There’s nothing like the NBA Draft. I’ve been talking basketball on the internet since 2021, and I’ve only grown more enamored with the herculean task of evaluating hundreds of prospects every cycle, searching for sources of edge and hidden gems, trying my best to refine my process with each passing year. In years past, I began that effort as the NBA season winded down, taking a retrospective approach to evaluating prospects that dulled my ability to effectively sift through dozens of profiles in the month or a half between the end of the regular season and the draft.
This year though, I’ve been much more proactive, thanks to those who were willing to share their data sources and hold dialogue with me. A very special thank you is also in order for the Pelicans Exeuctive Vice President of Basketball Operations, who provided the catalyst I needed to get engaged with the 2026 class early, by making a draft night trade with the team I cover closely.
I’m using this article in conjunction with my pre-season T30 board, to establish my priors on each prospect, making it seamless for me to track their progression in one (or multiple) key areas I believe will assist in their translation to the NBA. As I alluded to above, it’s tough to create an initial assessment about a player with fragmented statistical/film profiles, a knowledge gap I’ve lacked in previous cycles that I’ve been able to somewhat rectify for this upcoming cycle.
I say somewhat, because as a basketball analyst who loves data, the data quality/standardization/overall reliability of pre-NCAA data is incredibly poor. There’s so many discrepancies in competition level, team context, a player’s growth/role, etc. that make it tough to glean anything concrete from the raw data alone. That makes these rankings virtually guaranteed to change rather drastically as the collegiate sample grows larger, but I do find the pre-NCAA film + data to be informative when processing how a particular player’s shooting may develop, whether they’ve driven impact in multiple contexts and whether they initially align with my draft philosophy.
My entire philosophy can be read on my site, and I hope that this board below reflects all the aspects of a player’s profile that I value.
Generational intersection of size, touch, rebounding and processing speed.
Pre-NCAA Per 40 Splits: 30.6 PTS/16.4 REBS/4.8 ASTS on 1.5 A/TO, 2.3 BLKS & 2.2 STLS on 1.73 STKS PER FOUL, 82.2 FT%, 34.9 3P%, 64 eFG%, 68.2 TS%, 38.5% FTr, 26.6% 3PAr on 27.9 USG% in 117 games
What I’m Watching For: How effectively can he create from a standstill?
Primary/Secondary Options who remain positives on defense while also shouldering a heavy creation load is one of my favorite indicators for superstardom. The guys who can reach those levels are the cream of the crop, the focal points of championship teams. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an excellent example of that rare combination of skills, a trajectory I think Boozer and the guy “below” him are firmly on.
Boozer averaged nearly ~ 4.5 stocks per 40 mins, an insane defensive playmaking rate for a guy who was so involved on offense. Physicality, motor and hustle can be tough to quantify, but I think Cam’s OREB%, steal% and deflections as a proxy all clearly point him as an incredibly active player. The other key aspect to sustaining heavy offensive involvement without falling apart on defense is possessing the ability to generate buckets consistently and reliably in a variety of different ways. Cam’s voraciousness on the glass, playmaking ability, free-throw rate and conversion ability at the line thanks to his strength creation projects him as a resilient creator for himself and others in the postseason.
I think it’s fair to question whether he has the off the dribble fluidity to create advantages from a standstill, but I also wonder if that even matters for a 6’9, 250-lb teenager who shot 82+% from the FT line on 400+ attempts.
Electric scorer & prolific defensive playmaker with a prototypical frame for the ideal modern PG.
Pre-NCAA Per 40 Splits: 31.3 PTS/9.4 REBS/4.5 ASTS on 1.6 A/TO, 3.9 STLS & 2.2 BLKS on 1.61 STKS PER FOUL, 81.3 FT%, 30.3 3P%, 51 eFG%, 56.5 TS%, 35.4% FTr, 26.8% 3PAr on 34.3 USG% in 50 games
What I’m Watching For: Can Peterson be just as dangerous attacking off the ball? How creative is he as a live-dribble passer?
As alluded to above, I think DP has the same potential to blossom into the type of creator NBA teams covet highly enough to write off an entire season. Peterson had an even higher offensive load than Boozer, constantly orchestrating everything for his team at the top of the key and still put up generational numbers as a defensive playmaker, especially as a guard. His physical tools just completely alleviate most of the concerns you’d have with a heliocentric guard, as his game seems to be nearly as resilient as Boozer.
I believe those same tools will make him equally as dangerous off the ball, but that’s something I need to see in a collegiate context, as he’s been ball-dominant in every other context so far. As I detailed in my philosophy on my site, the threshold to be an on-ball creator has never been higher in the NBA, which necessitates anyone who wants to be 30+ On-Ball% to possess at least some semblance of a pull-up 3. I’ve seen it enough to think DP can get there, especially with the way he’s gotten up 3s to start the season.
