It’s crazy how much can happen in 3 weeks in the NBA. Spurs fans were jumping for joy when Trae went down, posting Tankathon screenshots that sparked the possibility of the Spurs adding YET another T3 pick to their core, courtesy of the Hawks. 20 days later & it’s San Antonio who’s reeling from a long-term injury to their franchise cornerstone, with the Hawks poised to send them further down the standings tonight.

Injury Report:

ATL: Out — Trae Young (right knee surgery)

SAS: Out — Victor Wembanyama (left calf strain), Dylan Harper (left calf strain), Stephon Castle (left hip flexor), Jordan McLaughlin (left hamstring)

Rest Advantages:

ATL: 1 day of rest, SAS: 1 day of rest w/ travel

Projected Starters:

ATL: Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu

SAS: De’Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet

Atlanta’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Spurs’ Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Atlanta’s Offense vs Spurs’ Defense

It goes without saying, but the Spurs are a completely different team with Wembanyama off the floor on defense.

The aggregate metrics paint a T5 defense who’s defending the rim at the best rate in the league, but Wemby’s presence is driving most of that value. Among players with 400+ mins played thus far, Wemby’s -8.9% rim frequency ranks 3rd (behind Ridy GOATbert & Jaren Jackson Jr).

ATL’s rim frequency has DECLINED as of late, falling all the way to 13th before tonight’s game. They were 7th prior to their game vs the Jazz, with the % of rim FGA decreasing -1.6% in about a week.

Vit Krejci, Onyeka Okongwu & Jalen Johnson all catching fire at the same time is a significant part of this trend. Jalen in particular looks much more comfortable getting a decent amount of 3s up per game, finding success on these ghost screen handoffs. Generally speaking, Jalen’s shot seems to be more consistent when he’s creating off the dribble.

That pendulum needs to swing back towards rim pressure FIRST in tonight’s matchup, where Luke Kornet is still formidable, but the Spurs’ questionable perimeter defense should provide bountiful opportunities to force him to overhelp.

Spurs’ Offense vs Atlanta’s Defense

It goes without saying, but the Spurs are a completely different team with Wembanyama off the floor on defense.

Wemby’s gravity forces rotations no matter where he is on the court. He can command double teams before even touching the ball with GSW opting to shade 2 towards Victor before Champagnie even picked up the ball. This provided ample opportunities for high-quality corner 3s via exit/hammer screens for the Spurs’ corner 3P specialists.

These opportunities just won’t be there tonight, which should allow Atlanta to guard the Spurs’ last standing on-ball threat, De’Aaron Fox, incredibly aggressively. You never, ever, see teams help off the strong-side corner like in the clip below, but this type of box & elbows defense is actually viable against this current iteration of the Spurs.

Key Action for the Hawks:

Priority #1 for Atlanta should be forcing Kornet to step out of the paint on defense, something both KP and Onyeka are fully capable of. This cross screen reject out of Horns Out was an inventive way to use Onyeka’s 3P gravity to force a long closeout from Duren, Vit just needed to clear out quicker to open the lane for a wide-open drive.

The Verdict

This is one of those games where the Hawks need to take care of business. Zacch and KP back gives them an overwhelming offensive advantage.