Supplemental Strategy for the 2025 Portland State Basketball Blueprint

Supplemental Strategy for the 2025 Portland State Basketball Blueprint

This team-based analysis is not strictly about Portland State basketball; rather, understanding the on-court output of basketball as an organizational structure.

In that, I appreciate every member of the team (and all teams internationally, for that matter) from a remote perspective, as their statistical contributions allow me to provide insights to the public.

As with any of my work, I hope that the reader can extract ideas that allow effective consumption and consideration of the game. Thank you.

The Portland State Vikings are ranked 312th in the nation according to BartTorvik and 314th by hoop-explorer, via their preseason predictions.

An outcome this poor would present a potential death blow to the current iteration of PSU basketball, simultaneously making me very sad and causing me to look like an idiot for predicting future successes of ‘the Pacific Northwest’s next powerhouse’. To combat this feeling of dread and continue the practice of turning my hours of research into tangible insights, I present supplemental strategy for the initial 2025 PSU Viking Blueprint.

I’m more than pleased to debunk an error in both statistical ranking systems, this being the omission of the supersenior duo of Jaylin Henderson and potential Big Sky POY/dark-horse NBA prospect Terri Miller Jr. Both sites have ‘roster-builder’ features for adding these players’ statistical predictions to the team projections. Adding Henderson and Miller, PSU’s sixth-most frequent lineup duo last season and teammates at Louisiana Tech in 2024, to the roster leads to massive jumps, much more in line with the franchise’s beliefs and my predictions.

I am less excited for Henderson’s return than I once was. 6'3, 175-pound wings are a tough sell, especially with the massive playmaking departure of Qiant Myers needing to be filled. Henderson’s playmaking profile presents little upside, triggering another ‘small’ to play with him at all times, deflating any hopes of a size-based attack.

Henderson’s Moreyball scoring profile is commendable, as is his leading the ‘25 team in transition frequency.

A lack of ancillary impact and not being a good enough 3PT shooter (on volume or accuracy) to affect team performance is a daunting outlook, especially with an all-but-promised thirty-minute per game allotment via supersenior and returner designations.

A shooting leap would be nice, but non-rim2 and FT% indicators aren’t promising enough to be an expectation, along with the transition from playing next to Myers to potentially having to create his shot off the bounce. Adding a 2002-born player familiar with the franchise’s mechanisms provides a solid floor for his season projection, knowing the relationship between NCAA experience and team success, though an All-Conference leap is improbable. It’s much easier to predict a leap from the Viking who made All-Conference last season. After a decent start to the season, Terri Miller Jr. went on a heater to close it out.

Finding players as successful as Miller in defensive playmaking and unassisted 2PT scoring is a genuine struggle. Add strong rebounding markers and above-average AST:TO for his offensive role, and a fringe NBA case becomes apparent.

His intersection of curiously low FTR (based on his substantial post-up/rim-based offensive attack), dating back to his JUCO career, and high foul rate without blocking shots is not one that conventionally attracts NBA attention.

Size/vertical athleticism constraints versus a mediocre conference are damning, though 6'8, 250 lbs with his OTD scoring bag and STL% point to a rare size/flexibility combination that helps his case.

All of this is reliant on him dominating the Big Sky in 2026. Jacob Wiley and Joel Bolomboy are the only BSky senior bigs to touch the league (Issac Jones transferred), and both sported gaudy pre-draft seasons.

Miller only joins them after locking down conference POY. Of returning players to the Big Sky, Miller has a strong case as the most relevant. Dylan Darling transferred to St. John’s, Blaise Threatt played Summer League with the Bucks, and Miller was third in the conference in Box Plus-Minus. Projecting as the highest usage, highest scorer on a top-three team in the conference, with increased rebounding and playmaking totals matching last season’s run, should be adequate. After a strong season, hopefully ending with a showcase in the NCAA Tournament, his pro prospects will be in question.

Of course, none of this will be possible without the 2025 PSU Transfer Class holding up. Six players joined the program for the upcoming season, with varying degrees of prior success and predictable importance. Using principles I laid out in the Blueprint, I will analyze prospects concerning their transferring up or down to the Big Sky, their effects on team height/effective height, and whether I’d consider them ‘Hands’ or ‘Gloves’ moving forward, along with the advanced analysis I would be expected to provide.