Monstrous defender whose imposing wingspan and mobility allows him to single-handedly blanket possessions.
2024-2025 NCAA Per 40 Splits: 12.8 PTS/ 10.7 REBS/ 2.1 ASTS on 0.8 A/TO, 1.5 STLS & 3.6 BLKS on 1.5 STKS PER FOUL, 47.9 FT%, 18.8 3P%, 54.2 eFG%, 53.6 TS%, 40.1% FTr, 18.1% 3PAr on 18.4 USG% in 24 games
What I’m Watching For: How much growth will we see as a playmaker and/or free-throw shooter? Has the ACL recovery sapped any of his athleticism?
I value JQ’s defense as the most transformative individual skillset in the entire class. He’s so unbelievably impactful on that end that I really just need to see the slightest step forward at the line or as a passer to believe he can push for T3 value in the class. His production at 17 years old, too young to even be eligible to be drafted in D1 basketball cannot be dismissed.
Incredible driver & self-creator with the requisite frame & feel to reach superstardom.
Pre-NCAA Per 40 Splits: 29.3 PTS/ 9.5 REBS/ 4.9 ASTS on 1.3 A/TO, 1.9 STLS & 0.8 BLKS on 1.3 STKS PER FOUL, 80.9 FT%, 35.2 3P%, 60.3 eFG%, 64.9 TS%, 38.4% FTr, 32.1% 3PAr, 27.8 USG% in games
What I’m Watching For: Can AJ add more value on defense with less on-ball responsibility?
Everytime I’ve tuned into AJ Dybantsa’s tape, I leave equally as impressed with the way he uses his frame on offense as I am underwhelmed with the way he uses his frame on defense. He can access space on the court a select few can in the NBA, descending onto opposing rim protectors from above like a falcon diving at a hare, which makes it that much more frustrating that we don’t see him tap into his gifts on the other end of the floor. 0.8 BLKs per 40 just isn’t enough production relative to his frame, which combined with the engagement off ball and some of his positioning issues, makes it tough for me to confidently project him above neutral in the league.
It’s comforting that he possesses the requisite frame & athleticism, which makes this season an important litmus test on whether he can balance those responsibilities as effectively as DP/Boozer. He’s also got to stop turning open 3PA windows into pull-up middies, as even wings need to be at a relatively high 3PAr in today’s game.
Gargantuan big with tantalizing passing and rim protection ability.
2024-2025 NCAA Per 40 Splits: 19.6 PTS/ 12.3 REBS/ 3.2 ASTS on 1.2 A/TO, 0.6 STLS & 4.9 BLKS on 2.2 STKS PER FOUL, 57.5 FT%, 0 3P%, 59 eFG%, 59.4 TS%, 49.3 FTr, 0 3PAr, 24.8 USG% in 33 games
What I’m Watching For: Can he play 60+% of his team’s minutes? How much will the rim finishing improve in a more conducive offensive context?
In the past 2 cycles, I’ve undervalued Mara’s archetypal predecessors: Zach Edey and Donovan Clingan. I’m not drawing a direct comparison, just pointing out that there are some skillset overlaps that are piquing my curiosity. Mara is similarly massive and an incredible rim protector, but he doesn’t have the post arsenal + FT touch or Clingan’s resume as a hub on offense. What Mara does have though, is incredible playmaking tape at lower levels that has persisted into some strong assist rates collegiately. Video via fra_sempru.
Bigs who can pass like this, with high-offensive rebounding rates + screening ability are maybe the most valuable offensive players in the sport. There are just so many ways for guys like this to drive positive offensive value, Mara’s biggest issue is getting on the court enough to drive that impact for longer stints, in addition to seeking out physicality more regularly.
I think he’s in an ideal context with Michigan, thus I’m expecting some gains in his rim efficiency. His touch is much better than the awful 42% he shot on 41 total non-dunk at the rim FGA, I’m encouraged by the 47.6% he shot on 63 non-rim 2s. Aday also boasts unique movement patterns for his size, so I’m anticipating a 8-12 OREB% with similarly high BLK%. If he gets to 60+ MIN%, that’s easily a T5 profile for me.
Dogged defender who pairs one of the best motors in the class with encouraging shooting/creation indicators.
Pre-NCAA PPG Splits*: 18.6 PTS/ 10.9 REBS/ 4.1 ASTS on 1.2 A/TO, 1.5 STLS & 3.7 BLKS on 3.4 STKS PER FOUL, 65.4 FT%, 30.3 3P%, 56.4 eFG%, 61.16 TS%, 42.2 FTr, 19.8 3PAr in 107 games
What I’m Watching For: What is Wilson’s offensive role in the halfcourt?
