Nile! Presents 2024 NBA Draft Master Notes

The 2024 NBA Draft Notes from NileHoops.

Nile! Presents 2024 NBA Draft Master Notes

I found no greater joy over the past year than in the hobby of following college and professional basketball with the intent of perfecting NBA Draft analysis. These are my notes while crafting my ideas. I hope they are enjoyed by all.

Note that there are varying levels of detail on notes regarding players, as my information collection was sometimes unrecorded, with any given player’s oeuvre being more important than any minuscule note I amassed (also I lost some of them lol). The use of BartTorvik queries is prevalent in my notes, as my extensive (100+) backlog would indicate.

True thanks to everyone I held any dialogue with or sacrificed time with to master this craft, you mean a lot to me. Please enjoy.

25) Matas Buzelis

The low-end outcome is out of the league after his rookie contract. His impact stats at Ignite were truly abysmal, there’s a fair chance he can’t shoot, et al.
The mid-level outcome is Jaden McDaniels, but the true Jaden McDaniels. A positive defender due to length and solid timing whose offensive hype is strictly based on high school tape. There will be a constant fascination for Matas to ‘take a shooting leap’ and calls for him to get more touches so he can replicate his above-average mid-range pull-up (this will never be a good possession for an NBA team even if he continues to shoot around 44%, as a 44% two-point field goal attempt is a .88 PPP possession.)

The exciting high-end is emphasizing Buzelis’ physical development in the direction of being a 5/4 hybrid long-term, specializing in basically everything Maxi Kleber did at his peak. There is a 1% chance that he’s able to leverage the faint wing skills he has and turn into some sort of high-leverage creator.

24) Terrence Shannon Jr
23) Riley Minix
22) Anton Watson

Watson will be a 24-year-old rookie (one of five players 23+ in their rookie season in my top 25. This should be embraced, as Covid years and NIL allowed better talent to stay in the NCAA for longer.)

8.3 BPM (4.4 OBPM, 3.7 DBPM) over 149 games
Kinda Brandon Clarke

Not Joel Ayayi (in that some Gonzaga archetypes have very evident holes in their profiles, but the pessimism shouldn’t be assigned to every player)

6'7.5 no shoes, 7'0 wingspan, 8'9 standing reach, 233 lbs

Gary Clark (6'6 no shoes, 6'10 wingspan, 8'10 Standing Reach, 219 lbs (I would have also had him high. Watson is more practical)

Cody Martin/Terence Mann/Jae’Sean Tate show a pattern

If not an NBA player due to perceived flaws, will likely dominate in a high-level overseas league.

21) Rob Dillingham

The only players to ‘beat’ sub-6'3, >4.5 fouls per 40, <2.6 STL%, and <.75 BLK% as freshmen and turn notable pro careers were Markus Howard, one of the best shooters on Earth(who would probably be a plus offensive NBA player today, but being that bad on D is so challenging) and Donovan Mitchell, who has a 6'10 wingspan compared to Dillingham’s 6'3, went back to school for his sophomore season and jumped to 1.7 BLK%, 3.7 STL%, and only 3.2 fouls per 40.

Other players that ‘beat’ the Rob Dill trifecta include Frank Mason, Tim Frazier, and Davion Mitchell. Woof.

Dillingham played about 19 percent of his minutes without Reed Sheppard. Kentucky was the 329th-ranked defensive team in the country by luck-adjusted points per 100 (113.9) across these 266 defensive possessions. Compare this to the 30th-best in the 1000-plus possessions Sheppard and Dillingham shared (97.5). 266 possessions over a 33-game sample only equal about eight possessions per game, and D.J Wagner, Antonio Reeves, Tre Mitchell, and Justin Edwards all played 100+ of the disaster possessions, but poor defensive indicators are massive for Dillingham.