Brycen Long, Houston Christian/Arizona State

My Twitter thread on Long gives in-depth thoughts on a potentially elite shooter whose weak career schedule strength and athletic concerns leave his impact projections promisingly lukewarm.

The San Diego transfer duo of Keyon Kenzie and Kean Webb are primed for rotational roles this season, though adding reserves from the 274th-ranked team from the past two seasons is high-risk. Over this period, San Diego was 16th in pace and 86th in D-TOV%, providing some familiar stylistic similarities. Additionally, the WCC is currently a more competitive league than the Big Sky, even when excluding Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga, making this a transfer down (which usually bodes well for players).

Kenzie’s 2025 season was shortened due to an undisclosed injury, but not before handing his future team 20 points in 27 minutes in November 2024. Across his other 59 minutes last season, he totalled 11 points on 40.32 TS%, while accumulating 3 stocks/12 fouls and 4 assists/4 turnovers. Overindexing on such a small sample would be unfair. These issues aren’t resolved when analyzing his career figures, as his college career has been historically inefficient with little ancillary success to commend.

No one with his 3PAr+3P/100+FT% numbers shoots 12% from three, so he’s due for some positive regression. 42% from 2 @ 6'7 on a mostly assisted diet without being a laser shooter makes him a negative outlier. While the BSky could be the playing field for him, it’s equally possible that this is not a D1-level contributor, and a head-to-head outlier performance could have duped my dear program.

I did a ‘scouting report’ on Webb earlier this offseason, which left me pretty neutral on his acquisition.

Assuming he’s able to play next to Terri Miller relatively seamlessly, Webb will fulfill the ever-important Effective Height threshold campaigned for in The Blueprint, and fill a decent amount of the tasks Tre-Vaughn Minott was able to.

In terms of transfer bigs, there was one that I was enamored with, probably ending up as my favorite transfer in the country, and that’s Western Kentucky’s Abdulai Fanta Kabba, formerly of UofDenver.

As a side note, this showcases some of my cleaner work, visualizing a simulation of my profiling process. Returning to the incoming transfer class and not my fantasies, Isaiah Williams comes over from the Academy of Art program alongside assistant coach Palmquist-Clark, and could be the most important transfer in the ’26 szn. His role is definitive: his departed namesake, Isaiah Johnson, played over 950 minutes last season and provided a unique statistical blueprint as a rim-attacking wing. 2025 PSU’s most identifiable player-based trait is as follows:

Off Reb % ≥ 8; Block % ≥ 2; Steal % ≥ 1.75; Attempts at rim ≥ 100; FG% at rim ≥ 0.64;

Across the last four seasons, 2025 PSU was the only team with a trio of players to reach these thresholds, and there’s a zero percent chance they can replicate this next season, even with my lofty predictions for Miller. Webb reached 8+ OREB% in less than 25% of his appearances last season, and Williams’ 51 2PT% across two D2 upperclassmen seasons (334 attempts) doesn’t seem indicative of the leap needed to continue the pattern. Johnson’s biggest ’25 contribution to team output was a solid team influence in offensive FTR and EFG%, which aligns with his team-leading 1.47 adjusted points per possession on putbacks, one of PSU’s most effective playtypes relative to the rest of D1 teams.

Outside of these traits, Johnson’s unimpactful archetype restrained any massive box score impact. Non-shooting non-bigs that don’t pass or rebound the ball at a high level have impact limitations, and he did not defeat this premise last year.

Providing moderate, arguably negative team impact to a low-major program should be more than replaceable by Williams. Accounting for the differences in competition level between the Big Sky and the PacWest conferences, asserting that Williams had a better season than Johnson last season is unfair. Instead, I hypothesize that Williams is the more versatile player on both ends, sacrificing efficiency for a much higher 3PAr and FTR. Along with this, Williams’ passing and defensive playmaking abilities are much more striking. Without advanced play-by-play access, discerning the distribution of his shot diet is impossible. Usually, players who lead their teams in assists attempt a higher percentage of their shots off the dribble, which are less efficient, more contested looks.