Holy Innocents’ legend Caleb Wilson is one of the few prospects on this list I had the pleasure of watching in person. Wilson was just mean on defense in high-school, indiscriminately swatting shots into the backcourt, full-court pressing teams into submission. He’s unbelievably lanky, so it doesn’t always look like he’s fully in control of his limbs, but he somehow still manages to move his feet and flip his hips with ease. Being such a menacing defensive force who played AAU with an elite outlet passer (Cam Boozer) led to a ton of transition possessions that muddled his efficiency a bit. I think despite the somewhat low shooting percentages, he’s a relatively confident bet to shoot the 3 reliably some day, which gives him one of the higher floors in the class.
Prolific rebounder who dominated international competition as a teenager.
Pre-NCAA Per 40 Splits: 21.2 PTS/ 14.4 REBS/ 2.6 ASTS on 0.9 A/TO, 1.3 STLS & 1.8 BLKS on 1.2 STKS PER FOUL, 67.0 FT%, 31.1 3P%, 61.9 eFG%, 64.5 TS%, 52% FTr, 16.1% 3PAr, 21.4 USG% in 71 games
What I’m Watching For: Will he be able to “out-touch” his lack of verticality?
Steinbach is a somewhat funky big that has led some evaluators to label him as a “tweener”, a perception that was a death sentence for bigs a decade ago. I’m buying the production as an 18-year old in a pro context, as Steinbach paired unreal efficiency with ridiculous rebounding ability. If the touch around the rim leads to a jump in FT% or even an ability to stretch the floor, I think a Tristian Thomspon-esque outcome with stronger passing is a realistic outcome.
Infallible playmaker who shouldered one of the heaviest offensive loads in the country.
2024-2025 NCAA Per 40 Splits: 19.5 PTS/ 4.4 REBS/ 5.8 ASTS on 2.9 A/TO, 2.1 STLS & 0.3 BLKS on 1.6 STKS PER FOUL, 79.4 FT%, 39.5 3P%, 56.6 eFG%, 60.8 TS%, 38.5% FTr, 34.6% 3PAr, 25.8 USG% in 35 games
What I’m Watching For: How real was the 3P self-creation?
Stirtz is coming off of one of the most remarkable guard seasons in recent history, honoring Haliburton’s legacy as a turnover-averse lead guard. There are still a number of questions though, as there are aspects of Stirtz’s profile that may prove to be unsustainable against tougher competition. Drake played just 2 T50 teams during the regular season last year and they were one of the slowest teams in D1 (which suppresses turnovers), plus Stirtz shot 39% from 3 with less than 40% of those 3PM being assisted.
I wholeheartedly believe Bennett is a real shooter, he shot it well virtually every year against D2 comp as well. If that pull-up 3P% regresses though, his viability as a primary could get a bit shaky, which then complicates his status as a “weak-link” defensively in the league. His hands are fantastic and he’s big enough to not get barbecued over and over, but the offensive impact will need to offset some of he machinations his team will have to deploy to mitigate opposing teams mismatching hunting.
These factors + Stirtz entering draft day at the ripe old age of 22.71 makes me a bit lower on him, though he has room to rise on my board if he remains effective in a higher pace environment.
2-way connective guard whose freshman season hinted at an ability to scale up offensively.
Pre-NCAA Per 40 Splits: 17.2 PTS/ 7.0 REBS/ 6.1 ASTS on 2.2 A/TO, 2.2 STLS & 0.5 BLKS on 1.0 STKS PER FOUL, 76.7 FT%, 31.5 3P%, 51.4 eFG%, 54.9 TS%, 28.7 FTr, 39.5 3PAr, 20.9 USG% in 37 games
What I’m Watching For: Can Philon continue to provide ancillary value with increased usage?
College basketball is typically so stratified that it’s rare to see players perform in different roles, especially freshmen on NCAA title hopefuls. That’s why I put so much stock into Kon Knueppel performing exceptionally well without Flagg in the ACC tournament, as it was an indicator that his creation ability has been suppressed a bit by Flagg. Knueppel’s ability to scale up and down according to his team’s needs is a large part of the reason why I ended with him T10 on my board, and it’s that same phenomenon that has me higher than most on Philon.
Labaron played 397 non-garbage time possession with Sears off the floor, pushing Alabama’s offense to a 127.2 ORTG, the equivalent of the best offense in D1. Bama saw a sharp increase in their scoring efficiency on pick & pops, while maintaining their roll-man & transition scoring efficiency on the possessions Philon & Sears shared the floor.
Philon’s increases in AST% without a spike in turnovers, the jump in FTR and the increased rim FG% are all positive metrics for his ability to continue to shoulder Bama’s offense this upcoming season. Most importantly though, he maintained the defensive playmaking (4.3 stock% without Sears, 4.1 stock% WITH sears) with the increased offensive usage. The off the dribble 3P shooting will be something to watch throughout the season.