Expecting anything near a top-10 return (he’s placed fifth in Mike Grib’s consensus project) would require Dillingham to be one of the best offensive guards in basketball somewhat quickly. I’d consider this possible, yet not probable by any means. Aside from him being one of the smallest, youngest primary ball handlers (the most load-bearing offensive slot in the game) in the league, Dillingham’s play at Kentucky wasn’t groundbreaking enough to predict immediate returns. His lack of consistency is the main fear. He posted a five or better Offensive Box Plus-Minus in 17 of his 32 games, but this sample of games includes:

Illinois State
Stonehill
Marshall
New Mexico State
two games versus “0–18 in SEC play” Mizzou
two more games versus “4–14 in SEC play” Vandy
Penn
St. Joseph’s 
15–17 Miami
A pretty weak LSU

Weeding out opponents of irrelevant strength leaves us with explosions versus Tennessee, Kansas (in only 16 minutes), Texas A&M, South Carolina, Alabama, and Gonzaga (every UK guard abused Nembard/Hickman to a solid OBPM this game, aside from DJ Wagner) that ended in a cumulative 1–5 record.

Compare this to the season of 2018 Collin Sexton, who posted a seven or better offensive BPM in 17 of his 33 games. Nine of the Alabama guard’s games were versus top 50 opponents, with a weak Georgia, Vandy, and Minnesota (the infamous ‘three versus five’ game where Sexton scored 40) on the outskirts.

There is a more than fair argument that Sexton (commonly known as one of the worst guard defenders in the NBA) has not returned his draft value, especially before his Will Hardy-aided 2024 season ended (where he ranked in the 89th percentile of EPM/top 30 in the NBA in Offensive Darko Plus-Minus). Dillingham is the same draft age, with a much worse physical profile than Sexton.

Finally, Dillingham’s rim aversion and lack of foul drawing make successful offensive impact even less projectable. Even as a very good non-rim 2-point shotmaker (43% on 104 attempts, 77.8 percent of his makes unassisted), they’re all worth two points. The likelihood of being fouled on a pull-up midrange shot is lower than being fouled at the rim. Tiny, worse D’Angelo Russell or a more successful Tyrell Terry (who was very weak in the G-League before his retirement) would be my best guesses for his career, returning neutral career BPM numbers with his defense yanking his positive offensive metrics into place.

20) Devin Carter

This!

Great 2024 on-offs but his backups were Garwey Dual and Jayden Pierre, who are bad

2023 on-offs had Providence better on defense when Carter was off the court/2022 on-offs saw the same at South Carolina (team rebounding was an emphasis, there was not that much of a loss when he was off)

Learned how to shoot in one season (with a high degree of difficulty)

Carter’s career AST+AST:TO+non-rim 2 numbers equal not an NBA point, as shown here

22-year-old guards who aren’t marksmen and don’t run elite offenses aren’t premier prospects

6'4 with shoes, 6-foot-9 wingspan

Older than Shead, Simpson, Dalen Terry, Blake Wesely, etc etc

19) Cam Spencer

18) Johnny Furphy
17) Ron Holland

Holland’s primary indicators of success are age and volume-based, which are dually extremely valuable in analysis and not enough to convince me he will be a high-end NBA starter. It’s cool and predictive that he attempted 18 field goals per 36 and recorded a 3+ STL percentage in the G-League.

He was also shockingly bad in the halfcourt and obtained an unsustainable percentage of his points in transition.

The similarities between Ron Holland and Maurice Harkless’ freshman season at St. John’s are radical and lead me to believe, among the other issues in his game (shooting, defensive impact, making teams better), that he will fail to live up to the loftier expectations some have retained from his high school ‘hustleball’ days.

Other than a difference in high-school rankings (Holland a top-5 recruit, Harkless closer to the 50th slot), a ten-pound advantage for Harkless and notably better passing figures for Holland (1 AST:TO ratio to Harkless’ .6 is significant), notable differences are few and far between. Harkless’ five-year peak saw him playing as a below-average 3PAr combo forward who got a large portion (usually around 16 percent of his points would come in transition per season, similar to Holland’s in his Ignite year) of his points in transition.

