The NBA’s “baseball-style series” has been one of the better changes in the Silver era, reducing travel while juicing the competitiveness by having teams rematch one another so quickly. It also allows for an approximation of the types of matchup adjustments teams make in the playoffs. How will the Spurs adjust their coverages vs Steph Curry? Can the Warriors dominate the turnover battle again?

Injury Report:

GSW: Out — Jonathan Kuminga (bilateral knee tendinitis), De’Anthony Melton (left knee recovery)

SAS: Out — Dylan Harper (calf strain), Questionable — Julian Champagnie (back)

Rest Advantages:

GSW: 1 day of rest, SAS: 1 day of rest

Projected Starters:

GSW: Steph Curry, Will Richard, Moses Moody, Jimmy Butler III, Draymond Green

SAS: De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Victor Wembanyama

Golden State’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

San Antonio’s Top 5 Most Played Lineups:

Golden State’s Offense vs San Antonio’s Defense

Curry scored 46 points on Wednesday, but could’ve easily went for 55+, as he underperformed on the quality of shots he was able to generate against Stephon Castle & Devin Vassell.

Charlie Cummings has an excellent thread showcasing why Castle’s struggles containing Curry off-ball led to him picking up 3 fouls in the 3rd quarter, which forced Mitch Johnson to ask Vassell & Champagnie to try and contain Steph. That resulted in TWENTY-TWO third quarter points from Wardell the 2nd. San Antonio got carved to death with split cuts in these minutes, with the screening defenders’ lack of engagement leaving Champagnie on an island by himself.

Wemby’s rim deterrence is why San Antonio “allows” the highest % of opponent FGA from the long midrange, but he can’t impact these types of lost assignments against such a perimeter-oriented team. Curry was 1 for 7 from 3 before he snuck wide open for this 3, then scored 17 points in the next 7 minutes.

Curry is of course the biggest threat in the Warriors offense, but this system continues to demand off-ball engagement from their opponents whether he’s on the floor or not. This stagger action with a twirl variation fooled every Spurs weakside defender.

These types of breakdowns aren’t fixed in a day’s time, so San Antonio will need to ask Wemby to be at the level of the screen even more than he did on Wednesday. That may necessitate more lineups with Sochan as the weakside rim protector.

San Antonio’s Offense vs Golden State’s Defense

San Antonio’s best chance at succeeding offensively actually starts with their ability to prevent Golden State from putting the ball in the basket.

The Warriors are old and susceptible to cross-matches on the fast break (24th in transition defense), but they are the BEST defense in the league after a made shot, allowing just 1.06 points per possession. San Antonio scored just .82 PPP in the halfcourt on Wednesday (10th%), which negated their ability to add 5.9 PTS per 100 in transition, as just 14% of their possessions were in transition.

As we covered above, the Spurs have a better chance adjusting their pace than limiting Golden State’s offense, they need more possessions like the one below…

and not ones where they squander precious transition possessions.

At first glance, it would appear GSW & SAS had similar turnover issues, as the Warriors had 18 and the Spurs had 24. This is why live ball turnovers are massive though, as San Antonio had THIRTEEN live ball TOs to Golden State’s 5.

Ball security has been an issue for San Antonio, which starts with the way teams defend Wembanyama. GSW will consistently bring a tagger EARLY to meet Wemby on the catch, San Antonio can counter with exit-screens/lifts, etc., but it’s also on Victor to understand how Golden State wants to pass off assignments. Fox (or whoever’s on-ball) can also try to beat the help by skipping the ball to the corner while Wemby dives out of the screen.

Key Action for the Spurs:

San Antonio was able to find success bringing Curry’s defender into ghost screens, forcing GSW’s backline to help. The Warriors defense is far too shrewd for simple actions like this to work over and over again, so the Spurs will need to rope him into multiple actions to actually put a dent into the Dubs’ halfcourt defense.

The Verdict

The Spurs lost by 5 in a game where they committed 8 more live ball turnovers and attempted 20 less free throws. That would normally be the type of indicator I’d bet on swinging in their favor, but I really don’t see anyway they prevent Curry and Co. from filleting their defense once again.