Knockdown shooter & space creator with plus rebounding, playmaking and finishing relative to his archetype.
Pre-NCAA Per 40 Splits: 27.7 PTS/ 8.5 REBS/ 4.6 ASTS on 1.9 A/TO, 2.5 STLS & 0.3 BLKS on 1.17 STKS PER FOUL, 79.0% FT%, 37.1% 3P%, 53.3 eFG%, 56.7 TS%, 23.6% FTr, 37.7% 3Pr, 28.9 USG% in 103 games
What I’m Watching For: Will his slight frame hinder his space creation ability?
Meleek Thomas is the type of combo guard I would usually fade, but he drew me in with the rebounding and playmaking ability. It also helps that outside of Mikel Brown & Nate Ament, there isn’t an incoming freshmen I’m more confident will be an elite shooter than Thomas. I like Meleek’s ancillary skills more than both of those guys, though I will be monitoring if he can continue to create space against SEC frames.
Immensely skilled big with the wingspan to transcend his height/athleticism concerns.
Pre-NCAA Per 40 Splits: 22.1 PTS/ 14.4 REBS/ 3.2 ASTS on 1.5 A/TO, 1.6 STLS & 2.3 BLKS on 1.15 STKS PER FOUL, 77.9% FT%, 32.3% 3P%, 62.0 eFG%, 65.2 TS%, 30.5% FTr, 7.3% 3Pr, 21.0 USG% in 103 games
What I’m Watching For: Can he continue to dominate the glass at the collegiate level?
Toombs has consistently dominated the other guys in his age group, and I think he’ll measure better than the 6’9 number that’s been floated around. He has a lot of the aspects that I value in bigs, as 5 that embraces physicality, sees complex passing angles and converts at the FT line.
Priors: Hulking wing with a uniquely high creation rate & varied playtype distribution
Pre-NCAA Per 40 Splits: 23.7 PTS/ 9.8 REBS/ 3.3 ASTS on 1.1 A/TO, 1.4 STLS & 1.7 BLKS on 1.0 STKS PER FOUL, 64.2% FT%, 21.5% 3P%, 53.4% eFG%, 56.2% TS%, 37.5% FTr, 11.2% 3Pr, 25.3 USG% in 92 games
What I’m Watching for: Can he score effectively as a roller despite a lack of vertical pop?
Koa Peat is such an incredibly varied offensive player playstyle-wise, and as I’ve mentioned for some previous players, a prospect who can morph to fit his team’s needs has multiple avenues to produce in the league.
It’s anomalous for a player this large to exhibit such immense driving and creation volume, Koa’s debut featured him seamlessly functioning as a roller, post-up player, delay facilitator & transition threat. The efficiency hasn’t historically persisted when he’s been asked to finish plays. Peat has similar deficiencies as a roller to Paolo Banchero, as extremely strong players that don’t have a ton of vertical explosion.
I believe Koa will test the limits of just how strong a player has to be to transcend verticality, length and shooting concerns. However, if it isn’t clear, I’m buying his intersection of strength, feel and creation ability. The genes he shares with his older brother, 3X All-Pro Offensive Lineman Andrus Peat, have gifted him with special physical tools.
Swiss Army knife wing/forward hybrid with a macropterous wingspan.
2024-2025 NCAA Per 40 Splits: 19.3 PTS/ 12.4 REBS/ 4.3 ASTS on 1.4 A/TO, 1.9 STLS & 1.6 BLKS on 1.09 STKS PER FOUL, 78.4 FT%, 41.3 3P%, 61.8 eFG%, 65.1 TS%, 39.2% FTr, 34.4% 3PAr, 22.0 USG% in 35 games
What I’m Watching For: Can he sustain his 3P% development? How many positions can he play on D in conference play?
Folgy’s name would pop-up in a variety of “do-it-all” wing queries I ran last cycle, which immediately got him on my radar when I learned how ridiculous his wingspan is. His nickname is “The Octopus”, a fitting title for a 6’9 player with a reported 7’6” wingspan. His tools alone have him in 1st round consideration for me, though I would like to see some increased scoring aggression and role clarity on defense.
Roll + cut big that doubles as an inventive passer & stout rim protector.
Pre-NCAA Per 40 Splits: 21.4 PTS/ 15.4 REBS/ 2.5 ASTS on 0.7 A/TO, 1.2 STLS & 3.1 BLKS on 1.87 STKS PER FOUL, 60.3% FT%, 19.2% 3P%, 64.1% eFG%, 64.9 TS%, 45.0% FTr, 5.0% 3Pr, 22.6 USG% in 58 games
What I’m Watching For: Will Kentucky feature him as a DHO or post hub?