With this, Williams’ mediocre scoring from the field could improve playing with more capable handlers, though his career shooting numbers temper those expectations. He should slot into a starting forward position with relative ease, accounting for the age and quality of reserves at similar positions (Dupre, Brice, Kenzie), and provide positive lineup impact.

Mozae Downing-Rivers is the least inspiring new addition to the franchise. Usually, the ‘worst’ players in the country by Box Plus-Minus are underclassmen with poor shooting luck and/or play in the ‘worst’ conferences in the nation, namely the SWAC, MEAC, and NEC. A senior Downing-Rivers played in the Mountain Valley Conference, ranked 10th among all conferences by Bart Torvik, providing an inherent ‘strength of schedule’ boost to his metrics. To still have one of the lowest full-season Box Plus-Minuses I’ve ever seen is very alarming. Of all traits in his profile from his first D1 season, I find his shot distribution to be the most troubling. A 12:35:10 Rim:Non-Rim2:3PT shot diet is a disgrace to everything Mike D’Antoni has done for the beautiful game, regardless of makes and misses. It doesn’t help to miss mostly every shot and not rebound or get to the line, or to register a 36 turnover percentage, one of the highest I’ve ever seen.

If PSU had fully adopted a statistically-based recruiting process like The Blueprint indicated, we never would have known his name. Now, we are past that point, and I can commend his stock rates/defensive turnover impact and solid AST:TO ratio at 6'6. There’s even upside for his defensive playmaking to grow, accounting for his astronomical foul rate turning into more completed plays and a further respect from officials to play a more aggressive style.

With massive improvements in his scoring process, some positive scoring regression, and cleaning up turnovers versus the Big Sky’s easier SOS, Downing-Rivers could border on playable.

Charles Chukwu projects as the third big in the Viking rotation next season, leaving him in an irreplaceable position as the relief for a rising sophomore and a guy that averages a hair over five fouls per 40 minutes in his career in Miller. Chukwu’s last D1 appearance was in March 2023, for a weak Tulsa team in a solid American Athletic Conference.

I had an idea for analyzing his play at Garden City Community College in 2024, but I don’t currently have access to complete it.

If Chukwu were as good as Nick Pringle or Tuburu Naivalurua in their final JUCO seasons, it would be fair to imagine him being successful returning to the D1 level. If not, I would have been able to illustrate the need to bring in a fourth big. With a finalized roster and the next most capable player on the roster to play the five being 6'7, 215 lb Isaiah Williams, grilling his profile would have no value. Instead, the hope is that he spent his 2025 redshirt season at Arkansas-Little Rock improving his free-throw inaccuracy (46.8% on 78 attempts at Garden City CC, 4–10 at Tulsa) and feel (24 assists to 51 turnovers across his last 1k college basketball minutes, as well as 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes).

Though not a new transfer, Sebastian Tidor is my favorite new addition to the 2026 lineup, if only for the excitement of the unknown. A 6'5, 200 lb wing that was the 12th-leading scorer in JUCO basketball in 2024 on 64% true shooting and only 11 TO% as a sophomore is a pretty insane baseline to work from, and just as impressive as anyone else on this roster at the same age.

My hottest PSU take* is that he’s the second-best player on the roster by conference play and challenges to make an All-BSky team. His statistical footprint looks like he was playing substantially below his competition level, though I could be overindexing on these numbers and don’t have the best grip on transferring JUCO to D1. Even then, a solidly-built, high-3PT volume wing with a more than solid AST:TO ratio and fine athletic indicators (nearly 7 rebounds and 2 stocks per game in Roane State CC) is theoretically the most portable player on the team.

*I am the only person with any PSU takes*

There isn’t much information online about the effects of redshirt seasons in college basketball (please share if you have any), but being a year older and more physically developed with the same class designation doesn’t seem like it would have negative ramifications. I fear redshirting could be a psyop, lacking much real impact on player production. In any case, Tidor’s addition to the lineup will be a positive one, based on my analysis.

The 2025 team’s free-throw shooting was a pertinent issue in the Blueprint.

Via the original piece:

Portland State (was) 357th in the nation (out of 364 teams) in FT% across the 2024 and 2025 seasons combined. Being in the bottom 3rd percentile in the country in free throw shooting across a two-season sample should have led to negative team performance overall (see the below chart showing a very positive correlation between Team FT% and Win%), but other tactical decisions by the PSU coaching staff led to an above-.500 record.