Holland could return even better value than a career 4.1 VORP if his passing value translates as a positive skill, though I’m not holding my breath.

Furphy’s value will conceptually stem from wing play-finishing (generating most of his offense via waiting for players with more gravity/vision to bend defenses and capitalize on cuts and C&S attempts), and there aren’t many 6'8 20-year-olds that go on a sustained run of 17 games shooting 70% true shooting (even if on moderate volume). After his 2–7, four-point performance in a loss @ Kansas State on Feb. 5th, Furphy never got back on track, shooting only 53.6 TS% over the final 11 games for the Jayhawks, but his on-off value did not drag.

Carrying a 12-point swing for a sputtering 4-seed while posting sub-optimal stats is a (very noisy) sample of positive impact. Compare this to Ron Holland, who amassed 20.6 PPG on 54 TS% over his final 14 regular season games with Ignite with a 1.4-point swing! Account for competition level at your discretion, but Tyler Smith posted a 6.9 swing in the same session, on the same team.

Holland’s outlook has more ‘upside’ than Furphy’s, but the risk of drafting Josh Jackson (with who Holland shares a handful of negative indicators) with the hopes of drafting Jaylen Brown (the worst ‘star’ archetype in the league) goes against my preferences if done with a pick of high value. Furphy’s lack of shooting volume is the biggest fear for him to fail, as volume is more predictive than makes and misses when making long-term projections.

16) N’Faly Dante

Arguably the best non-Edey player in CBB after returning from injury, sadly Dante has constantly been returning from injuries since his freshman season.
7'6 wingspan
BLK/STL/OREB/DREB/DUNK/NON-DUNK RIM%S are all amazing
He’s too good at all of the integral aspects of playing as a rim-based 5 to deny. 
As good as a multi-year big that doesn’t get to the line/make FTs/pass can be
Less theoretical, evident box-score impact players naturally need less explanation.

15) Isaiah Collier
14) Jamal Shead

The long-term two-way proficiency Shead has shown at Houston versus Collier’s youth, positional size, and outlier indicators is a worthy contrast to ponder. Situationally, I’d prefer Collier in a team context that requires a guard that can frequently touch the paint that could protect against shooting gravity deficiencies, whereas Shead’s primary deficit (size) would be concealed best on a team that’s emphasized length in their principles.

Collier is the only ‘big guard’ true FR (6'3+) to record 140 FTA+110 total assists in under 850 minutes since 1987. Baron Davis and Edmond Sumner did it in their SO-age season.

His poor FT/3PT indicators don’t come with underlying promise but are not bad enough to ruin him as an offensive prospect due to his strong abilities to get to the rim and either get fouled or finish.

Outside of Baldwin, the only awful outcome of this group is Dennis Smith Jr, who had zero midrange counter. Collier’s 40% on non-rim 2s ranks first by percentage of the sample group, on a somewhat small sample due to games missed and no tournament runs. 
The decisiveness/skill in not settling for mid-range jumpers (which are structurally bad offense, as we went over in the Dillingham section, and as James Harden, Mike D’Antoni, and Daryl Morey taught us in their time together) is evident in his rim/non-rim 2PA ratio being second-highest only behind a ridiculous season by mid-major Ja Morant.

Collier’s low totals in rebounding, blocks, dunks, and (most importantly) Box Plus-Minus give reason for skepticism, but his level of team success (83rd in bballref’s Simple Rating System) and immediate coaching change upon season’s end indicates that there may not have been a freshman in the country with the ability to protect the Trojans from failure. Even then, his on-off indicators show that he put up an effort. Note the vast differences in offensive frequency and efficiency around the rim when Collier played.