There’s a good chance Kentucky has the 2nd best passing backcourt in the nation, and it was encouraging to hear Quaintance share that was the plan for both bigs. Moreno checks almost every box I want from a big, especially since the passing is much better than the numbers suggest.
Shifty on-ball guard who flourished at the rim.
Pre-NCAA Per 40 Splits: 25.3 PTS/ 7.9 REBS/ 4.9 ASTS on 1.7 A/TO, 1.9 STLS & 0.4 BLKS on 0.72 STKS PER FOUL, 71.2% FT%, 40.4% 3P%, 56.7% eFG%, 60.4% TS%, 40.6% FTr, 36.8% 3Pr, 26.8 USG% in 60 games
What I’m Watching For: Can he take steps to become a lead playmaker?
Burries is one of the best rim pressure bets in the class, leading the class in drive frequency while shooting 63.6% at the rim in EYBL this past year. That ability to generate paint touches combined with his shooting indicators necessitated his placement in the T15, with room to grow if he can provide the half-court playmaking & advantage creation Arizona needs.
Imposing wing who can do it all.
2024-2025 NCAA Per 40 Splits: 21.0 PTS/ 13.5 REBS/ 5.0 ASTS on 1.9 A/TO, 2.1 STLS & 2.1 BLKS on 1.45 STKS PER FOUL, 75.7 FT%, 35.7 3P%, 54.9 eFG%, 59.2 TS%, 44.3% FTr, 15.4% 3PAr, 23.9 USG% in 37 games
What I’m Watching For: How much of his creation ability will translate vs tougher comp? Can he up his 3-point attempt rate?
Lendeborg was in a lot of those queries Folgy was, as a guy who did absolutely everything for UAB. His NBA outcome is pretty heavily dependent on the 3P volume, as while he’s serviceable on defense, I’m not convinced he’s elite enough to overcome defenses ignoring him behind the 3-point line.
The Larry Nance/Aaron Gordon/Jerami Grant role is there for him if he can get that 3PAr up, though he’ll be walking into the NBA at 23!
Traditional 4 with the playmaking ability to transcend his athletic limitations.
2024-2025 NCAA Per 40 Splits: 17.5 PTS/ 10.0 REBS/ 4.2 ASTS on 1.3 A/TO, 2.9 STLS & 1.0 BLKS on 1.3 STKS PER FOUL, 75.6 FT%, 31.0 3P%, 54.9 eFG%, 59.7 TS%, 51.0% FTr, 19.0% 3PAr, 22.5 USG% in 35 games
What I’m Watching For: Can Jefferson put pressure on the rim without posting up? Is there any chance at further shooting development?
There are plenty of valid concerns about Joshua Jefferson: Can he score at the NBA level? Could his weight be a problem? Is his rim pressure replicable at the NBA level as a post-heavy guy? All of those questions come down to 1 defining query though, can he outthink his limitations? My answer is yes, as I genuinely think he’s one of the more gifted passers in the NBA.
Deadly shooter who produced as a rebounder and defensive playmaker.
Pre-NCAA Per 40 Splits: 23.9 PTS/ 11.7 REBS/ 2.8 ASTS on 0.9 A/TO, 1.6 STLS & 2.4 BLKS on 1.5 STKS PER FOUL, 83.2% FT%, 38.5% 3P%, 53.1% eFG%, 59.8% TS%, 43.8% FTr, 39.4% 3Pr, 26.9 USG% in 80 games
What I’m Watching For: Has his frame developed enough to sustain SEC physicality? Does he have enough on-ball juice to optimize his shot profile?
To be fully transparent, Ament reminds me of Zaccharie Risacher. It doesn’t help that they not only wear the same number & have similar hairstyles, but also move very similarly on the court. Ament is already leaps & bounds ahead of Zacch with the ball in his hands, but he shares some of the physicality concerns that have me tentative to rank him higher. I was initially encouraged by his rebounding and stock rates, until I saw they dropped off considerably in AAU.
I’m taking those numbers with a grain of salt, but they confirm my takeaways from the film, Ament’s shooting ability masks a concerning inability to get to his spots & his frame isn’t quite there yet to withstand defenders getting physical. Tennessee is an optimal proving ground, where his skillset should align in the same system that propped up Dalton Knecht, while facing some tough defensive teams over the course of the season.
Polished lead guard who distinguishes himself from most “traditional PGs” with transition play and positional size.
Pre-NCAA Per 40 Splits: 17.7 PTS/ 5.3 REBS/ 8.8 ASTS on 2.2 A/TO, 2.4 STLS & 0.4 BLKS on 1.47 STKS PER FOUL, 76.9% FT%, 36.2% 3P%, 56.0% eFG%, 59.3% TS%, 26.5% FTr, 19.0% 3Pr, 20.9 USG% in 116 games
What I’m Watching For: Can he distinguish himself from his talented brother? How long will it take for Scheyer to give him the tick he deserves?
