Hello everyone, thank you to those who have supported me in this new expansion of my NBA coverage! I’m going to be rolling out new features throughout this week, starting with my matchup previews!

As an Atlanta native and die-hard fan turned analyst & credentialed reporter, you can expect previews for every Hawks game, diving into everything you need to know to be prepared and informed for every single game. On days where ATL isn’t playing, I’ll release a preview for a select game from that night’s slate. As our community grows, I’ll post polls the night before and focus on the game that you, the reader, want to get my analysis and thoughts on. Let’s get to it.

Injury Report:

CHA: Questionable — Tre Mann (Jaw Contusion), Out — Josh Green (L Shoulder), Grant Williams (R Knee), Brandon Miller (L Shoulder Subluxation)

MIA: Probable — Simone Fontecchio (Left Calf Soreness), Questionable — Norman Powell (Right Groin Soreness), Out — Terry Rozier (Gambling), Tyler Herro (Left Ankle Surgery), Kasparas Jakucionis (Right Groin Strain)

Rest Advantages:

CHA: 1 day of rest w/ travel, MIA: 1 day of rest w/travel

Projected Starters:

CHA: LaMelo Ball, Collin Sexton, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Ryan Kalkbrenner

MIA: Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Kel’el Ware

Charlotte’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Miami’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Miami’s Offense vs Charlotte’s Defense

The Heat and Hornets have both came out the gates firing on all cylinders on offense, ranking in the top 10 in halfcourt scoring efficiency. Charlotte had the WORST set offense in the league last year, scoring just 0.9 points per 100 possessions in the halfcourt (league average last year was .98), but are currently ranked as the 4th best HC offense in the league (1.07).

These ranking come with a small sample caveat (and competition, CHA has played BKN & WAS for 2 of their 3 games so far), but there are interesting indicators that these teams have built a competent offensive attack.

All of the smart Heat fans & writers I follow on Twitter have been raving about the drastic differences in Miami’s offense this year, an adjustment that is underscored by the Heat virtually abandoning on-ball screening actions. The pick & roll was a staple in Miami’s offense last year, making up 22.5% of their playtypes. Through 3 games played, that frequency has dropped significantly just 8.7% of their possessions. MIA is the ONLY team in the league with ZERO roll-man possessions so far.

I was anticipating Miami to adjust their offense in Herro’s absence, but this shift to a heavy drive and kick offense WITHOUT ramping up their handoff/screen volume is fascinating. MIA is currently 1 of 12 teams that’s averaging 50+ drives a game, ranking 4th in % of possessions that result in points.

No one’s benefitted from this philosophy shift more than Jaime Jaquez Jr, who has thrived in a more up-tempo, random style of offense. This style suits this roster, as Norm, Wiggs, Davion, Jovic, Fontecchio, etc. are all capable of getting downhill without a screen. Bam’s virtually the only rotation player who hasn’t see success, shooting just 37.9% on 2s and 37% on jumpers overall.

It’s likely Bam continues to struggle from 2P range tonight, as Charlotte has been one of the best rim protecting teams in the league, thanks to Ryan Kalkbrenner and Moussa Diabete. That free-flowing style has led to some high TO games for Miami, a weakness Charlotte may not be able to attack due to their lack of ability to force turnovers. CHA’s defense has also conceded long-midrange jumpers at one of the highest rates in the league, a typically viable defensive principle that may require an adjustment against Miami, as Norm, Wiggins and JJJ have shot excepetionally well on midrange jumpers.

Charlotte’s Offense vs Miami’s Defense

Tonight’s game will test both team’s 3P luck, with the Hornets MAKING 3s at the 4th-best clip in the association (40.7%) and the Heat DEFENDING 3s at the 2nd-best clip (30.5%). It’s reasonable to expect Miami’s “Jedi defense” to regress a bit tonight, considering they’ve allowed opponents to attempt 3s at the 6th highest-rate in the league and they’re facing one of the best 3P prospects in the last 20 years, who’s shooting 57.9% on his 19 3PA so far.

Knueppel has been heavily featured in Charlotte’s offense, exhibiting some awesome synergy with Lamelo Ball. CHA frequently initiates up their early offense with Kon setting a blur/ghost screen for Lamelo, forcing the defense to contemplate switching before slipping the screen and flaring out to the wing.

CHA will use this to try and create release valves for Lamelo, who will be matched up with MIA’s best on-ball defender, Davion Mitchell. Norm is certainly capable of moving his feet, but CHA will test his ability to defend multiple actions consecutively all night. The Hornets are using that same brush/ghost screen tactic on this place, with the additional wrinkle of Kalkbrenner setting an initial down screen for Knueppel. This leaves WAS’ defense utterly confused, sending 2 to the ball vs Lamelo while leaving Kon wide open.

MIA should play Lamelo in single coverage as much as possible, leaning on Davion’s screen navigation to prevent their big from having to defend up the floor. CHA will need to counter by introducing some weakside action to engage MIA’s double-big look, making it tougher for Ware/Bam to help on any dives to the rim.

Key Action for the Heat:

Because Miami is running so much random offense, their biggest “key action” is moreso related to spacing principles/floor balance. In the clip below, Jaime begins his drive with 2 teammates stacked in the strongside corner, the type of spacing that will get his shot blocked tonight with Kalkbrenner/Diabate at the rim.

Compare that spacing to the clip below, where Miami utilizes “wheel” principles to vacate the help from Jaime’s driving lane. Watch Wiggins in particular, his baseline cut combined with every other player lifting forces Brunson to be the “low man”, the closest defender to the rim.

The Verdict

I’m mostly watching to see whose offense holds up tonight, as the Hornets have yet to face a strong defensive team, while the Heat’s ORTG is inflated by a massive blowout win over Memphis.

Let me know your thoughts on the formatting and information covered in this post! I’m looking to improve this publication in every way as the season goes along.