The threshold for NBA-caliber guard play is so extreme that a player with multiple glaring holes in his profile (the aforementioned issues along with low vertical leap and a short wingspan) sadly cannot be a lock to return positive slot value. The early stages of a ball-dominant young guard usually end up as net negatives, and Collier’s ball dominance and shooting reluctance make scaling off the ball questionable. If these issues are too prominent, a prospect like Darius Morris indicates that a short NBA career is probable.

EVEN if Shead’s new offensive role (next to other initiators) doesn’t improve his shot quality or shotmaking, he can still be a rotation-level PG (at worst)
Sub 6’3
Sub 53% TS 
VORP =0 
2 or more szns since 2018 
Ish Smith 
Marcus Smart 
Dennis Schroder 
Rubio 
Rozier 
Melton 
Cory Joseph 
Tyus Jones 
Aaron Holiday 
Kris Dunn

13) Baylor Scheierman

This is honestly all I need to be heavily in on B.Schei

12) Jonathan Mogbo
11) Alex Sarr

He couldn’t get on the court over these guys

It’s abnormal to draft bigs that played less than 750 minutes in their draft szn

Sarr/Claxton is a cop-out

Sarr’s physical profile is enticing but doesn’t mean as much if he doesn’t rebound or finish at the rim in the half-court

PLEASE take this excerpt from an ESPN article on a young, athletic big’s performance at an elite camp:

“(Big) is a tremendous shot blocker, with a nice shooting touch. He isn’t very effective yet with his back to the basket, lacking good footwork in the post. But he can turn and face the basket and shoot it, and he was working on his shooting range in (Home City) prior to the camp.

(Big) did hit a 3-pointer in the scrimmage — and that won’t be the last one he attempts here, either.
(Big) showed his ability to run the floor and can cover a lot of ground defensively. He has star quality…”

The profile is on an 18-year-old Tyson Chandler before the 2001 NBA Draft, where he was selected 2nd and forced to play next to non-congruent bigs due to a lack of strength and a hypothetical jumpshot. This could be about Sarr, or a handful of other false hybrid inside-out bigs we’ve seen throughout the 21st century.

Sarr’s current pathway will almost surely fail. He does not rebound or guard bigs outside pure shot-blocking well enough to play the 5. He could gain weight and emphasize crashing the glass to do this. This concept would likely tank his on-court value for the first few seasons but could end well, as it did for Tyson Chandler (note that it took playing with Chris Paul and Jason Kidd to extract any offensive value from Chandler.)

If Sarr has no interest in full-time rebounding or rim-running (even if his athletic tools should make this ideal), he will have to become a plus ball-handler and shooter, size-relative. He has a mediocre collection of shooting and handling indicators (film tracks), just enough for a sucker team to buy into and let him become a ‘big wing’.

It’s great that he’s 19 because a prospect even one year older with no straightforward archetype would be much more of a lost cause.

10) KJ Simpson

Only the sharpest draft analyst could have predicted anywhere near Simpson’s junior breakout. The following slightly over-picked query could have aided in predicting said breakout.

The inherent fear of drafting juniors without much previous draft hype/superior college success before their draft season is apparent (see Jalen Williams, Trey Murphy, Kyle Kuzma, Quinten Grimes, O-Max Prosper, etc), but most of those players help remove that worry from my process.

Simpson’s ability to sustain his junior shooting is integral to his NBA success, and his confidence shooting (27% on 201 attempts, 7.3 attempts per 100) as an underclassman, along with his consistently high FT% gives reason to believe.

Even with a middling jumpshot, Simpson will present a robust playmaking package with functional athleticism (dunks/DREB%/40-inch vert) that slots best next to other talented offensive weapons (DaSilva/Cody Williams/Hadley/Lampkin are below-average NBA prospects at best, but a pretty formidable Power 5 offensive ensemble)

Scotty Pippen Jr, Jr

9) Kel’el Ware
8) Jared McCain
7) Nikola Topic

Honestly do not have too many notes on these three, as I progressively grew my understanding of their games throughout the season, without any significant deep dives.