Cayden is another example of an archetype I’d usually pass on, the "“risk-averse true PG who doesn’t have much scoring equity”, i.e. Tyus Jones aka the man who’s sabotaging Franz Wagner. Cam’s twin is bigger than most “true PGs”, is more comfortable playing with pace and exhibits similar court-mapping ability to his brother. I’m also betting on the genetics kicking in for Cayden and allowing him to bulk up more than most guards.
Talented passing big whose production has been bottlenecked by injuries.
2024-2025 NCAA Per 40 Splits: 14.7 PTS/ 10.1 REBS/ 2.9 ASTS on 1.3 A/TO, 1.4 STLS & 2.0 BLKS on 0.52 STKS PER FOUL, 72.7 FT%, 0 3P%, 71.9 eFG%, 72.8 TS%, 51.6% FTr, 0.2% 3PAr, 14.2 USG% in 30 games (* just ~ 300 minutes played)
What I’m Watching For: Can he cut down on the fouling issues?
Ngongba and Boozer are easily the best passing frontcourt in basketball, a synergistic combo that will be a key advantage for Duke this year. Duke’s guard room sans Cayden is a bit sparse in the playmaking & creation department, which opens up an opportunity for the bigs to shine. Pat is a really fun playmaker who may grow into a stretch 5, but he won’t get the opportunity to showcase his skill if he continues to foul profusely. That sub < 1 stock/foul ratio really dampens the rim protection ability, and it’s an issue he absolutely needs to address, because he has *mostly* everything else.
Creative scorer that should pop in an increased role as a sophomore.
2024-2025 NCAA Per 40 Splits: 19.4 PTS/ 6.2 REBS/ 3.7 ASTS on 0.9 A/TO, 1.2 STLS & 0.4 BLKS on 0.48 STKS PER FOUL, 74.2 FT%, 30.4 3P%, 54.7 eFG%, 58.1 TS%, 33.3% FTr, 60.0% 3PAr, 23.7 USG% in 24 games (*just ~ 200 minutes played)
What I’m Watching For: Is his high 3PAr a feature or a bug?
It’s rare to find incendiary scorers who provide value on the glass with a base level of feel, and I fully believe McNeil is one of the best scorers in the draft. The shooting priors are fantastic, the motion is repeatable and clean, and I’m expecting a big season from him. It’s not always a good sign for a player to take a ton of 3s relative to their overall shot volume, as it can suggest a tendency to settle or an inability to create off the dribble. I think Paul’s 3PAr is a feature, profiling as the type of high-volume 3P shooter who can do enough off the dribble as a driver and passer to put defenses into rotation, a la Gary Trent Jr.
Risk-averse connective wing who carved out a respectable role as a teenage pro.
Pre-NCAA Per 40 Splits: 16.3 PTS/ 7.9 REBS/ 2.2 ASTS on 1.0 A/TO, 1.1 STLS & 1.6 BLKS on 0.56 STKS PER FOUL, 76.9% FT%, 36.2% 3P%, 51.4% eFG%, 57.3% TS%, 50.0% FTr, 38.7% 3Pr, 18.6 USG% in 28 games (*at 17 in the NBL)
What I’m Watching For: Has he bulked up his frame? Is the 3P% leap real?
Young prospects don’t typically play meaningful roles in the super physical NBL, as they usually don’t have the strength to weather facing grown-man strength all game. Lopez was able to survive in his minutes, with his high-foul rate pointing at the difficulties a teenager can face on defense. His case is simple though, as a 6’9 wing who can pass, dribble, & hopefully shoot, sustaining his 3P% leap (30.4% → 41.7% this season) is enough to get him drafted.
Prototypical wing size, anthros & athleticism.
2024-2025 NCAA Per 40 Splits: 13.9 PTS/ 5.5 REBS/ 1.7 ASTS on 0.9 A/TO, 1.0 STLS & 0.8 BLKS on 0.56 STKS PER FOUL, 80.2 FT%, 35.0 3P%, 54.6 eFG%, 59.7 TS%, 43.8% FTr, 48.1% 3PAr, 17.0 USG% in 36 games
What I’m Watching For: Can he develop the baseline feel to be a rotational NBA wing?
Knox has virtually everything he needs to be a successful NBA wing. Baseline athleticism (10+ dunks), rim finishing (70+%) while shooting 35+% from 3 is a strong formula for success.
I’d imagine teams want to see him sustain that efficiency over higher shot volume, as he wasn’t shouldering much usage.
Talented PNR operator who exhibited craft well-beyond his years.
