Wembanyma v Luka. #2 seed vs #3 seed. Top 5 defense v Top 5 offense. ESPN’s nightcap game should be a thrilling watch, bolstered by a showdown between 2 of the league’s leading MVP candidates.

Injury Report:

LAL: Out — LeBron James (sciatica), Gabe Vincent (left ankle), Adou Thiero (knee), Maxi Kleber (abdonimal), Austin Reaves (groin)

SAS: Out — Dylan Harper (calf), De’Aaron Fox (hamstring), Luke Kornet (left ankle), Questionable — Kelly Olynk (left heel), Jeremy Sochan (left wrist), Lindy Waters (eye)

Rest Advantages:

LAL: 1 day of rest, SAS: 2 day of rest w/ travel

Projected Starters:

LAL: Luka Doncic, Marcus Smart, Jake Laravia, Rui Hachimura, DeAndre Ayton

SAS: Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Victor Wembanyama

Los Angeles’ Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

San Antonio’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Los Angeles’ Offense vs San Antonio’s Defense

Luka & Victor are completely diametrically opposed franchise cornerstones. Doncic’s offensive gifts allow his teams to place defenders around him that he can elevate as play-finishers, while Wemby’s defensive gifts *should* allow San Antonio to trade some POA defense for shot creation. They will hardly defend one another, but they both have so much influence over their respective sides of the floor that it’s highly likely that the winner of this game will be determined by the superstar who dominates their domain.

As one may expect, the Spurs protect the rim AND the paint better than any other team. San Antonio is 2nd in Rim FG% while allowing the 8th lowest frequency of shots at the rim, holding teams to the fewest points in the paint per game in the league (39.7). The Spurs seamlessly pass off assignments to keep Wemby as close to the rim as possible, even against heavy motion teams like Miami. Watch how Victor sends McCaughlin to the corner to check the opposing CENTER — something most teams would never want to happen — but Wemby senses a drive coming and knows he can blanket the rim & any potential dumpoff.

The thing is though, the Lakers may be equally as proficient at SCORING in the paint as the Spurs (well really, Wemby) are at DEFENDING in the paint. LA is shooting a preposterous 62% on the 5th most paint attempts per game, lighting the nets on fire from the restricted area to just inside the 3P line. Luka has just decided he won’t miss in the paint, shooting 34/41 in that sweet spot.

Ayton has been a seamless fit with Doncic’s & Reaves’ methodical playstyle, positioning himself as a highly effective release valve 10ish feet away from the basket.

Bam was able to score with relative effectiveness in that painted area against Wemby, though Miami was able to use him as a driver in their motion offense, he wasn’t quite as effective as a roller. It’ll be fascinating to see how Wemby plays the cat and mouse game as Luka makes his way downhill with Ayton trailing for a signature push shot.

San Antonio’s Offense vs Los Angeles’ Defense

Playing physical defense against Wembanyama with a wing/stout guard with a big-man lurking on the backline isn’t a novel coverage, evidenced by Dillon Brooks and the Canadian national team holding Wemby to just 7 points on 10 FGA back in the Olympics, but the Suns executed that scheme better than anyone else this season so far.

The Suns guarded Wemby with Royce O’Neale, which negates Wemby’s speed advantage vs traditional centers, then had their 5 show aggressively on any post-ups Wemby tried to get to. This isn’t an overly complicated scheme, but it is highly effective when those swing passes to the corner & the wing aren’t the best close-out drivers/live-dribble playmakers.

This sounds like a job for Marcus Smart, though I wonder if the Lakers will be organized enough to pull off such a scheme. San Antonio’s on-ball creation is minimal with the Fox & Harper injuries, so these aggressive doubles should be written in bold on LA’s gameplan.

Wemby is posting up nearly 5 times per game, which is tops in the league in terms of volume, but the Spurs may want to rethink where they begin an action featuring Wemby with teams defending him so aggressively. He’s destroyed teams attacking from the perimeter, ranking 2nd in points added on isolation possessions, so it would behoove SA to mix in some inverted PNR and FT line touches to give Victor the ability to attack the Lakers defense without having his back to the basket.

Key Action for the Spurs:

This is less of an action and more of an overall principle — Wembanyama will need to be decisive anytime he posts up. He won’t have the time to pound the ball, but will need to make quick decisions like he did in the clip below, while sprinkling in some eye manipulation to create quality looks for his shooters.

The Verdict

This is an electric matchup that’s somewhat dampened by Harper’s calf injury, though I suspect San Antonio’s defense can keep them in the game just enough to bless us with some clutch sequences.

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