McCain’s impressive BPM versus top-40 teams (9.1, third behind Reed Sheppard and Owen Freeman) is a rather predictive indicator for freshmen to transition to successful NBA players.

I was rather low on Ware going into the season and even for a while during, and his ratio of rim to non-rim 2PA and low FTR indicate ‘softness’ in his game. His 3PAr in college was limited by necessity and scheme at Indiana, and I would have loved for him to get more consistent attempts. Rim-protecting 3-point shooters are extremely rare, as they're usually hypothetical, but Ware’s exemplary athletic testing and measurements along with being on the high-end of production (4th in underclassmen BPM) provide room for his jumper to never reach superb volume and still be a positive contributor.

6) Tyler Smith

Following are my early season TSmith notes (no more recent than early January), as I had everything I needed from there.

“TYLER SMITH”
16 G-league Showcase games
65.5% at the rim (38/58)
60.5% within 12 feet (49/81)
28.6% on 2s outside of 12 ft (6/21) (2/6 from left wing, 1/5 from straight, 3/10 from right wing)
4/7 on corner 3s
32.4% above the break 3s (12/37)
36.4% from 27+ feet (4/11)
85.6 Rim and 3s%

It would be nice to see TSmith take on a more substantial on-ball role this season, because there is an All-NBA upside, while it’s never the most likely outcome.
The alternative would be more screener reps, as the only screens I’ve seen him set were ghosts for pop opportunities.

59 TS%
25 USG
.316 estimated FTR (.158 FTR x2 for GL rules)
.299 3PAr, 6.7 3PA/100

13.2 AST%, 1.26 AST/TO,
9.1 OREB% (best of rotation players on team, t25 in g-league), 
12.4 DREB%

• *Offensive net rating diff -2.6 (below average on team, not great)**
• **Defensive net rating diff -10.3 (the best by far on the team, 7 better than Norris Cole @ -3.6, almost 20 points better than Holland/Almansa, 8 better than Matas)**
• ** 7.8 Net Rating Diff is 2nd on the team**
  1.1 DWS leads the team by far (in 5th most minutes)
• **Small sample size, need around 1000 minutes on and off to validate, still pretty good**

The Tyler Smith Spectrum
Based on his freshman age, usage (21.5), TS% (59), assist% (13.5), AST/TO (1.25), oreb% (9), dreb% (12), Block% (4), 3PT/100 (6.6), and Rim FG% (60)
WISCO FRANK KAMINSKY is the only player to go above in every stat but this took 4 years.

Usage=+, Shooting -, rim finishing+, Blocking shots -, playmaking + could look like Paolo (if he can sustain a large portion offensive volume and defensive attention, which he probably will never get the chance), Jett Howard (3 inches taller, so like the combo forward version, this is a possible outcome but Smith would have to double his 3PAr), or Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (another kinda close comp. I think Smith could be the bigger better version other than in rebounding)

Usage =+, TS-, rim finishing-, blocking shots=, playmaking=, FTR= and Jayson Tatum looks similar. Tatum’s rim/3s rate was somewhere between 64–66%, which is poor, and had to be forcibly removed from his game.

Usage=+, Shooting +, rim finishing+, Blocking shots -, playmaking — would look like Gordon Hayward/Lauri Markkanen (means he’ll lean towards being a supersized 3 to start his career)

Usage=+, Shooting +, rim finishing+, Blocking shots +, playmaking — looks like JJJ/Jalen Smith (7-FOOT SHOOTING GUARD!! Great archetype, not the most likely outcome though unless shot blocking output doubles+ for rest of season)

TENN JULIAN PHILLIPS is an approximate low-end

Kevin Knox has a similar shot profile, though TSmith’s defense/rebounding/playmaking are better