Pre-NCAA Per 40 Splits: 20.3 PTS/ 5.6 REBS/ 6.7 ASTS on 1.6 A/TO, 1.8 STLS & 0.2 BLKS on 0.56 STKS PER FOUL, 82.5% FT%, 32.7% 3P%, 50.4% eFG%, 57.5% TS%, 44.2% FTr, 41.2% 3Pr, 24.0 USG% in 46 games
What I’m Watching For: How viable is his below the rim finishing package?
Tempo & pace are traits I think can be learned, but robotic basketball players are never the most effective. Basketball is meant to be an improvisational sport, an environment where the most creative players have an advantage because the defense can never quite tell what’s coming. Mario runs the PNR like Naismith envisioned, regularly mixing in skips, lobs, pocket passes & more with his own varied scoring package. He has an unusually high off the glass scoop layup & floater package that I’m eager to see translate to the NCAA.
Near certain dynamic shooting bet with intriguing playmaking ability.
Pre-NCAA Per 40 Splits: 18.2 PTS/ 3.5 REBS/ 5.6 ASTS on 1.8 A/TO, 1.6 STLS & 0.1 BLKS on 1.0 STKS PER FOUL, 85.2% FT%, 35.1% 3P%, 48.3% eFG%, 54.0% TS%, 30.8% FTr, 54.7% 3Pr, 21.7 USG% in 113 games
What I’m Watching For: Can he refine his in-between game? Will he able to rectify his pre-NCAA 2P scoring struggles?
Mikel’s a great example of the source of truth issue that plagues NCAA data. He has one of the worst scoring efficiency on 2s I’ve seen from a serious prospect, shooting 46.9% on 2s in AAU play. His full-sample with his high-school games included has him at 41%, an alarming percentage that doesn’t include the context that he sprouted almost 6 inches in a single summer.
That level of growth can throw off your equilibrium, but it also merges together 2 samples of wildly disparate prospects. On the other hand though, his process attacking the rim is still suboptimal, as he shot just 45% on 2s in the U19 FIBA World Cup this summer. It’s relatively likely he’s such a nuclear shooter that it doesn’t really matter, as a 87% FT shooter on nearly 400 attempts, but I absolutely need to see him put his newfound length to better use at the rim.
Disruptive 2-guard with the optimal shot profile for today’s NBA.
2024-2025 NCAA Per 40 Splits: 16.3 PTS/ 5.9 REBS/ 3.6 ASTS on 1.7 A/TO, 2.8 STLS & 1.4 BLKS on 1.5 STKS PER FOUL, 84.6 FT%, 30.1 3P%, 46.6 eFG%, 51.8 TS%, 30.6% FTr, 56.8% 3PAr, 23.3 USG% in 30 games
What I’m Watching For: Will the 2P scoring climb above 50%?
Win the possession battle & get up 3s. That’s the dominant philosophy around the league, areas of influence Miles Byrd has his hands all over. He’s simply one of the more prolific disruptors the collegiate game has seen, while getting up 3s at nearly 12 per 100 possessions. Most of the players who have paired a 4+ STL% with a bunch of 3P volume don’t become NBA players, as they’re usually diminutive guards who can’t stand on their own 2 feet in the league. At 6’7, Byrd is the tallest player in the Barttorvik database to attempt 10+ 3P/100 poss with a 4+ STL%, which combined with some added weight, should make him a sure-fire NBA player.
Rare intersection of nuclear defensive playmaking, assist volume & strong decision making.
2024-2025 NCAA Per 40 Splits: 15.7 PTS/ 5.4 REBS/ 6.0 ASTS on 2.0 A/TO, 2.25 STLS & 1.0 BLKS on 0.7 STKS PER FOUL, 77.1 FT%, 40.0 3P%, 54.0 eFG%, 61.4 TS%, 79.5% FTr, 28.4% 3PAr, 19.5 USG% in 33 games
What I’m Watching For: Can Anthony increase his overall scoring aggressiveness (especially the 3P volume)?
There’s too much defensive playmaking here for me to not be intrigued by Anthony Robinson, but he HAS to grow as a scorer to be viable on-ball.
Insanely functional athlete who feasted at the rim in transition AND the half-court.
2024-2025 NCAA DII Per 40 Splits: 24.4 PTS/ 11.3 REBS/ 3.0 ASTS on 0.9 A/TO, 3.5 STLS & 0.3 BLKS on 1.15 STKS PER FOUL, 80.7 FT%, 45.6 3P%, 62.5 eFG%, 67.3 TS%, 57.8% FTr, 16.7% 3PAr, 27.4 USG% in 31 games
What I’m Watching For: Has he developed any go-to counters when the rim is walled off?
You have to really dominate D2 to make the leap to the NBA, which Freeman has already proven. A near 30% transition frequency paired with a 21.6% drive frequency is perpetual rim pressure & Freeman is a special enough athlete to be a real weapon.
