presence impedes his stampedes to the cup.