There are 4 teams that have a T10 defense and T10 offense this season, Oklahoma City, Houston, Phoenix (Jordan Ott is a savant) and the Denver Nuggets. Denver’s defense has held in their previous 2 games against top-10 offenses, but this Timberwolves team is the highest-powered offense they’ve faced yet, as Minny’s loss on the 27th came without Anthony Edwards.

Injury Report:

DEN: Out — Christian Braun (ankle), Cam Johnson (bicep), Questionable — Nikola Jokic (wrist)

MIN: N/A

Rest Advantages:

DEN: 2 days of rest, MIN: 0 days of rest

Projected Starters:

DEN: Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Peyton Watson, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic

MIN: Donte Divencenzo, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert

Denver’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Minnesota’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Minnesota’s Offense vs Denver’s Defense

Denver has been incredibly dominant to start the season, boasting at LEAST a 12-point lead in every game this season. That feat becomes even more impressive when you consider their biggest offseason acquisition, Cam Johnson, is shooting 21% from three with an abysmal 46 TS%. His low turnover rate is the only thing that’s saving him from contending for the title of most destructive player in the league, as his TS% ranks 214th out of the 224 players who have played 200+ minutes this season.

Denver’s defense has certainly improved, mainly by cleaning up their rough transition defense from last year (30th in 2025, 3rd in 2026). The halfcourt defense has been excellent as well, thanks to Cam/Bruce/Watson’s ability to cling to defenders and chase guys around screens. With all that being said, their defensive rating is a tad inflated from punching down on the Pelicans and Pacers & they’ve yet to really be tested.

This is the 1st year since 2021 where the Nuggets are a POSITIVE with Jokic off the court, but those minutes still see a -16 net rating swing. Valanciunas has played 100% of the non-Jokic minutes, sharing the floor with Aaron Gordon for just 23% of those 115 minutes. I wonder whether DEN could shift that in tonight’s matchup, as Naz Reid’s size could pose major problems on long closeouts & he’s far too slow-footed to keep up with Reid in space.

I’d even consider shifting Jokic/Gordon’s substitution patterns (Jokic usually plays almost the entire 1st, AG checks out about 8 mins into the 1st), to make sure AG is available for the Wolves’ double-big lineups.

MIN has an extremely even distribution of shot attempts, ranking around league average frequency wise at every possible FGA. They’re at the best @ the rim (6th) or behind the 3PT line (3rd), frying teams out of isolation and spot-up playtypes. Anthony Edwards’ playmaking refinement has popped this year, showing drastic improvement agaianst aggressive PNR coverages. Watch how he uses this jump pass to angle his pass around SAC’s blitz.

DEN would be smart to use the low-man to tag Gobert early, forcing Edwards to reverse pivot and reset the offense.

Denver’s Offense vs Minnesota’s Defense

The Wolves’ defense hasn’t been as impenetrable as years past, despite their philosophy not changing much, if it all.

Gobert’s minutes are still fantastic defensively, the Wolves allow just 106 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, while suppressing opponent’s rim attempts by 2.5% relative to league average. Their DRTG skyrockets to 136 per 100 poss without Rudy though, as they allow opponents to attempt 10% MORE of their FGA at the rim with Gobert off the floor.

Ideally Minny can match Jokic’s minutes with Gobert at all times, as Jokic is once again leading the league in rim assists, averaging an absolutely mind-boggling 8.92 helpers at the rim per 100 possessions. Matching minutes DOES NOT mean leaving Gobert on an island though every possession, because Jokic just put up 55 points in 33 minute vs the “best Jokic defender in the league, Ivica Zubac. “Making Jokic score” (aka the Ty Lue strategy) just isn’t feasible, the man went 9/11 on self-created shots vs 2 of the strongest centers in the league.

You can’t show great players the same defensive look every time down the floor, it’s imperative to try and throw as many different coverages as possible. Hard doubles from time to time with aggressive tagging to prevent potential cutters is something Minny needs to mix in, especially since their most threatening perimeter cutter is out with injury.

Key Action for the Wolves:

Denver is known to throw some exotic coverages at other teams’ lead creators, popularizing the nexting/X-out technique in their title run. It’s virtually a guarantee Denver will have Jokic defend screens at the level and blitz at times, which puts pressure on Ant to make high-level reads. If you recall the clip from earlier, Ant came off a pin-down, got a rescreen, then found Gobert on the dive. On this rep, Sacramento does a better job cutting off that initial pass, but Ant remains patient, stepping through the pressure to lob a pass to the corner.

The Verdict

I think this is another regular-season classic that’ll come down to who wins the stints with Jokic/Gobert off. Denver’s bench is currently 2nd in the league in net rating, they may be better positioned to carry over that offensive success against the Wolves without Gobert then vice versa.