Potential creator bet who was pigeonholed into an off-ball role as a freshman.
2024-2025 NCAA Per 40 Splits: 28.5 PTS/ 3.9 REBS/ 2.9 ASTS on 2.1 A/TO, 1.5 STLS & 0.1 BLKS on 0.53 STKS PER FOUL, 80.2 FT%, 38.0 3P%, 55.8 eFG%, 59.3 TS%, 29.5% FTr, 68.0% 3PAr, 16.7 USG% in 35 games
What I’m Watching For: Can he maintain his ludicrous efficiency & decision making with more on-ball equity?
Similar to Philon, Lovett legend Christian Anderson was asked to produce in an off-ball role and excelled as a freshman. A select few freshmen exhibited efficiency at the rim and from 3 last season, a list including 2025 draft picks Flagg, Knueppel & Carter Bryant.
Anderson has the potential to showcase that same impact at a higher on-ball%, which would send him soaring up my board.
Physically dominant wing with the functional size to wreak havoc on both ends.
Pre-NCAA Per 40 Splits: 29 PTS/ 10.2 REBS/ 2.2 ASTS on 0.7 A/TO, 2.6 STLS & 1.3 BLKS on 1.03 STKS PER FOUL, 73.8% FT%, 32.6% 3P%, 55.3% eFG%, 58.5% TS%, 29.0% FTr, 28.2% 3Pr, 30.3 USG% in 85 games
What I’m Watching For: Can he exhibit more on-ball creation ability?
Tounde was such a ridiculously prolific scorer at the high-school level, which made it shocking to learn so many of his points came out of play-finishing playtypes. His evaluation is an excellent case study of how important access to stats really is, as Yessoufou’s creation frequency in tracked games was just 5%, with 50% of his buckets coming off of post-ups and cuts.
Even without coming across that data, I would’ve been lower on Tounde due to the ast/to ratio, the barely above 1 stocks/foul ratio and his low 3PR.
1-man wrecking crew on defense.
2024-2025 NCAA Per 40 Splits: 10.1 PTS/ 10.9 REBS/ 1.7 ASTS on 1.0 A/TO, 1.8 STLS & 3.6 BLKS on 0.95 STKS PER FOUL, 53.8 FT%, 27.3 3P%, 53.2 eFG%, 53.7 TS%, 37.8% FTr, 0.6% 3PAr, 16.7 USG% in 40 games
What I’m Watching For: Can he give me even the slightest hint of NBA viability on offense (FT% development, passing leap, stronger rim finishing #s)?
Outside of Quantaince, Tugler is the best defender in college basketball by my estimation. Houston has been featuring him more in the offense, which may give him enough dev to not be overly destructive on O in the league.
There are plenty of other freshman and international players I didn’t cover above who I’ll be paying close attention to throughout the season. Neo Avdalas had an explosive game vs Providence, but I’m holding all thoughts on him until conference play, as he’s historically been extremely streaky. Kington Flemmings could pop if Sampson gives him enough PT at Houston, Jordan Scott is one of my favorite sleepers and Sebastian Williams-Adams could end the season as Auburn’s best NBA prospect. Luigi Suigo could be KK Mega’s next NBA player as a talented big, Dash Daniels isn’t quite the savant his brother is on defense but he’s firmly ahead of where Dyson was at his age on offense (and is the youngest player in the class), Johann Gruenloh and Eric Reibe will probably dominate the NCAA and Adam Atamna could see a late rise.
I’m still keeping close tabs on Florida’s juniors, Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh. I would’ve had Texas’ Dailyn Swain in the 1st round if he came out in the 2025 Draft. The returning bigs intrigue me as well, I think Henri Veesar will really shine on offense at UNC. Zvonimir Ivisic, Flory Bidunga and Jacob Cofie are on my radar, plus Morez Johnson Jr could bring some tenacity to Michigan’s frontcourt (which will hopefully demand more of a motor from Mara). Cameron Carr and Isaiah Evans are well positioned to have large impacts for their respective teams, while Nate Bittle, Braden Smith and Richie Saunders may be too productive to ignore.
I hope you all enjoyed this article, I’ll be referencing it throughout the cycle during individual prospects’ deep-dives as well as during checkpoints throughout (conference play, tournament play, etc.). I’m also working on some proprietary prospect/rookie stats tracking that will be made available to paying subscribers on my website, so stay tuned!
About the author
I’m a lifelong basketball enthusiast who blends film study and advanced analytics in my independent coverage of basketball and the NBA Draft across Tiktok, Twitter, Youtube, Substack and Instagram. I’ve also covered the Hawks for ~2 years as an accredited digital journalist for Afro News, and I am a member of the Atlanta Hawks’ Creators Collective.
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