If I had to guess based on the data I have today
95th percentile: Tatum/Markkannen hybrid (All of this describes 6–11 Miles Bridges) (Equally a spot up and a lob threat on offense, and a weakside roamer on D. Good enough to be a secondary/tertiary playmaker at his peak. If prospect Markkannen was more active outside of scoring. Can play next to any archetype of bigs, very portable.) 
75th percentile Tall Miles Bridges
40th percentile Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
25th percentile “Good” NBA Kevin Knox
10th percentile Bad/Standard Kevin Knox

5) DaRon Holmes II

4) Kyle Filipowski

Not many notes on Filipowski. No exact comparisons work for the 7'0 wing. When he returns the same impact as a white, inverse Scottie Barnes, where the versatility would be more offense-leaning, but neutral at worse on both ends. Being that big/mobile/skilled is such a plus, as we see for all of the teams that employ the players below.

3) Reed Sheppard

2) Donovan Clingan

With the progress made over the last year, Clingan would have most likely been the 3rd player on my 2023 board, behind Wemby and BMills. His staying in college and making genuine improvements in only 300 more minutes of playing time allowed me to raise him.. one slot. My preseason notes on Clingan note him as a ‘Gafford/Poeltl/Zubac/Claxton’ hybrid’ while standing 7'2, predicting a consistently elite NBA center.

I now believe enough in Clingan to consider him the next step up of rim protector/deterrent giants, in the vein of Rudy Gobert, who led French Pro A in Block and True Shooting percentages at 20.5 years old before being drafted 27th (Gobert also ranked 7th in PER in LNB A, the league Zaccharie Risacher played in and ranked in the 70s this season.)

My summary for my master notes will highlight the twin peaks that my top two prospects (from the preseason up to draft day) reached to end the season.

Starting on February 10th, 2024, college basketball saw two of the best runs ever take part simultaneously.

Any truly elite NCAA draft prospect has a small, insane run of around 15 Box Plus-Minus play, whether it be a two-week, four-game heater or even as extreme as eight or nine games. Donovan Clingan and Zach Edey were able to do this for double that period while making National Championship runs.

1) Zach Edey

There’s a 7’5 player with a 7’11 wingspan (with virtually no injury history) that shoots 80% at the rim and 70% from the free throw line with a 60 free throw rate. This player also rebounds about 19% of his team’s misses. He also best uses his size defensively to deter rim attempts (his NCAA team ranked top 10 in lowest defensive rim frequency for the last 3 seasons during his minutes), but further aids defensive success with a 25 DREB%/7 BLK%/sub-3.5 fouls per 40. One would be hard-pressed to find a big prospect with two or three of these traits, and would rightfully be interested in them as a player worth putting priority draft capital into. Zach Edey’s combination of size, skillset, and production offers as convincing a floor as any big prospect in recent history.

Edey is a diversion from every modern star archetype of today. We have only a small sample of what offense that doesn’t directly run through him looks like. He surely benefitted from Matt Painter and his staff’s hyper-effective coaching. His career steal % is 0.6 and AST:TO of 0.7 are usually crucifying for any 22-year-old prospect. He’s only made one three-pointer and a handful of jump shots in his career. These are the extent of legitimate points against Edey being a top-tier impact player in the NBA.

Mostly everything else in his statistical profile indicates no less than an All-NBA player. At his floor, Edey projects as one of the best offensive rebounders and rim deterrents in the world, as well as a high-level rim-finisher/free-throw magnet with effective results. Doing all this while also being the largest player in the NBA during his first season, with fine agility measurements, clearly depicts a floor that mirrors a big that returns a positive value. 
The only multi-year player with a profile as impactful/dominant as Edey’s in the Bart era is arguably Stephen Curry, and he played a combined 17 games versus top-100 teams (by bball ref’s SRS metric) during his career.

Zach Edey played 30 games versus top-100 SRS teams during the 2024 season. Dominant production at the NCAA level from physical outliers was the delivery method for star players for much of basketball history. Even recently, Joel Embiid, Zion Williamson, and Anthony Davis have attempted to keep this legacy alive. Let Zach Edey be another step in a return to normalcy.