Calculating the 2026 roster’s college totals from the line seemed like a good starting point.

70.46% team career FT% would rank 240th in the nation last season, a significant leap from the disastrous total from last year. Unfortunately, this does not account for minute distributions or free-throw rates. While it’s likely possible to predict team FT% using shooting priors and lineup/usage projections, this is not an endeavor pertinent to this analysis. 60% Myers and 59% Minott departing and being replaced by 86% Long and 76% Webb present massive upside for team shotmaking ability.

From a coaching perspective, Hoffman’s TCU team was the bottom first percentile FT% in the nation (354/364, 2nd lowest HM ahead of Utah), still ahead of Portland State. Williams’ UNLV teams shot a reasonable 72.5% from the line across the last four seasons, ranking 133rd in the nation (min. 100 games played to filter out new D1 members), but fell to 204th in the nation in the 2025 season, only making 71.7% from the line.

Palmquist-Clark’s 2025 Academy of Art roster shot 65% from the line on 600 attempts last season, which was 13th of 14 teams in the PacWest Conference. 
Year-Team-Attempts-FT%-conf rank
2024-AofArt-643–72.8–6th/11
2023-AofArt-641–65.7–10th/11
2022-AofArt-564–70.9–6th/11
2021-N.E.Okla-502–68.9–5th/10
2020-Howard (TX)-522–71.3–9th/23

While assistant coach FT% isn’t a proven datapoint, it is apparent that no incoming coach comes from programs that have turned losses to wins with made free throws, making it less likely they will provide this latent benefit.

Finally, I’ve developed lineup combinations and a full rotation based on my knowledge and understanding of the 2026 roster. Across the first nine ‘competitive’ games, which I’ve described as those not versus sub-D1 or High-Major opponents, the following is the most optimized means to test lineup configurations in preparation for conference play and beyond.

Flipping the minutes of Webb and Chukwu across games (i.e, starting Chukwu 3 or 4 of the nine matches) to ensure every guard/wing plays enough time with each center to identify potential synergy boosts would be ideal, as would heavily experimenting with that quartet of wings in games versus higher-end or lower-end teams that could end up uncompetitive, such as the first three bouts of the year versus Stanford, Northwest Indian College, and San Francisco.

In addition, I have a few suggestions for situational lineups, providing stylistic variation possibilities.

Assuming no injuries, in the first nine competitive games, this guideline will provide sufficient lineup data to optimize rotations for the rest of the season. Utilizing a proven lineup loadout is crucial for success, especially when working with limited talent pools. Leaning into synergistic edges can be the difference, and basing lineups on data-driven insights gives that opportunity. For example, Kean Webb by himself could be a fine player. Still, his turnover aversion and rim-finishing could improve substantially alongside Kelcy Phipps and Isaiah Williams’ positional playmaking, thereby lifting the team’s offensive ceiling.

Being thoughtful about lineups is a trait that I learned from bballstrategy, and running as few ‘junk’ 2-minute lineups as possible is a trait that usually differentiates good NBA franchises from bad ones. While the data at the NCAA level isn’t as fleshed out, the concept of discovering and then playing the most successful lineups possible is an obvious one.

One fear I have with this roster is the three-man frontcourt of habitual foulers, and how this could lead to junk lineups that will be ineffective more times than not, and not provide useful data. I point to Bruce Pearl’s Auburn Tigers as a useful lesson in simply letting your bigs foul and not altering rotations heavily because of it. Ranking 319th nationally in fouls per game and 320th in defensive FTR, the Tigers ended with a top-ten defense in the nation and two bigs starting their NBA careers. Miller, Webb, and Chukwu aren't Broome, Cardwell, and Chaney Johnson by any means, but normalizing the trait and keeping the best players on the floor would lead to a net gain.

My adoption of the PSU franchise as a public analytic advocate has been a stimulating one, and I appreciate their staff for the insightful discourse when possible. Whether I ‘return’ to reviewing PSU or develop an alternate parasocial relationship with a basketball franchise is up to fate, but I am sure that my work in the original post and this follow-up have provided insights into college basketball teambuilding and optimization that many would not pursue. I hope that my peers can present case analyses on basketball franchises worldwide moving forward.

Nile!